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This paper examines the effect of the major Canada-U.S. trade agreements on the dynamics of business cycles and productivity in Canada. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its predecessor, the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), have led to a substantial expansion of trade flows. Although common factors have played a larger role in explaining business cycles in Canada and the United States since the early 1980s, country-specific and idiosyncratic factors remain important for Canada. At the same time, while increased trade integration seems to have positively contributed to total factor productivity of Canadian industries, the persistence of structural differences between the two countries has prevented convergence of aggregate labor productivity. While these findings seem to weigh against moving toward a monetary union, they also suggest that substantial benefits could be reaped from further reducing remaining barriers to trade.
This work explains the theoretical, historical and political background of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), covering its impact and the debates surrounding its existence. The authors also introduce the theory of economic integration and post-war economic management.
This book contains selected papers first presented at the "Canada-United States Business Conference" held at the Kelley School of Business, Indiana University, on April 11-12, 2003. The set of 18 chapters in this book are grouped into three major sections. Part I deals with regional economic integration in North America, including papers on the strategies of multinational enterprises and exporting firms. In Part II, five chapters deal with financial integration in North America and the issues of a common currency.Finally, specific industry sectors and issues of public policy across the Canada-U.S. border are examined in Part III. They include: agriculture; softwood lumber; transportation; and electricity. The key issues of current interest and concern examined include: cross border trade and security - of particular importance in the post-9/11 environment; NAFTA at age ten; and the impact of the Free Trade of the Americas (FTAA) on NAFTA; and, the FTAA and civil society. The key policy areas discussed included regulation, labor mobility, productivity, and specific sectoral issues (energy, transportation, etc.). In addition to this examination of key research issues, authors also explore managerial and public policy implications of their findings.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Pamphlet comprising two studies, one of economic integration in North America, and the other on regional level economic blocs - includes the nature of economic integration (incl. Patterns of trade, investment, tourism, business cycle and monetary relations, trade union and labour force linkages), problems (incl. Attitudes of Mexico, Canada and the USA), definition of economic blocs, the shape of future economic relations, etc. References and statistical tables.
Formal analysis of economic synchronization in North America is scarce. In this document we conduct an econometric exercise to determine the existence of common movements at short-run and long-run horizons among the gross domestic products of Canada, Mexico and the United States. Cointegration and common features tests suggest a significant degree of economic interdependence. In particular, for the sample period 1980-2006 we identify the existence of a common trend and two common cycles. Interestingly, we find that the North American economies have been highly synchronized since the 1980's; a common trend and a common cycle are identified for the sub-sample period 1980-1993. We conclude that the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was not the trigger that prompted economic integration, but primarily an event that contributed to strengthen a process that had already begun.