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This paper examines the factors and constraints that affect recent and potential growth in Croatia, as well as policies that can influence it. On current productivity trends, it estimates Croatia's potential growth rate at 4-41⁄2 percent, a result reasonably robust to different methodologies. To sustain growth at a higher rate in line with the authorities' aspirations, the analysis highlights the critical need to improve the business environment through further measures to reduce the administrative burden, legal uncertainties, and corruption. It also emphasizes the importance of attracting more greenfield foreign direct investment, and reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy through fiscal consolidation and faster privatization.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Croatia continued its third year of positive economic growth in 2017. Growth is expected to stay at similar levels in the near future but to decelerate over the medium term. Consumer prices increased at a moderate pace and wage growth was also moderate as unemployment remained high. The external current account is expected to record another strong surplus, underpinned by robust performance of exports and tourism and lower repatriation of profits as banks absorbed losses from Agrokor. The balance of risks has improved but vulnerabilities remain sizable as public and external debt levels are still high, and the full impact of the Agrokor restructuring is yet unknown.
This paper reviews the relationship between real GDP growth and domestic bank lending to the private sector in Croatia after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), drawing on a cross-country analysis of European countries. Croatia’s recession was substantially longer compared to peers due to both domestic and external factors. Bank credit to the private sector was found to be important for economic growth, but less than often perceived, especially during a boom–bust cycle. Using empirical analysis, this paper confirms that the deleveraging of the private sector, particularly nonfinancial companies, was slow and contributed to Croatia’s prolonged recession. When provisions of nonperforming loans (NPLs) improved and the uncertainty following the GFC receded, credit supply increased, while demand for credit hesitantly picked up with the strengthening of the recovery. The paper thus reinforces that NPLs and how they are handled as well as real growth are important determinants for credit. These findings are supported by the cross-country analysis and corroborated by other studies.
Covers mainly the 1990s.
This book examines Croatia's economic and political transformation over the last 30 years. It brings together the best political scientists, macroeconomists and public finance experts from Croatia to provide an in-depth analysis of the Croatian policy-making context and the impact of Europeanization upon its domestic institutional framework. The second part of the book scrutinizes the political economy context and Croatia's long-term macroeconomic under-performance, especially in comparison to other transition economies. The final part explores sectoral public policies, including cohesion policy, education, health, pensions, and local government. The book offers a unique blend of Croatia's political economy framework and public policy analysis.