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Thirty years of Ä?ổi Má»›i (economic renovation) reforms have catapulted Vietnam from the ranks of the world’s poorest countries to one of its great development success stories. Critical ingredients have been visionary leaders, a sense of shared societal purpose, and a focus on the future. Starting in the late 1980s, these elements were successfully fused with the embrace of markets and the global economy. Economic growth since then has been rapid, stable, and inclusive, translating into strong welfare gains for the vast majority of the population. But three decades of success from reforms raises expectations for the future, as aptly captured in the Vietnamese constitution, which sets the goal of “a prosperous people and a strong, democratic, equitable, and civilized country.†? There is a firm aspiration that by 2035, Vietnam will be a modern and industrialized nation moving toward becoming a prosperous, creative, equitable, and democratic society. The Vietnam 2035 report, a joint undertaking of the Government of Vietnam and the World Bank Group, seeks to better comprehend the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. It shows that the country’s aspirations and the supporting policy and institutional agenda stand on three pillars: balancing economic prosperity with environmental sustainability; promoting equity and social inclusion to develop a harmonious middle- class society; and enhancing the capacity and accountability of the state to establish a rule of law state and a democratic society. Vietnam 2035 further argues that the rapid growth needed to achieve the bold aspirations will be sustained only if it stands on faster productivity growth and reflects the costs of environmental degradation. Productivity growth, in turn, will benefit from measures to enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises, scale up the benefits of urban agglomeration, and build national technological and innovative capacity. Maintaining the record on equity and social inclusion will require lifting marginalized groups and delivering services to an aging and urbanizing middle-class society. And to fulfill the country’s aspirations, the institutions of governance will need to become modern, transparent, and fully rooted in the rule of law.
This book sheds light on social policies in six South Asian countries introduced between 2003 and 2013, examining the ways in which these policies have come about, and what this reflects about the nature of the state in each of these countries. It offers a detailed analysis of the nature of these policies introduced in recent years in Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and illustrates the similarities and differences in policy approaches amongst the six countries. Through this analysis, the book explores the thesis of whether there is a particular type of ‘developmental welfare state’ that can be observed across South Asia. The focus is on social policies or policies designed to address poverty and deliver welfare at the level of programming and design, i.e. the stated intent of these policies. The book also presents an analysis of the fiscal space available in each of the six countries, thereby drawing conclusions about the financial feasibility of a ‘developmental welfare state’ model in the region. This comprehensive book uniquely explores critical aspects of policy debates on a possible move from welfare to ‘rights’. It introduces students and researchers in development studies, social policy and South Asian studies to innovative welfare programmes in South Asia and gives a new perspective on the nature and patterns of welfare in South Asia with the view of tackling inequality and promoting well-being.
This volume brings together frontline research on the prospects for rapid economic development in South Asia by leading academics and public policy experts. It reviews recent macroeconomic performance in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka and examines three emergent challenges for the Indian economy: devising a policy response to climate change, attaining the millennium development goals and restructuring state level finances. The book then analyzes financial sector reforms and development of information and communications technology (ICT) firms and privatization policy in India and the South Asian approach to free trade arrangements and multilateral trade. It studies issues related to foreign perceptions of South Asian development including governance and foreign direct investment flows into India and Nepal. Finally the book studies the impact of the structural composition of economic growth on poverty in India, the evolution of inequality in India and elements of a strategy for poverty reduction in South Asia.
This book addresses issues affecting growth and employment in South Asia. It looks at the policies and institutions that could propel the region towards higher growth.
Since the mid-1980s, durable reforms coupled with prudent macroeconomic management have brought steady progress to the South Asia region, making it one of the world’s fastest growing regions. Real GDP growth has steadily increased from an average of about 3 percent in the 1970s to 7 percent over the last decade. Although growth trajectories varied across countries, reforms supported strong per capita income growth in the region, lifting over 200 million people out of poverty in the last three decades. Today, South Asia accounts for one-fifth of the world’s population and, thanks to India’s increasing performance, contributes to over 15 percent of global growth. Looking ahead, the authors find that South Asia is poised to play an even bigger role in the global economy, in both relative and absolute terms. India has overtaken China as the fastest growing large economy and South Asia’s contribution to global growth is set to increase, while more mature economies decelerate. Greater economic diversification, with an expansion of the service sector, improvements in education, and a still sizable demographic dividend are among the key elements underpinning this performance. Based on demographic trends, more than 150 million people in the region are expected to enter the labor market by 2030. This young and large workforce can be South Asia’s strength, if supported by a successful high-quality and job-rich growth strategy. Amid a changing global economic landscape, the authors argue that South Asia will need to leverage on all sectors of the economy in a balanced way, supporting improvements in agricultural productivity and a sustainable expansion of manufacturing, while promoting higher-skill services, to achieve this goal.
South Asia has grown rapidly with significant reductions in poverty, but it has not been able to match the fast-growing working age population, leading to lingering concerns about jobless growth and poor job quality. Could export growth in South Asia result in better labor market outcomes? The answer is yes, according to our study, which rigorously estimates—using a new methodology—the potential impact from higher South Asian exports per worker on wages and employment over a 10-year period. Our study shows the positive side of trade. It finds that increasing exports per worker would result in higher wages—mainly for better-off groups, like more educated workers, males, and more-experienced workers—although less-skilled workers would see the largest reduction in informality. How can the benefits be spread more widely? Our study suggests that scaling up exports in labor-intensive industries could significantly lower informality for groups like rural and less-educated workers in the region. Also, increasing skills, and participation of women and young workers in the labor force could make an even bigger dent in informal employment. The region could achieve these gains by: (i) boosting and connecting exports to people (e.g., removing trade barriers and investment in infrastructure); (ii) eliminating distortions in production (e.g., by more efficient allocation of inputs); and (iii) protecting workers (e.g., by investing in education and skills).
During the 1990s, the governments of South Asian countries acted as ‘facilitators’ to attract FDI. As a result, the inflow of FDI increased. However, to become an attractive FDI destination as China, Singapore, or Brazil, South Asia has to improve the local conditions of doing business. This book, based on research that blends theory, empirical evidence, and policy, asks and attempts to answer a few core questions relevant to FDI policy in South Asian countries: Which major reforms have succeeded? What are the factors that influence FDI inflows? What has been the impact of FDI on macroeconomic performance? Which policy priorities/reforms needed to boost FDI are pending? These questions and answers should interest policy makers, academics, and all those interested in FDI in the South Asian region and in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
The 2021 edition of the Outlook addresses reallocation of resources to digitalisation in response to COVID-19, with special focuses on health, education and Industry 4.0. During the COVID-19 crisis, digitalisation has proved critical to ensuring the continuity of essential services.
South Asia is in the midst of a demographic transition. For the next three decades, the growth of the region’s working age population will far outpace the growth of dependents. Close to one million individuals will enter the workforce every month. This large, economically active population can increase the region’s capacity to save and make crucial investments in physical capital, job training, and technological advancement. But for South Asia to realize these dividends, it must ensure that its working-age population is productively employed. As one of the most prominent labor-intensive industries in developing countries, apparel manufacturing is a prime contender. With around 4.7 million workers in the formal sector and another estimated 20.3 million informally employed (combined with textiles), apparel already constitutes close to 40 percent of manufacturing employment. And given that much of apparel production continues to be labor-intensive, the potential to create more and better jobs is immense. There is a huge window of opportunity now for South Asia, given that China, the dominant producer for the last ten years, has started to cede some ground due to higher wages. But the region faces strong competition from East Asia—with Cambodia, Indonesia, and Vietnam already pulling ahead. Plus the sector suffers from production inefficiencies and policy bottlenecks that have prevented it from achieving its potential. Against this backdrop, this report hopes to inform the debate by measuring the employment gains that the four most populous countries in South Asia—Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (hereafter `SAR countries’)—can expect in this new environment of increased competition and scrutiny. Its main message is that it is important for South Asian economies to remove existing impediments and facilitate growth in apparel to capture more production and create more employment as wages rise in China. The successful manufacturers will be those who can supply a wide range of quality products to buyers rapidly and reliably—not just offer low costs.
Resurgent Asia analyses the phenomenal transformation of Asia, which would have been difficult to imagine, let alone predict, fifty years ago, when Gunnar Myrdal published Asian Drama. In doing so, it provides an analytical narrative of this remarkable story of economic development, situated in its wider context of historical, political, and social factors, and an economic analysis of the underlying factors, with a focus on critical issues in the process of, and outcomes in, development. In 1970, Asia was the poorest continent in the world, marginal except for its large population. By 2016, it accounted for three-tenths of world income, two-fifths of world manufacturing, and one-third of world trade, while its income per capita converged towards the world average. However, this transformation was associated with unequal outcomes across countries and between people. The analysis disaggregates Asia into its four constituent sub-regions--East, Southeast, South, and West--and further into fourteen economies--China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka--which account for more than four-fifths of its population and income. This book enhances our understanding of development processes and outcomes in Asia over the past fifty years, draws out the analytical conclusions that contribute to contemporary debates on development, and highlights some lessons from the Asian experience for countries elsewhere. It is the first to examine the phenomenal changes that are transforming economies in Asia and shifting the balance of economic power in the world, while reflecting on the future prospects in Asia over the next twenty-five years. A rich, engaging, and fascinating read.