Download Free Economic Demographic Forecasts Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Economic Demographic Forecasts and write the review.

How the world's demographic and socio-economic landscape will change over the next two decades Tomorrow's World maps out the world's near future through the lens of demography, dealing with issues of health and wealth; death and taxes; buying and selling; education and progress; and how and where we choose to live. The last century saw the world's population quadruple, the emergence of mega-cities and increased urbanisation, and large changes in fertility, mortality, healthcare, education, and income. The world we live in today was profoundly shaped by those changes. This book looks at what's happening now and how demographic changes will reshape the twenty-first century. It highlights the most significant current demographic realities and explains the implications they'll have for our near future. If you run a business, manage a brand, or just want to know what the future looks like, Tomorrow's World is a must-read. A vitally important look at demographic trends how they will effect labour, education, population, economics, and business in this century Written by the founder and Managing Director of Global Demographics Ltd., a leading demographic agency that consults with companies on market and business planning A must-read book for economists, financial analysts, brand managers, and business leaders If you ever wanted to know what tomorrow's world will look like, you have to start by looking at the world today. This book reveals how the experts expect our socio-economic landscape to evolve, identifying threats and opportunities along the way.
Population change and population forecasts are receiving considerable attention from governmental planners and policy-makers, as well as from the private sector. Old patterns of population redistribution, industrial location, labor-force participation, household formation, and fertility are changing. The resulting uncertainty has increased interest in forecasting because mere extrapolations of past trends are proving inadequate. In the United States of America popUlation forecasts received even more attention after federal agencies began distributing funds for capital infrastructure to state and local governments on the basis of projected future populations. If the national government had based those funding decisions on locally prepared projections, the optimism of local officials would have resulted in billions of dollars worth of excess capacity in sewage treatment plants alone. Cabinet-level inquiries concluded that the U. S. Department of Commerce should (1) assume the responsibility for developing a single set of projections for use whenever future population was a consideration in federal spending decisions and (2) develop methods which incorporate both economic and demographic factors causing population change. Neither the projections prepared by economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis nor those prepared by demographers at the Bureau of the Census were considered satisfactory because neither method adequately recognized the intertwined nature of demographic and economic change. Against this background, the American Statistical Association (ASA) and the U. S.
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
The United Nations population estimates and projections form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. They are used in the calculation of many of the key development indicators commonly used by the United Nations system, including for more than one third of the indicators used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2019 revision presents population estimates from 1950 until the present for 235 countries or areas, which have been developed through country-specific analyses of historical demographic trends. It builds on previous revisions by incorporating additional results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as information from vital registration and recent nationally representative household sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. These Highlights summarise key population trends described by the estimates and projections presented in World Population Prospects 2019.
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Originally published in 1989. ECESIS consists of 51 regional econometric models (one for each state and the District of Columbia) and a multiregional demographic model. Its distinguishing feature is the linking of sophisticated demographic accounts with sophisticated structural econometric models. This book, looking at how strong the interactions are between population dynamics and economic activity, determines to what extent the simultaneous economic-demographic interregional model provides improved projection and simulation properties over regional economic and demographic models used independently of one another.
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.