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The contents of this volume comprise the proceedings of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics conference held in 1987 at the IC^T2 (Innovation, Creativity, and Capital) Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. The essays present fundamental new research on the analysis of complicated outcomes in relatively simple macroeconomic models. The book covers econometric modelling and time series analysis techniques in five parts. Part I focuses on sunspot equilibria, the study of uncertainty generated by nonstochastic economic models. Part II examines the more traditional examples of deterministic chaos: bubbles, instability, and hyperinflation. Part III contains the most current literature dealing with empirical tests for chaos and strange attractors. Part IV deals with chaos and informational complexity. Part V, Nonlinear Econometric Modelling, includes tests for and applications of nonlinearity.
The Principle of Large Numbers indicates that macro fluctuations have weak microfoundations; persistent business cycles and interrupted technologies can be better characterized by macro vitality and meso foundations. Economic growth is limited by market extent and ecological constraints. The trade-off between stability and complexity is the foundation of cultural diversity and mixed economies. The new science of complexity sheds light on the sources of economic instability and complexity. This book consists of the major work of Professor Ping Chen, a pioneer in studying economic chaos and economic complexity. They are selected from works completed since 1987, including original research on the evolutionary dynamics of the division of labour, empirical and theoretical studies of economic chaos and stochastic models of collective behavior. Offering a new perspective on market instability and the changing world order, the basic pillars in equilibrium economics are challenged by solid evidence of economic complexity and time asymmetry, including Friedman’s theory of exogenous money and efficient market, the Frisch model of noise-driven cycles, the Lucas model of microfoundations and rational expectations, the Black-Scholes model of option pricing, and the Coase theory of transaction costs. Throughout, a general theory based on complex evolutionary economics is developed, which integrates different insights from Marx, Marshall, Schumpeter, Keynes and offers a new understanding of the evolutionary history of division of labour. This book will be of interest to postgraduates and researchers in Economics, including macroeconomics, financial economics, advanced econometrics and economic methodology.
This book presents the state-of-the-art in non-linear dynamics and sunspots. These two topics have been the core of an international conference on instability and public policies in a globalized world, organized at Aix-Marseille School of Economics and GREQAM in honor of Jean-Michel Grandmont. He has made significant contributions on general equilibrium theory, monetary theory, learning, aggregation, non-linear dynamics and sunspots. This book assembles contributions by Jean-Michel Grandmont's colleagues, students and friends that have been influenced by his works and that are at the frontier of research in this domain today.
The plan to publish the present book arose while I was preparing a joint work with Gunter Gabisch (Gabisch, G. /Lorenz, H. -W. : Business Cycle Theory. Berlin-Heidel berg-New York: Springer). It turned out that a lot of interesting material could only be sketched in a business cycle text, either because the relevance for business cycle theory was not evident or because the material required an interest in dynamical economics which laid beyond the scope of a survey text for advanced undergraduates. While much of the material enclosed in this book can be found in condensed and sometimes more or less identical form in that business cycle text, the present monograph attempts to present nonlinear dynamical economics in a broader context with economic examples from other fields than business cycle theory. It is a pleasure for me to acknowledge the critical comments, extremely detailed remarks, or suggestions by many friends and colleagues. The responses to earlier versions of the manuscript by W. A. Barnett, M. Boldrin, W. A. Brock, C. Chiarella, C. Dale, G. Feichtinger, P. Flaschel, D. K. Foley, R. M. Goodwin, D. Kelsey, M. Lines, A. Medio, L. Montrucchio, P. Read, C. Sayers, A. Schmutzler, H. Schnabl, G. Silverberg, H. -\'\!. Sinn, J. Sterman, and R. Tscherning not only encouraged me to publish the book in its present form but helped to remove numerous errors (not only typographic ones) and conceptnal misunderstandings and flaws. Particular thanks go to G.
Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.
The Instituts Internationaux de Physique et de Chimie fondis par E. Solvay and the Institute of Nonequilibrium systems of Beijing Normal University jointly sponsored a conference on "The Complexity and Self-organization in Socio economic Systems" on October 17-20, 1994 at Beijing, China. The purpose of the conference was to explore the complexity and evolutionary laws of socio economic systems through nonlinear dynamic systems and self-organization theory. The conference was chaired by Professor M. Sanglier and Professor Fang Fukang and was introduced by the Nobel prize winner, Professor I. Prigogine and the vice director of the Chinese National System Reform Committee, Mr. Wu Jie. The conference was held at an important time. On the one hand, the research in the natural sciences about the evolution of complex systems has made great progress, modern scientific theories such as nonlinear dynamic system theory and self-organization theory are becoming more and more mature and a series of methods dealing with these complex systems are being developed which enable us to understand and study non equilibrium, uncertainty and instability. On the other hand, human societies around the world witness a general increase of connectedness, interactivity and an increase of reaction speeds to decisions. In this context, the deterministic, linear way of thinking becomes more and more inadequate and this stimulates the development of non linear science.
From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities presents and unusual perspective on economics and economic analysis. Current economic theory largely depends upon assuming that the world is fundamentally continuous. However, an increasing amount of economic research has been done using approaches that allow for discontinuities such as catastrophe theory, chaos theory, synergetics, and fractal geometry. The spread of such approaches across a variety of disciplines of thought has constituted a virtual intellectual revolution in recent years. This book reviews the applications of these approaches in various subdisciplines of economics and draws upon past economic thinkers to develop an integrated view of economics as a whole from the perspective of inherent discontinuity.
In a financial revolution, new determinants of performance arise and interest in the way performance is measured and communicated to stakeholders grows. This book presents a wide and accurate analysis of the impact that regulation, structural changes and new financial products have on the performance of markets and intermediaries.