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Includes papers and proceedings of the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. Covers all areas of economic research.
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Contains papers that appeal to a broad and global readership in all fields of economics.
From the Revolution until the Panic of 1837 Americans accepted state intervention in the economy as a legitimate, even an essential, function of government. The Decline of Authority examines the transformation of New York State government between 1800 and 1860, a critical period during which governmental authority diminished as most state governments withdrew from interventionist economic policies and relinquished their role in the allocation of resources to the private sector. Exploring the relationship between socioeconomic change, public economic policy, and political development, L. Ray Gunn offers an innovative explanation for the new configuration of politics and governance in New York State that emerged during this era.