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Econometrics Toolbox provides functions for modeling economic data. You can select and estimate economic models for simulation and forecasting. For time series modeling and analysis, the toolbox includes univariate Bayesian linear regression, univariate ARIMAX/GARCH composite models with several GARCH variants, multivariate VARX models, and cointegration analysis. It also provides methods for modeling economic systems using state-space models and for estimating using the Kalman filte. You can use a variety of diagnostics for model selection, including hypothesis tests, unit root, stationarity, and structural change.The more important topics in this book are the next: -"State-Space Models?" -"Kalman Filter?" -"Explicitly Create State-Space Model Containing Known Parameter Values"-"Create State-Space Model with Unknown Parameters" -"Create State-Space Model Containing ARMA State" -"Implicitly Create State-Space Model Containing Regression Component"-"Implicitly Create Diffus State-Space Model Containing Regression Component"-"Implicitly Create Time-Varying State-Space Model" -"Implicitly Create Time-Varying Diffus State-Space Model" -"Create State-Space Model with Random State Coefficient -"Estimate Time-Invariant State-Space Model" -"Estimate Time-Varying State-Space Model" -"Estimate Time-Varying Diffus State-Space Model" -"Estimate State-Space Model Containing Regression Component"-"Filter States of State-Space Model" -"Filter Time-Varying State-Space Model" -"Filter Time-Varying Diffus State-Space Model" -"Filter States of State-Space Model Containing Regression Component"-"Smooth States of State-Space Model" -"Smooth Time-Varying State-Space Model" -"Smooth Time-Varying Diffus State-Space Model" -"Smooth States of State-Space Model Containing Regression Component"-"Simulate States and Observations of Time-Invariant State-Space Model"-"Simulate Time-Varying State-Space Model" -"Simulate States of Time-Varying State-Space Model Using Simulation Smoother"-"Estimate Random Parameter of State-Space Model" -"Forecast State-Space Model Using Monte-Carlo Methods" -"Forecast State-Space Model Observations" -"Forecast Observations of State-Space Model Containing Regression Component"-"Forecast Time-Varying State-Space Model" -"Forecast State-Space Model Containing Regime Change in the Forecast Horizon"-"Forecast Time-Varying Diffus State-Space Model" -"Compare Simulation Smoother to Smoothed States" -"Rolling-Window Analysis of Time-Series Models" -"Assess State-Space Model Stability Using Rolling Window Analysis" -"Choose State-Space Model Specificatio Using Backtesting"
The state-space approach provides a formal framework where any result or procedure developed for a basic model can be seamlessly applied to a standard formulation written in state-space form. Moreover, it can accommodate with a reasonable effort nonstandard situations, such as observation errors, aggregation constraints, or missing in-sample values. Exploring the advantages of this approach, State-Space Methods for Time Series Analysis: Theory, Applications and Software presents many computational procedures that can be applied to a previously specified linear model in state-space form. After discussing the formulation of the state-space model, the book illustrates the flexibility of the state-space representation and covers the main state estimation algorithms: filtering and smoothing. It then shows how to compute the Gaussian likelihood for unknown coefficients in the state-space matrices of a given model before introducing subspace methods and their application. It also discusses signal extraction, describes two algorithms to obtain the VARMAX matrices corresponding to any linear state-space model, and addresses several issues relating to the aggregation and disaggregation of time series. The book concludes with a cross-sectional extension to the classical state-space formulation in order to accommodate longitudinal or panel data. Missing data is a common occurrence here, and the book explains imputation procedures necessary to treat missingness in both exogenous and endogenous variables. Web Resource The authors’ E4 MATLAB® toolbox offers all the computational procedures, administrative and analytical functions, and related materials for time series analysis. This flexible, powerful, and free software tool enables readers to replicate the practical examples in the text and apply the procedures to their own work.
This book provides a comprehensive and concrete illustration of time series analysis focusing on the state-space model, which has recently attracted increasing attention in a broad range of fields. The major feature of the book lies in its consistent Bayesian treatment regarding whole combinations of batch and sequential solutions for linear Gaussian and general state-space models: MCMC and Kalman/particle filter. The reader is given insight on flexible modeling in modern time series analysis. The main topics of the book deal with the state-space model, covering extensively, from introductory and exploratory methods to the latest advanced topics such as real-time structural change detection. Additionally, a practical exercise using R/Stan based on real data promotes understanding and enhances the reader’s analytical capability.
Economic Models for Industrial Organization focuses on the specification and estimation of econometric models for research in industrial organization. In recent decades, empirical work in industrial organization has moved towards dynamic and equilibrium models, involving econometric methods which have features distinct from those used in other areas of applied economics. These lecture notes, aimed for a first or second-year PhD course, motivate and explain these econometric methods, starting from simple models and building to models with the complexity observed in typical research papers. The covered topics include discrete-choice demand analysis, models of dynamic behavior and dynamic games, multiple equilibria in entry games and partial identification, and auction models.
Bayesian Inference of State Space Models: Kalman Filtering and Beyond offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian estimation and forecasting for state space models. The celebrated Kalman filter, with its numerous extensions, takes centre stage in the book. Univariate and multivariate models, linear Gaussian, non-linear and non-Gaussian models are discussed with applications to signal processing, environmetrics, economics and systems engineering. Over the past years there has been a growing literature on Bayesian inference of state space models, focusing on multivariate models as well as on non-linear and non-Gaussian models. The availability of time series data in many fields of science and industry on the one hand, and the development of low-cost computational capabilities on the other, have resulted in a wealth of statistical methods aimed at parameter estimation and forecasting. This book brings together many of these methods, presenting an accessible and comprehensive introduction to state space models. A number of data sets from different disciplines are used to illustrate the methods and show how they are applied in practice. The R package BTSA, created for the book, includes many of the algorithms and examples presented. The book is essentially self-contained and includes a chapter summarising the prerequisites in undergraduate linear algebra, probability and statistics. An up-to-date and complete account of state space methods, illustrated by real-life data sets and R code, this textbook will appeal to a wide range of students and scientists, notably in the disciplines of statistics, systems engineering, signal processing, data science, finance and econometrics. With numerous exercises in each chapter, and prerequisite knowledge conveniently recalled, it is suitable for upper undergraduate and graduate courses.
State-space models as an important mathematical tool has been widely used in many different fields. This edited collection explores recent theoretical developments of the models and their applications in economics and finance. The book includes nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series models, regime-switching and hidden Markov models, continuous- or discrete-time state processes, and models of equally-spaced or irregularly-spaced (discrete or continuous) observations. The contributed chapters are divided into four parts. The first part is on Particle Filtering and Parameter Learning in Nonlinear State-Space Models. The second part focuses on the application of Linear State-Space Models in Macroeconomics and Finance. The third part deals with Hidden Markov Models, Regime Switching and Mathematical Finance and the fourth part is on Nonlinear State-Space Models for High Frequency Financial Data. The book will appeal to graduate students and researchers studying state-space modeling in economics, statistics, and mathematics, as well as to finance professionals.
State space time series analysis emerged in the 1960s in engineering, but its applications have spread to other fields. Durbin (statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science) and Koopman (econometrics, Free U., Amsterdam) extol the virtues of such models over the main analytical system currently used for time series data, Box-Jenkins' ARIMA. What distinguishes state space time models is that they separately model components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements and disturbance terms. Part I focuses on traditional and new techniques based on the linear Gaussian model. Part II presents new material extending the state space model to non-Gaussian observations. c. Book News Inc.
The state-space approach provides a formal framework where any result or procedure developed for a basic model can be seamlessly applied to a standard formulation written in state-space form. Moreover, it can accommodate with a reasonable effort nonstandard situations, such as observation errors, aggregation constraints, or missing in-sample values. Exploring the advantages of this approach, State-Space Methods for Time Series Analysis: Theory, Applications and Software presents many computational procedures that can be applied to a previously specified linear model in state-space form. After discussing the formulation of the state-space model, the book illustrates the flexibility of the state-space representation and covers the main state estimation algorithms: filtering and smoothing. It then shows how to compute the Gaussian likelihood for unknown coefficients in the state-space matrices of a given model before introducing subspace methods and their application. It also discusses signal extraction, describes two algorithms to obtain the VARMAX matrices corresponding to any linear state-space model, and addresses several issues relating to the aggregation and disaggregation of time series. The book concludes with a cross-sectional extension to the classical state-space formulation in order to accommodate longitudinal or panel data. Missing data is a common occurrence here, and the book explains imputation procedures necessary to treat missingness in both exogenous and endogenous variables. Web Resource The authors’ E4 MATLAB® toolbox offers all the computational procedures, administrative and analytical functions, and related materials for time series analysis. This flexible, powerful, and free software tool enables readers to replicate the practical examples in the text and apply the procedures to their own work.
Not only do modeling and simulation help provide a better understanding of how real-world systems function, they also enable us to predict system behavior before a system is actually built and analyze systems accurately under varying operating conditions. Modeling and Simulation of Systems Using MATLAB® and Simulink® provides comprehensive, state-of-the-art coverage of all the important aspects of modeling and simulating both physical and conceptual systems. Various real-life examples show how simulation plays a key role in understanding real-world systems. The author also explains how to effectively use MATLAB and Simulink software to successfully apply the modeling and simulation techniques presented. After introducing the underlying philosophy of systems, the book offers step-by-step procedures for modeling different types of systems using modeling techniques, such as the graph-theoretic approach, interpretive structural modeling, and system dynamics modeling. It then explores how simulation evolved from pre-computer days into the current science of today. The text also presents modern soft computing techniques, including artificial neural networks, fuzzy systems, and genetic algorithms, for modeling and simulating complex and nonlinear systems. The final chapter addresses discrete systems modeling. Preparing both undergraduate and graduate students for advanced modeling and simulation courses, this text helps them carry out effective simulation studies. In addition, graduate students should be able to comprehend and conduct simulation research after completing this book.
Illustrates Bayesian theory and application through a series of exercises in question and answer format.