Download Free Dynamic Extreme Value Theory Devt Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Dynamic Extreme Value Theory Devt and write the review.

This richly illustrated book describes statistical extreme value theory for the quantification of natural hazards, such as strong winds, floods and rainfall, and discusses an interdisciplinary approach to allow the theoretical methods to be applied. The approach consists of a number of steps: data selection and correction, non-stationary theory (to account for trends due to climate change), and selecting appropriate estimation techniques based on both decision-theoretic features (e.g., Bayesian theory), empirical robustness and a valid treatment of uncertainties. It also examines and critically reviews alternative approaches based on stochastic and dynamic numerical models, as well as recently emerging data analysis issues and presents large-scale, multidisciplinary, state-of-the-art case studies. Intended for all those with a basic knowledge of statistical methods interested in the quantification of natural hazards, the book is also a valuable resource for engineers conducting risk analyses in collaboration with scientists from other fields (such as hydrologists, meteorologists, climatologists).
This book is a comprehensive guide to extreme value theory in engineering. Written for the end user with intermediate and advanced statistical knowledge, it covers classical methods as well as recent advances. A collection of 150 examples illustrates the theoretical results and takes the reader from simple applications through complex cases of dependence.
It appears that we live in an age of disasters: the mighty Missis sippi and Missouri flood millions of acres, earthquakes hit Tokyo and California, airplanes crash due to mechanical failure and the seemingly ever increasing wind speeds make the storms more and more frightening. While all these may seem to be unexpected phenomena to the man on the street, they are actually happening according to well defined rules of science known as extreme value theory. We know that records must be broken in the future, so if a flood design is based on the worst case of the past then we are not really prepared against floods. Materials will fail due to fatigue, so if the body of an aircraft looks fine to the naked eye, it might still suddenly fail if the aircraft has been in operation over an extended period of time. Our theory has by now penetrated the so cial sciences, the medical profession, economics and even astronomy. We believe that our field has come of age. In or~er to fully utilize the great progress in the theory of extremes and its ever increasing acceptance in practice, an international conference was organized in which equal weight was given to theory and practice. This book is Volume I of the Proceedings of this conference. In selecting the papers for Volume lour guide was to have authoritative works with a large variety of coverage of both theory and practice.
Written by a team of international experts, Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems presents a unique point of view on the mathematical theory of extremes and on its applications in the natural and social sciences. Featuring an interdisciplinary approach to new concepts in pure and applied mathematical research, the book skillfully combines the areas of statistical mechanics, probability theory, measure theory, dynamical systems, statistical inference, geophysics, and software application. Emphasizing the statistical mechanical point of view, the book introduces robust theoretical embedding for the application of extreme value theory in dynamical systems. Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems also features: • A careful examination of how a dynamical system can serve as a generator of stochastic processes • Discussions on the applications of statistical inference in the theoretical and heuristic use of extremes • Several examples of analysis of extremes in a physical and geophysical context • A final summary of the main results presented along with a guide to future research projects • An appendix with software in Matlab® programming language to help readers to develop further understanding of the presented concepts Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems is ideal for academics and practitioners in pure and applied mathematics, probability theory, statistics, chaos, theoretical and applied dynamical systems, statistical mechanics, geophysical fluid dynamics, geosciences and complexity science. VALERIO LUCARINI, PhD, is Professor of Theoretical Meteorology at the University of Hamburg, Germany and Professor of Statistical Mechanics at the University of Reading, UK. DAVIDE FARANDA, PhD, is Researcher at the Laboratoire des science du climat et de l’environnement, IPSL, CEA Saclay, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. ANA CRISTINA GOMES MONTEIRO MOREIRA DE FREITAS, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Economics at the University of Porto, Portugal. JORGE MIGUEL MILHAZES DE FREITAS, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics of the Faculty of Sciences at the University of Porto, Portugal. MARK HOLLAND, PhD, is Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics in the College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences at the University of Exeter, UK. TOBIAS KUNA, PhD, is Associate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Reading, UK. MATTHEW NICOL, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics at the University of Houston, USA. MIKE TODD, PhD, is Lecturer in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. SANDRO VAIENTI, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics at the University of Toulon and Researcher at the Centre de Physique Théorique, France.
A guide to the growing importance of extreme value risk theory, methods, and applications in the financial sector Presenting a uniquely accessible guide, Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications features a combination of the theory, methods, and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) in finance and a practical understanding of market behavior including both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. Beginning with a fascinating history of EVTs and financial modeling, the handbook introduces the historical implications that resulted in the applications and then clearly examines the fundamental results of EVT in finance. After dealing with these theoretical results, the handbook focuses on the EVT methods critical for data analysis. Finally, the handbook features the practical applications and techniques and how these can be implemented in financial markets. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications includes: Over 40 contributions from international experts in the areas of finance, statistics, economics, business, insurance, and risk management Topical discussions on univariate and multivariate case extremes as well as regulation in financial markets Extensive references in order to provide readers with resources for further study Discussions on using R packages to compute the value of risk and related quantities The book is a valuable reference for practitioners in financial markets such as financial institutions, investment funds, and corporate treasuries, financial engineers, quantitative analysts, regulators, risk managers, large-scale consultancy groups, and insurers. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications is also a useful textbook for postgraduate courses on the methodology of EVTs in finance.
Written by a team of international experts, Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems presents a unique point of view on the mathematical theory of extremes and on its applications in the natural and social sciences. Featuring an interdisciplinary approach to new concepts in pure and applied mathematical research, the book skillfully combines the areas of statistical mechanics, probability theory, measure theory, dynamical systems, statistical inference, geophysics, and software application. Emphasizing the statistical mechanical point of view, the book introduces robust theoretical embedding for the application of extreme value theory in dynamical systems. Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems also features: • A careful examination of how a dynamical system can serve as a generator of stochastic processes • Discussions on the applications of statistical inference in the theoretical and heuristic use of extremes • Several examples of analysis of extremes in a physical and geophysical context • A final summary of the main results presented along with a guide to future research projects • An appendix with software in Matlab® programming language to help readers to develop further understanding of the presented concepts Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems is ideal for academics and practitioners in pure and applied mathematics, probability theory, statistics, chaos, theoretical and applied dynamical systems, statistical mechanics, geophysical fluid dynamics, geosciences and complexity science. VALERIO LUCARINI, PhD, is Professor of Theoretical Meteorology at the University of Hamburg, Germany and Professor of Statistical Mechanics at the University of Reading, UK. DAVIDE FARANDA, PhD, is Researcher at the Laboratoire des science du climat et de l’environnement, IPSL, CEA Saclay, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. ANA CRISTINA GOMES MONTEIRO MOREIRA DE FREITAS, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Economics at the University of Porto, Portugal. JORGE MIGUEL MILHAZES DE FREITAS, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics of the Faculty of Sciences at the University of Porto, Portugal. MARK HOLLAND, PhD, is Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics in the College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences at the University of Exeter, UK. TOBIAS KUNA, PhD, is Associate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Reading, UK. MATTHEW NICOL, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics at the University of Houston, USA. MIKE TODD, PhD, is Lecturer in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. SANDRO VAIENTI, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics at the University of Toulon and Researcher at the Centre de Physique Théorique, France.
In the 18th century, statisticians sometimes worked as consultants to gamblers. In order to answer questions like "If a fair coin is flipped 100 times, what is the probability of getting 60 or more heads?", Abraham de Moivre discovered the so-called "normal curve". Independently, Pierre-Simon Laplace derived the central limit theorem, where the normal distribution acts as the limit for the distribution of the sample mean. Nowadays, statisticians sometimes work as consultants for economists, to whom the normal distribution is far from a satisfactory model. For example, one may need to model large-impact financial events in order to to answer questions like "What is the probability of getting into a crisis period similar to the credit squeeze in 2007 in the coming 10 years?". At first glance, estimating the chances of events that rarely happen or even have never happened before sounds like a "mission impossible". The development of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) shows that it is in fact possible to achieve this goal. Different from the central limit theorem, Extreme Value Theory starts from the limit distribution of the sample maximum. Initiated by M. Frechet, R. Fisher and R. von Mises, the limit theory completed by B. Gnedenko, gave the fundamental assumption in EVT, the "extreme value condition". Statistically, the extreme value condition provides a semi-parametric model for the tails of distribution functions. Therefore it can be applied to evaluate the rare events. On the other hand, since the assumption is rather general and natural, the semi-parametric model can have extensive applications in numerous felds.
This book presents a collection of papers on recent advances in problems concerning dynamics, optimal control and optimization. In many chapters, computational techniques play a central role. Set-oriented techniques feature prominently throughout the book, yielding state-of-the-art algorithms for computing general invariant sets, constructing globally optimal controllers and solving multi-objective optimization problems.