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A stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy is used to analyze the origin of international business cycles using data for Germany, Japan and the United States. The findings indicate that after 1973, common shocks play a major role in accounting for similarities in output fluctuations. However, trade interdependencies with the United States may have also played a very important role; more than 20 percent of output fluctuations of the German and Japanese economies could have been imported from the United States.

Panama

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Published: 2015-08-19

Total Pages: 64


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This Selected Issues paper assesses risks in the Panamanian banking sector. The analysis suggests that Panama’s banking system seems able to withstand reasonably severe shocks, while contagion risks stem primarily from foreign banks. Ample starting capital buffers and bank profitability prevent translation of higher loan defaults under stress into materially impair capital adequacy ratios. Reverse engineering the exercise to gauge what it would take to erase one-fourth of system capital reveals that the shock would need to be not only unprecedented, but also extremely large. In terms of contagion, while failures of both domestic and foreign banks would result in significant capital losses for Panamanian banks, the risk of contagion propagation is much higher in the case of the latter.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of globalization inflation and relative prices over the last decade in the United Kingdom. The IMF’s Global Economy Model is used to estimate the relative importance of the various factors argued to have influenced the evolution of inflation and relative prices over this period. The key result is the significantly different impact of the shock on relative prices in the United Kingdom compared with the United States and the Euro area. The paper also explores the likely evolution of the economy after a rise in immigration.
A new edition of the leading text in monetary economics, a comprehensive treatment revised and enhanced with new material reflecting recent advances in the field. This text presents a comprehensive treatment of the most important topics in monetary economics, focusing on the primary models monetary economists have employed to address topics in theory and policy. It covers the basic theoretical approaches, shows how to do simulation work with the models, and discusses the full range of frictions that economists have studied to understand the impacts of monetary policy. Among the topics presented are money-in-the-utility function, cash-in-advance, and search models of money; informational, portfolio, and nominal rigidities; credit frictions; the open economy; and issues of monetary policy, including discretion and commitment, policy analysis in new Keynesian models, and monetary operating procedures. The use of models based on dynamic optimization and nominal rigidities in consistent general equilibrium frameworks, relatively new when introduced to students in the first edition of this popular text, has since become the method of choice of monetary policy analysis. This third edition reflects the latest advances in the field, incorporating new or expanded material on such topics as monetary search equilibria, sticky information, adaptive learning, state-contingent pricing models, and channel systems for implementing monetary policy. Much of the material on policy analysis has been reorganized to reflect the dominance of the new Keynesian approach. Monetary Theory and Policy continues to be the only comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of monetary economics, not only the leading text in the field but also the standard reference for academics and central bank researchers.
Combining classic international economics with straight-from-the- headlines immediacy, Feenstra and Taylor’s text seamlessly integrates the subject’s established core content with topic areas and ideas that have emerged from recent empirical studies. A MODERN APPROACH FOR THE 21ST CENTURY International economics texts traditionally place greater emphasis on theory and a strong focus on the advanced countries. Feenstra/Taylor links theory to empirical evidence throughout the book, and incorporates coverage of emerging markets and developing economies (India, China, SE Asia) to reflect the evolving realities of the global economy. The new edition has been extensively revised and updated, especially in light of the ongoing world financial crisis. NOTE: Feenstra/Taylor, International Economics, Second Edition, is available in four versions: International Economics, 2e: 1-4292-3118-1 International Trade, 2e: 1-4292-4104-7 International Macroeconomics, 2e: 1-4292-4103-9 Essentials of International Economics, 2e: 1-4292-7710-5
This paper describes the functioning of labor markets and to eliminate other structural obstacles to noninflationary growth. The decline in the price level in the home country will involve a rise in the real money supply and, if output is sluggish, this will result in an excess supply of money. This, in turn, will lead to a drop in the domestic interest rate and, given foreign interest rates, to a temporary depreciation of the exchange rate. Structural measures could also affect investment and the current account by raising the rate of return on capital in the home country. If capital is internationally mobile, a higher rate of return on capital would result in a rise in investment and a temporary deterioration in the home country’s current account, which will be financed by an inflow of foreign capital. The quantitative impact of financial market deregulation on the economy is rather uncertain.

Barbados

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Published: 2014-02-12

Total Pages: 64


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This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment Report on Barbados. Barbados has a relatively well-developed financial system, including a large offshore sector. The onshore system is dominated by large, regionally active banks. Banking services to the population are also provided by the credit union sector. With a deteriorating fiscal situation and weak growth prospects, Barbados faces considerable macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Although the financial system does not appear to be a source of immediate risk, its position appears to be deteriorating, with implications for systemic stability.
Description and extensions of the capital income effective tax rate literature / M.M. Ruiz, F. Gérard, M. ; p. 11- 41.
Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate comovement is to impose the null hypothesis that central banks respond only to the outlook for domestic inflation and output. We show that common approaches used to estimate interest rate spillovers tend to understate the degree of monetary autonomy enjoyed by small open economies with flexible exchange rates. We propose an empirical strategy that partials out those spillovers that are associated with impaired monetary autonomy. Using this approach, we revisit the predictions of the trilemma and find more compelling evidence that flexible exchange rates deliver monetary autonomy than prior work has suggested.
This insightful and timely volume provides a succinct, expert-led introduction to the latest developments in advanced econometric methodologies in the context of tourism demand modelling and forecasting. Written by a plethora of worldwide experts on this topic, this book offers a comprehensive approach to tourism econometrics. Accurate demand forecasts are crucial to decision-making in the tourism industry and this book provides real-life tourism applications and the corresponding R code alongside theoretical foundations, in order to enhance understanding and practice amongst its readers. The methodologies introduced include general to specific modelling, cointegration, vector autoregression, time-varying parameter modelling, spatiotemporal econometric models, mixed-frequency forecasting, hybrid forecasting models, forecasting combination techniques, density forecasting, judgemental forecasting, scenario forecasting under crisis, and web-based tourism forecasting. Embellished with insightful figures and tables throughout, this book is an invaluable resource for those using advanced econometric methodologies in their studies and research, including both undergraduate and postgraduate students, researchers, and practitioners.