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This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the effects of temporary business tax cuts. First, the analysis extends the Ricardian equivalence result to an environment with production and establishes that a temporary tax cut financed by a future tax-increase has no real effect if the tax is lump-sum and capital markets are perfect. Second, it shows that in the presence of financing frictions which raise the cost of investment, the policy temporarily relaxes the financing constraint thereby reducing the marginal cost of investment. This direct effect implies positive marginal propensities to invest out of tax cuts. Third, when the tax is distortionary, the expectation of high future tax rates reduces the expected marginal return on investment mitigating the direct stimulative effects.
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the effects of temporary business tax cuts. First, the analysis extends the Ricardian equivalence result to an environment with production and establishes that a temporary tax cut financed by a future tax-increase has no real effect if the tax is lump-sum and capital markets are perfect. Second, it shows that in the presence of financing frictions which raise the cost of investment, the policy temporarily relaxes the financing constraint thereby reducing the marginal cost of investment. This direct effect implies positive marginal propensities to invest out of tax cuts. Third, when the tax is distortionary, the expectation of high future tax rates reduces the expected marginal return on investment mitigating the direct stimulative effects.
Macroeconomic studies of tax policy in dynamic general equilibrium usually assume that reforms hit the economy unexpectedly and last forever. Here, we explore how previous results change when we allow policy changes to be pre-announced and of finite duration and when these facts are anticipated by households and firms. Quantitatively we demonstrate a headstart advantage from pre-announcement that is never caught up by a surprising reform. The welfare gain from announcement of a corporate tax cut, for example, is estimated to be around 10 percent of the total gain from the reform. We show that adjustment dynamics of important variables like firm value, dividend payout, and investment differs qualitatively depending on whether the reform comes expected or not. We are also able to demonstrate a genuine welfare gain from temporary tax cuts. Impulse responses generated by our numerical method can be retraced by phase diagram analysis which facilitates explanation and interpretation of the produced results.
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the effects of temporary business tax cuts. First, the analysis extends the Ricardian equivalence result to an environment with production and establishes that a temporary tax cut financed by a future tax-increase has no real effect if the tax is lump-sum and capital markets are perfect. Second, it shows that in the presence of financing frictions which raise the cost of investment, the policy temporarily relaxes the financing constraint thereby reducing the marginal cost of investment. This direct effect implies positive marginal propensities to invest out of tax cuts. Third, when the tax is distortionary, the expectation of high future tax rates reduces the expected marginal return on investment mitigating the direct stimulative effects.
This paper uses an industry equilibrium model where some firms are financially constrained to quantify the effects of a transitory corporate tax cut funded by a future tax increase on the U.S. economy. It finds that by increasing current cash-flows tax cuts alleviate financing frictions, hereby stimulating current investment. Per dollar of tax stimulus, aggregate investment increases by 26 cents on impact, and aggregate output by 3.5 cents. The average effect masks heterogeneity: multipliers are close to 1 for constrained firms, especially new entrants, and negative for larger and unconstrained firms. The output effects extend well past the period the policy is reversed, leading to a cumulative multiplier of 7.2 cents. Multipliers are significantly larger when controlling for the investment crowding-out effect among unconstrained firms.
How do policy communications on future f iscal targets af fect market expectations and beliefs about the future conduct of f iscal policy? In this paper, we develop indicators of f iscal credibility that quantify the degree to which policy announcements anchor expectations, based on the deviation of private expectations f rom official targets, for 41 countries. We find that policy announcements partly re-anchor expectations and that f iscal rules and strong fiscal institutions, as well as a good policy track record, contribute to magnifying this effect, thereby improving fiscal credibility. Conversely, empirical analysis suggests that markets reward credibility with more favorable sovereign financing conditions.
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of corporate income, cash-flow and destination based cash-flow taxes into the model. The analysis presented considers the transmission mechanism of these taxes and details how financial frictions interact with each of the taxes.
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
A central proposition regarding effects of different mechanisms of fi-nancing public expenditures is that, under specific circumstances, it makes no difference to the level of aggregate demand if the government finances its outlays by debt or taxation. This so-called Ricardian equivalence states that, for a given expenditure path, substitution of debt for taxes does not affect private sector wealth and consumption. This paper provides a model illustrating the implications of Ricardian equivalence, surveys the litera-ture, considers effects of relaxing the basic assumptions, provides a frame-work to study implications of various extensions, and critically reviews recent empirical work on Ricardian equivalence.