Download Free Do Credit Market Shocks Affect The Real Economy Quasi Experimental Evidence From The Great Recession And Normal Economic Times Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Do Credit Market Shocks Affect The Real Economy Quasi Experimental Evidence From The Great Recession And Normal Economic Times and write the review.

We estimate the effect of the sharp reduction in credit supply following the 2008 financial crisis on the real economy. The identification strategy relies on the substantial heterogeneity in the degree to which banks cut lending over this period. Specifically, we predict changes in county-level small business lending over 2007-2009 by estimating the national change in each bank's lending that is attributable to supply factors (e.g., due to differences in the crisis' effect on their balance sheets) and, subsequently, allocating this quantity to counties based on the banks' pre-crisis market shares. We find that in 2008, 2009, and 2010, this measure is highly predictive of total county-level small business loan originations indicating that, at least in the near term, a firm cannot easily find a new lender if its bank limits access to credit. Additionally, we find that areas with more exposure to banks that cut small business lending during this period experience depressed employment and business formation. Upper bound estimates suggest that the 2007-2009 decline in small business lending accounted for up to 20% of the decline in employment in firms with less than 20 employees, 16% of the total employment loss, and 30% of the decline in inflation adjusted aggregate wages during this period. Finally, we note that the relationship between lending supply and economic activity is not evident in the 1997-2007 period, underscoring the unique circumstances during the Great Recession.
Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997-2011, this paper fails to find evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the small business lending channel is an important determinant of small business or overall economic activity. The shift-share style research design predicts county-level lending shocks using variation in pre-existing bank market shares and estimated bank supply-shifts. The results indicate that counties with negative predicted supply shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations throughout the entire period, indicating that it is costly for these businesses to find new lenders. However, we find that the predicted lending shocks only led to economically small declines in both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession, and did not affect employment during the 1997-2007 period.
This paper examines the importance of credit market shocks in driving global business cycles over the period 1988:1-2009:4. We first estimate common components in various macroeconomic and financial variables of the G-7 countries. We then evaluate the role played by credit market shocks using a series of VAR models. Our findings suggest that these shocks have been influential in driving global activity during the latest global recession. Credit shocks originating in the United States also have a significant impact on the evolution of world growth during global recessions.
We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP.
Private Equity and Entrepreneurial Finance, volume 1 of the new series, Handbook of the Economics of Corporate Finance, provides comprehensive and accessible updates of central theoretical and empirical issues in corporate finance. The demand for these updates reflects the rapid evolution of corporate finance research, which has become a dominant field in financial economics. The surveys are written by leading empirical researchers that remain active in their respective areas of interest. The dense roadmaps are intended to make the economics of corporate finance and governance accessible not only to doctoral students but also researchers not intimately familiar with this important field. Provides the authority and expertise of leading contributors from an international board of authors Presents the latest release in the Handbook of the Economics of Corporate Finance series Updated release includes the latest information on Private Equity and Entrepreneurial Finance
We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP.
Rather than taking on more risk, US insurers hit hard by the crisis pulled back from risk taking, relative to insurers not hit as hard by the crisis. Capital requirements alone do not explain this risk reduction: insurers hit hard reduced risk within assets with identical regulatory treatment. State level US insurance regulation makes it unlikely this risk reduction was driven by moral suasion. Other financial institutions also reduce risk after large shocks: the same approach applied to banks yields similar results. My results suggest that, at least in some circumstances, franchise value can dominate, making gambling for resurrection too risky.
During the 1990s, Emerging Europe and Central Asia (ECA) opted for a model of rapid financial development focused on bank credit expansion often funded by foreign capital. This model helped boost the financial inclusion of firms and households, but was also accompanied by lower financial efficiency and increased vulnerability to banking crises. The need for financial sector reforms has become more urgent as stagnating income growth, particularly of middle- to lower-income earners, is leading to increased dissatisfaction with the status quo of low productivity growth and limited access to opportunities. This demand for change can be the impetus for rebalancing financial policies to support higher and more inclusive growth. A healthy and balanced financial sector is needed to support structural adjustment in the oil dependent economies of the eastern side ECA and greater innovation in the countries of the western part of ECA. This report argues that financial development must reach beyond increasing access to credit. ECA countries should strive to build balanced financial systems integrating both bank and non-bank markets, enabling prudent financial inclusion. Most importantly, ECA falls significantly behind other world regions in the use of saving products. Striking the right balance across all dimensions of financial development (stability, efficiency, inclusion, and overall depth) is crucial for achieving and sustaining inclusive growth.
A framework for macroprudential regulation that defines systemic risk and macroprudential policy, describes macroprudential tools, and surveys the effectiveness of existing macroprudential regulation. The recent financial crisis has shattered all standard approaches to banking regulation. Regulators now recognize that banking regulation cannot be simply based on individual financial institutions' risks. Instead, systemic risk and macroprudential regulation have come to the forefront of the new regulatory paradigm. Yet our knowledge of these two core aspects of regulation is still limited and fragmented. This book offers a framework for understanding the reasons for the regulatory shift from a microprudential to a macroprudential approach to financial regulation. It defines systemic risk and macroprudential policy, cutting through the generalized confusion as to their meaning; contrasts macroprudential to microprudential approaches; discusses the interaction of macroprudential policy with macroeconomic policy (monetary policy in particular); and describes macroprudential tools and experiences with macroprudential regulation around the world. The book also considers the remaining challenges for establishing effective macroprudential policy and broader issues in regulatory reform. These include the optimal size and structure of the financial system, the multiplicity of regulatory bodies in the United States, the supervision of cross-border financial institutions, and the need for international cooperation on macroprudential policies.