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We investigate how private information in stock prices impacts quarterly dividend changes. We find that the positive relationship between past returns and current dividend changes strengthens when returns convey more private information. This finding is robust to the use of several price informativeness measures and the inclusion of managerial private information and stock overvaluation measures. Managers seem to learn new information from stock prices that they use when deciding on their dividend policy. This study highlights private information in stock prices as an important determinant of dividend policy and contributes to the literature on the real effects of financial markets.
Dividend Policy provides a comprehensive study of dividend policy. It explores the puzzle presented by dividends: irrational and subject to fashion, yet popular and desirable, they remain a priority among managers, even while perceived as largely symbolic. After exploring the history of dividend payments, from the emergence of the modern corporation to current perspectives, it traces the evolution of academic models on dividend policy. Here the authors review models of symmetric and asymmetric information before analyzing academia's accomplishments in solving the dividend puzzle. Related subjects, such as valuation and wealth distribution, round out the authors' presentation about new ways to think about one of the most intriguing subjects in financial economics. The book is recommended for professors and students in departments of finance and business, corporate finance staff, and financial regulators. The only comprehensive study of dividend policy Covers the historical evolution of dividends and academic research on dividend policy Presents new ways of thinking about dividends and dividend policy
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This study complements existing research on the information content of dividends by focusing on the use of dividend expectations. We derive a measure of unexpected dividend changes, called dividend surprises, based on Value Line forecasts. Our results highlight a potentially serious sample misclassification arising from the extensively used naive dividend change method. Classifications of unexpected changes in dividends using dividend surprises result in stock price reactions and earnings changes that are consistent with the implications of dividend signaling models. Also, the approach followed in this paper permits the analysis of a significantly quot;forgottenquot; sample in previous event studies: Firms announcing no dividend changes in which investors (analysts) are expecting a change. We find that no change in dividends often reflects a negative dividend surprise and is indeed associated with negative stock price reaction and negative earnings changes. We provide evidence that the failure to find a relationship between dividend changes and future earning changes may be due to measurement error arising from misclassification of dividend changes. One implication of this study for future research is that empirical tests of dividend signaling models should incorporate dividend forecasts.
In this paper, we examine changes in the behavior of ex-dividend stock prices when the exchanges changed from pricing stocks in discrete intervals to decimal pricing. Based on prior models of ex-dividend behavior and price discreteness of Dubofsky and of Bali and Hite, we anticipate that the move to trading in decimals would decrease the variance of returns on all exchanges and increase the level of ex-dividend-day returns on the NYSE while reducing them on the Amex and Nasdaq.Our sample of ex-dividend-day returns covers periods slightly longer than one year before and after decimalization. For the overall sample and for each of the individual exchanges (Amex, Nasdaq and NYSE), the variances of ex-dividend returns experience a significant decrease after decimalization while the mean returns increase by a positive and significant amount. To account for the increase in ex-day returns on the Amex and Nasdaq, we develop an alternative model to explain the effect of discreteness on ex-day returns. Tests of the three models (Dubofsky's, Bali and Hite's, and ours) indicate that prior to decimalization, as expected, Dubofsky's model is better for explaining NYSE ex-day returns and ours fits the Nasdaq better. Bali and Hite's model, however, is unable to explain any of the pre-decimalization ex-day returns, including those of the Nasdaq where the Bali-Hite model might provide a reasonable description of ex-day market behavior. After decimalization, ex-dividend-day returns do not appear to follow either the scenario described by Dubofsky or by us. The most likely cause of this is that traders in the market are placing ex-dividend-day orders with limits somewhere between prices indicated by Dubofsky and by us.We also provide evidence that ex-dividend returns attributable to factors other than discreteness and the dividend yield actually declined following decimalization. Since the most obvious factor is transactions costs, we interpret this to be evidence of a reduction in ex-day returns caused by a reduction in transactions costs. We also find that the dividend yield is a significant influence on ex-dividend-day returns.