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In contrast to corporate defaults, regulators typically take a number of statutory actions to avoid the large fiscal costs associated with bank defaults. The distance-to-default, a widely used market-based measure of corporate default risk, ignores such regulatory actions. To overcome this limitation, this paper introduces the concept of distance-to-capital that accounts for pre-default regulatory actions such as those in a prompt-corrective-actions framework. We show that both risk measures can be analyzed using the same theoretical framework but differ depending on the level of capital adequacy thresholds and asset volatility. We also use the framework to illustrate pre-default regulatory actions in Japan in 2001-03.
This book approaches macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of three tasks. The focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication into analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment. Generally, this book explores approaches for representing complex data concerning financial entities on low-dimensional displays. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. Accordingly, this book creates a Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), and lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. Beyond external risk communication, the aim of the visual means is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence.
Credit risk is the risk resulting from the uncertainty that a borrower or a group of borrowers may be unwilling or unable to meet their contractual obligations as per the agreed terms. It is the largest element of risk faced by most banks and financial institutions. Potential losses due to high credit risk can threaten a bank's solvency. After the global financial crisis of 2008, the importance of adopting prudent risk management practices has increased manifold. This book attempts to demystify various standard mathematical and statistical techniques that can be applied to measuring and managing portfolio credit risk in the emerging market in India. It also provides deep insights into various nuances of credit risk management practices derived from the best practices adopted globally, with case studies and data from Indian banks.
Contains original papers that examine various issues concerning the role, the structure and functioning of credit, currency and derivatives instruments and markets as they relate to financial crises. This title stresses the importance of the inter-linkages of these instruments and markets in promoting or hindering financial stability or crises.
Despite increased need for top-down stress tests of financial institutions, performing them is challenging owing to the absence of granular information on banks’ trading and loan portfolios. To deal with these data shortcomings, this paper presents a market-based structural top-down stress testing methodology that relies in market-based measures of a bank's probability of default and structural models of default risk to infer the capital losses they could experience in stress scenarios. As an illustration, the methodology is applied to a set of banks in an advanced emerging market economy.
Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice analyses various policies, theories and practices adopted by central banks, as well as the institutional arrangements underlying the principles of good governance in policy-making. It is the first book to comprehensively discuss the latest theories and practices of central bank policy.
Pricing of export credit is a challenge in the globalised world trade. Annual premia represent billions of euros or dollars and may determine competition. This book develops a rigorous new framework for pricing export credit products, e.g. buyer and supplier credit insurance and performance and working capital guarantees , based on well-known financial and actuarial theories. It introduces the products, the theories and the different data sources in order to apply the mathematical and financial ideas, e.g. discounting, risk-neutral valuation and Merton type defaults. It shows the differences of historical experience and implicit market pricing assumptions. The well-known OECD Arrangement is used as a benchmark for some part of the framework. Short code snippets in R are given in order to re-perform the results and have a basis to try own ideas. Many unprecedented exhibits give new insights into the subject matter. The book is targeted at practitioners and actuaries in the field with a good quantitative background.
Sweden was among the first to falter in the great recession. The downturn was mitigated by aggressive stabilization policies, led by a sharp relaxation of monetary policy, a slew of emergency financial sector support measures, and actions raising bank capital. The policy actions taken were effective because they occurred against the background of Sweden’s credible inflation targeting, freely floating exchange rate, and budgetary frameworks. The intention to keep policies supportive are appropriate. Fiscal policy anchors this effort, and the monetary stance is highly accommodative.
Belgium’s impressive past fiscal consolidation is an example for other countries that need to bring down their public debt and also provides insights on how best to address its own current fiscal challenges. Belgium has a unique history of a long and successful large fiscal consolidation. Belgium lived through various episodes of fiscal adjustment and each one of these contains important lessons for future consolidation. After Belgium’s public debt-to-GDP reached a peak of about 135 percent in 1993, it was steadily reduced to about 84 percent by 2007.