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This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a “bang-bang” control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post 1979 period.
This book presents perspectives by eminent economists, social scientists and policy makers, exploring in depth the post-reform developments in India, including issues pertaining to growth and equity, issues which have been at the core of life-time work of Prof. R. Radhakrishna. The book brings out how some public policy instruments created to promote growth have turned out to be regressive, promoting inequalities and creating a highly asymmetric federalism in India. It examines the efficacy of fiscal and monetary reforms and also emphasises the need for strengthening the institutions of governance, particularly judiciary and police, in order to boost investors’ confidence. It presents exercises in econometric modelling for explaining factors in growth and vetting policies, and explores the issue of governance and institutions. The book provides insights into the working of an emerging economy and a large democracy which has to strive for public acceptability of the tensions of its negotiations between equity and growth. With its depth of academic excellence and breadth of topics covered, it is a ‘must read’ for researchers, policy makers, industry watchers, think tanks, and NGOs.
This paper shows that stabilizing volatility in credit growth often conflicts with price stability: unusual credit expansions often occur when inflation is low relative to goals, and credit slumps often appear when inflation is overshooting. We find that central banks with inflation targeting (IT) are responsive to credit conditions in both advanced economies and emerging-market economies (EMEs). However, EMEs are more sensitive to inflation conditions, responding to credit growth only when consistent with IT. Macroprudential measures are also deployed to address credit growth volatility when orthodox policy moves would be inconsistent with IT, complementing monetary policy.
This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
Over the past few decades serious reservations have been expressed about the explanatory power of sociological theory and research. In this important book, leading social theorist Peter Hedström outlines the foundations of an analytically oriented sociology that seeks to address this criticism. Building on his earlier influential contributions to contemporary debates, Professor Hedström argues for a systematic development of sociological theory so that it has the explanatory power and precision to inform sociological research and understanding. He discusses various mechanisms of action and interaction and shows how strong links can be forged between the micro and the macro, and between theory and empirical research. Combining approaches to theory and methodology and using extensive examples to illustrate how they might be applied, this clear, concise and original book will appeal to a broad range of social scientists.
An authorised reissue of the long out of print classic textbook, Advanced Calculus by the late Dr Lynn Loomis and Dr Shlomo Sternberg both of Harvard University has been a revered but hard to find textbook for the advanced calculus course for decades.This book is based on an honors course in advanced calculus that the authors gave in the 1960's. The foundational material, presented in the unstarred sections of Chapters 1 through 11, was normally covered, but different applications of this basic material were stressed from year to year, and the book therefore contains more material than was covered in any one year. It can accordingly be used (with omissions) as a text for a year's course in advanced calculus, or as a text for a three-semester introduction to analysis.The prerequisites are a good grounding in the calculus of one variable from a mathematically rigorous point of view, together with some acquaintance with linear algebra. The reader should be familiar with limit and continuity type arguments and have a certain amount of mathematical sophistication. As possible introductory texts, we mention Differential and Integral Calculus by R Courant, Calculus by T Apostol, Calculus by M Spivak, and Pure Mathematics by G Hardy. The reader should also have some experience with partial derivatives.In overall plan the book divides roughly into a first half which develops the calculus (principally the differential calculus) in the setting of normed vector spaces, and a second half which deals with the calculus of differentiable manifolds.
The classic book on systems thinking—with more than half a million copies sold worldwide! "This is a fabulous book... This book opened my mind and reshaped the way I think about investing."—Forbes "Thinking in Systems is required reading for anyone hoping to run a successful company, community, or country. Learning how to think in systems is now part of change-agent literacy. And this is the best book of its kind."—Hunter Lovins In the years following her role as the lead author of the international bestseller, Limits to Growth—the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet—Donella Meadows remained a pioneer of environmental and social analysis until her untimely death in 2001. Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global. Edited by the Sustainability Institute’s Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life. Some of the biggest problems facing the world—war, hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation—are essentially system failures. They cannot be solved by fixing one piece in isolation from the others, because even seemingly minor details have enormous power to undermine the best efforts of too-narrow thinking. While readers will learn the conceptual tools and methods of systems thinking, the heart of the book is grander than methodology. Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global dilemmas. She reminds readers to pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable, to stay humble, and to stay a learner. In a world growing ever more complicated, crowded, and interdependent, Thinking in Systems helps readers avoid confusion and helplessness, the first step toward finding proactive and effective solutions.
This valuable text provides a comprehensive introduction to VAR modelling and how it can be applied. In particular, the author focuses on the properties of the Cointegrated VAR model and its implications for macroeconomic inference when data are non-stationary. The text provides a number of insights into the links between statistical econometric modelling and economic theory and gives a thorough treatment of identification of the long-run and short-run structure as well as of the common stochastic trends and the impulse response functions, providing in each case illustrations of applicability. This book presents the main ingredients of the Copenhagen School of Time-Series Econometrics in a transparent and coherent framework. The distinguishing feature of this school is that econometric theory and applications have been developed in close cooperation. The guiding principle is that good econometric work should take econometrics, institutions, and economics seriously. The author uses a single data set throughout most of the book to guide the reader through the econometric theory while also revealing the full implications for the underlying economic model. To test ensure full understanding the book concludes with the introduction of two new data sets to combine readers understanding of econometric theory and economic models, with economic reality.
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 address exchange-rate models; implications of credit market frictions; cyclical budgetary policy and economic growth; the impacts of shocks to government spending on consumption, real wages, and employment; dynamic macroeconomic models; and the role of cyclical entry of new firms and products on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations and on the effects of monetary policy.