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Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to higher energy prices and disruptions in trade and supply chains, weighing on economic growth. Economic convergence had already slowed down before the pandemic, calling for accelerating structural reforms. Rising spending pressures related to defence, internal security, health and old age poverty need to be addressed by raising spending efficiency and tax revenue, while the tax burden should be shifted from labour towards other income, property, and environmental taxes. Continuing to improve the capacity of the public sector, fostering investment and innovation and addressing skilled labour shortages are key for raising potential growth. Low credit supply is a main factor for weak investment and should be tackled by fostering competition and deepening capital markets. High informality, which hinders access to finance and distorts the level playing field, should be addressed by reducing labour taxes for low-wage earners, improving tax enforcement and continuing to fight corruption. Strengthening the power of the Competition Council to enforce competitive neutrality of state-owned enterprises and challenge regulation that restricts competition would help to foster business dynamism and innovation. Addressing skilled labour shortages will require facilitating skilled migration and investing more in human capital. SPECIAL FEATURE: RAISING INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT GROWTH
The paper studies the employment effects of the widespread job retention support that was provided during the Covid-19 pandemic, using firm-level administrative data for Estonia that cover the whole population of firms in 2019-2020. The endogeneity of the support is addressed by creating a control group from firms that were as severely hit as those that received the support and by using matching techniques. It is found that there was no selection of firms into the support by productivity once the sample is restricted to firms that experienced similar adverse conditions. The support had a positive effect on employment, as about one job in five that was supported by the scheme was saved and the unemployment rate was 2-4 percentage points lower in 2020 with the support than it would have been without the support.
This policy brief provides an update on job retention policies in a sample of 20 countries representing the main world regions as well as the diverse types of job retention schemes, in particular short-time work, furlough and wage subsidy schemes as they have been implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We show the diversity of these policies as well as the available information about their (re-)design as the pandemic evolved up to the most recent period. The policy brief raises main issues regarding the implementation and adaptation of job retention policies and illustrated this with four case studies.
The spread of COVID-19, containment measures, and general uncertainty led to a sharp reduction in activity in the first half of 2020. Europe was hit particularly hard—the economic contraction in 2020 is estimated to have been among the largest in the world—with potentially severe repercussions on its nonfinancial corporations. A wave of corporate bankruptcies would generate mass unemployment, and a loss of productive capacity and firm-specific human capital. With many SMEs in Europe relying primarily on the banking sector for external finance, stress in the corporate sector could easily translate into pressures in the banking system (Aiyar et al., forthcoming).
We document the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian labor market focusing on employment, wages and hours worked using the nationally representative household surveys PNAD-Continua and PNAD COVID. Sectors most susceptible to the shock because they are more contact-intensive and less teleworkable, such as construction, domestic services and hospitality, suffered large job losses and reductions in hours. Given low income workers experienced the largest decline in earnings, extreme poverty and the Gini coefficient based on labor income increased by around 9.2 and 5 percentage points, respectively, due to the immediate shock. The government’s broad based, temporary Emergency Aid transfer program more than offset the labor income losses for the bottom four deciles, however, such that poverty relative to the pre-COVID baseline fell. At a cost of around 4 percent of GDP in 2020 such support is not fiscally sustainable beyond the short-term and ended in late 2020. The challenge will be to avoid a sharp increase in poverty and inequality if the labor market does not pick up sufficiently fast in 2021.
A series of reviews of mental health and work policies in selected OECD countries revealed the challenge of mental health for social and labour market outcomes and policies and the high costs of the continued stigmatisation of mental health for individuals, employers and societies. To better respond to this challenge, in early 2016 health and employment ministers from the 38 OECD countries endorsed a Recommendation of the Council on Integrated Mental Health, Skills, and Work Policy.
Women, Business and the Law 2021 is the seventh in a series of annual studies measuring the laws and regulations that affect women’s economic opportunity in 190 economies. The project presents eight indicators structured around women’s interactions with the law as they move through their lives and careers: Mobility, Workplace, Pay, Marriage, Parenthood, Entrepreneurship, Assets, and Pension. This year’s report updates all indicators as of October 1, 2020 and builds evidence of the links between legal gender equality and women’s economic inclusion. By examining the economic decisions women make throughout their working lives, as well as the pace of reform over the past 50 years, Women, Business and the Law 2021 makes an important contribution to research and policy discussions about the state of women’s economic empowerment. Prepared during a global pandemic that threatens progress toward gender equality, this edition also includes important findings on government responses to COVID-19 and pilot research related to childcare and women’s access to justice.