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Differences in the choices of trade and macro policies, both by developing countries and by developed countries towards developing countries, have been critical in determining the overall performance of developing countries. All too often, the performance of developing countries has not been assessed using appropriately conducted studies. The papers in this book are chosen to bridge this gap and show how a quantitative approach to policy evaluation can help resolve controversies and explain the choice of observed policies.The book brings together carefully selected papers that assess the impacts of various trade and macro policies, by quantifying the policies of developing countries at the macro level (exchange rate, investment, savings) and at the sector level (trade and industrial policies), in addition to policies of developed countries towards developing countries (trade preferences, quotas, VERs and migration policies). Facets of the political economy of trade, migration, and climate policies are explored (such as the enlargement of the EU, the rise of regionalism and how it can ease the pains of adjustment to trade liberalization, openness and inequality). Growing tensions between trade and the environment are also investigated. In short, this book covers a wide area of events ranging from external and internal shocks to external and internal policies, showing how the consequences of these events can be brought to rigorous quantitative analysis.
For dozens of developing countries, the financial upheavals of the 1980s have set back economic development by a decade or more. Poverty in those countries have intensified as they struggle under the burden of an enormous external debt. In 1988, more than six years after the onset of the crisis, almost all the debtor countries were still unable to borrow in the international capital markets on normal terms. Moreover, the world financial system has been disrupted by the prospect of widespread defaults on those debts. Because of the urgency of the present crisis, and because similar crises have recurred intermittently for at least 175 years, it is important to understand the fundamental features of the international macroeconomy and global financial markets that have contributed to this repeated instability. Developing Country Debt and the World Economy contains nontechnical versions of papers prepared under the auspices of the project on developing country debt, sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The project focuses on the middle-income developing countries, particularly those in Latin America and East Asia, although many lessons of the study should apply as well to other, poorer debtor countries. The contributors analyze the crisis from two perspectives, that of the international financial system as a whole and that of individual debtor countries. Studies of eight countries—Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, South Korea, and Turkey—explore the question of why some countries succumbed to serious financial crises while other did not. Each study was prepared by a team of two authors—a U.S.-based research and an economist from the country under study. An additional eight papers approach the problem of developing country debt from a global or "systemic" perspective. The topics they cover include the history of international sovereign lending and previous debt crises, the political factors that contribute to poor economic policies in many debtor nations, the role of commercial banks and the International Monetary Fund during the current crisis, the links between debt in developing countries and economic policies in the industrialized nations, and possible new approaches to the global management of the crisis.
This book is about the evolution of developing countries in the world economy situated in its wider historical context, spanning centuries, but with a focus on the period since the mid-twentieth century. It traces the rise and 'catch up' of the developing world and the shift in the balance of power in the world economy.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
In Dance of the Trillions, David Lubin tells the story of what makes money flow from high-income countries to lower-income ones; what makes it flow out again; and how developing countries have sought protection against the volatility of international capital flows. The book traces an arc from the 1970s, when developing countries first gained access to international financial markets, to the present day. Underlying this story is a discussion of how the relationship between developing countries and global finance appears to be moving from one governed by the “Washington Consensus” to one more likely to be shaped by Beijing.
The new book that's sparked discussion both in Washington and European financial capitals Policy makers in the developing world are grappling with new dilemmas created by openness to trade and capital flows. What role, if any, remains for the state in promoting industrialization? Does openness worsen inequality, and if so, what can be done about it? What is the best way to handle turbulence from the world economy, especially the fickleness of international capital flows? In The New Global Economy and Developing Countries Dani Rodrik argues that successful integration into the world economy requires a complementary set of policies and institutions at home. Policy makers must reinforce their external strategy of liberalization with an internal strategy that gives the state substantial responsibility in building physical and human capital and mediating social conflicts.
Manufacturing-led development has provided the traditional model for creating jobs and prosperity. But in the past three decades the conventional pattern of structural transformation has changed, with the services sector growing faster than the manufacturing sector. This raises critical questions about the ability of developing economies to close productivity gaps with advanced economies and to create good jobs for more people. At Your Service? The Promise of Services-Led Development (www.worldbank.org/services-led-development) assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that can maximize the model’s potential.
This is the fourth in the World Bank's annual series assessing key development issues. Adjustment, global and national, to promote sustainable growth in the changing world economy is the main theme of this report. Recession and inflation in the industrial countries, together with the rise in oil prices, have been the main forces at work in the world economy in the 1970s. The report examines their effect on developing countries to see how adjustment has been managed and what lessons may be learned for the 1980s. Adjustment occurs through international trade and capital flows and through changes in national production and consumption patterns. The earlier chapters of the report present global and regional projections for the 1980s and consider international aspects of adjustment in trade, energy and finance. It then turns to adjustment problems of different groups of developing countries and a consideration of the prospects for human development. The report also includes the 1981 World Development Indicators, a set of 25 tables of economic and social indicators for 124 countries.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.