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Mathematical Demography, the study of population and its analysis through mathematical models, has received increased interest in the mathematical com munity in recent years. It was not until the twentieth century, however, that the study of population, predominantly human population, achieved its math ematical character. The subject of mathematical demography can be viewed from either a deterministic viewpoint or from a stochastic viewpoint. For the sake of brevity, stochastic models are not included in this work. It is, therefore, my intention to consider only established deterministic models in this discussion, starting with the life table as the earliest model, to a generalized matrix model which is developed in this treatise. These deterministic models provide sufficient de velopment and conclusions to formulate sound mathematical population analy sis and estimates of population projections. It should be noted that although the subject of mathematical demography focuses on human populations, the development and results may be applied to any population as long as the preconditions that make the model valid are maintained. Information concerning mathematical demography is at best fragmented.
Mathematical demography is the centerpiece of quantitative social science. The founding works of this field from Roman times to the late Twentieth Century are collected here, in a new edition of a classic work by David R. Smith and Nathan Keyfitz. Commentaries by Smith and Keyfitz have been brought up to date and extended by Kenneth Wachter and Hervé Le Bras, giving a synoptic picture of the leading achievements in formal population studies. Like the original collection, this new edition constitutes an indispensable source for students and scientists alike, and illustrates the deep roots and continuing vitality of mathematical demography.
What follows is a new edition of the second in a series of three books providing an account of the mathematical development of demography. The first, Introduction to the Mathematics of Population (Addison-Wesley, 1968), gave the mathematical background. The second, the original of the present volume, was concerned with demography itself. The third in the sequence, Mathematics Through Problems (with John Beekman; Springer Verlag, 1982), supplemented the first two with an ordered sequence of problems and answers. Readers interested in the mathematics may consult the earlier book, republished with revisions by Addison-Wesley in 1977 and still in print. There is no overlap in subject matter between Applied Mathematical Demography and the Introduction to the Mathematics of Population. Three new chapters have been added, dealing with matters that have come recently into the demographic limelight: multi-state calculations, family demogra phy, and heterogeneity. vii PREFACE This book is concerned with commonsense questions about, for instance, the effect of a lowered death rate on the proportion of old people or the effect of abortions on the birth rate. The answers that it reaches are not always commonsense, and we will meet instances in which intuition has to be adjusted to accord with what the mathematics shows to be the case.
This book gives a unified presentation of, and mathematical framework for, modeling population growth by couple formation, summarizing both past and present modeling results. It provides results on model analysis, gives an up-to-date review of mathematical demography, discusses numerical methods, and puts deterministic modeling of human populations into historical perspective.
As Eugene Wigner stressed, mathematics has proven unreasonably effective in the physical sciences and their technological applications. The role of mathematics in the biological, medical and social sciences has been much more modest but has recently grown thanks to the simulation capacity offered by modern computers. This book traces the history of population dynamics---a theoretical subject closely connected to genetics, ecology, epidemiology and demography---where mathematics has brought significant insights. It presents an overview of the genesis of several important themes: exponential growth, from Euler and Malthus to the Chinese one-child policy; the development of stochastic models, from Mendel's laws and the question of extinction of family names to percolation theory for the spread of epidemics, and chaotic populations, where determinism and randomness intertwine. The reader of this book will see, from a different perspective, the problems that scientists face when governments ask for reliable predictions to help control epidemics (AIDS, SARS, swine flu), manage renewable resources (fishing quotas, spread of genetically modified organisms) or anticipate demographic evolutions such as aging.
The lecture notes contained in this volume were presented at the AMS Short Course on Population Biology, held August 6-7, 1983, in Albany, New York in conjunction with the summer meeting of the American Mathematical Society. These notes will acquaint the reader with the mathematical ideas that pervade almost every level of thinking in population biology and provide an introduction to the many applications of mathematics in the field. Research mathematicians, college teachers of mathematics, and graduate students all should find this book of interest. Population biology is probably the oldest area in mathematical biology, but remains a constant source of new mathematical problems and the area of biology best integrated with mathematical theory. The need for mathematical approaches has never been greater, as evolutionary theory is challenged by new interpretations of the paleontological record and new discoveries at the molecular level, as world resources for feeding populations become limiting, as the problems of pollution increase, and as both animal and plant epidemiological problems receive closer scrutiny. A background of advanced calculus, introduction to ordinary and partial differential equations, and linear algebra will make the book accessible. All of the papers included have high research value. A list of the contents follows.
This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasizes the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modeling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behavior of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students and researchers in mathematical biology, epidemiology and demography who are interested in the systematic presentation of relevant models and mathematical methods.
Mathematics has always benefited from its involvement with developing sciences. Each successive interaction revitalises and enhances the field. Biomedical science is clearly the premier science of the foreseeable future. For the continuing health of their subject mathematicians must become involved with biology. With the example of how mathematics has benefited from and influenced physics, it is clear that if mathematicians do not become involved in the biosciences they will simply not be a part of what are likely to be the most important and exciting scientific discoveries of all time. Mathematical biology is a fast growing, well recognised, albeit not clearly defined, subject and is, to my mind, the most exciting modern application of mathematics. The increasing use of mathematics in biology is inevitable as biol ogy becomes more quantitative. The complexity of the biological sciences makes interdisciplinary involvement essential. For the mathematician, biology opens up new and exciting branches while for the biologist mathematical modelling offers another research tool commmensurate with a new powerful laboratory technique but only if used appropriately and its limitations recognised. However, the use of esoteric mathematics arrogantly applied to biological problems by mathemati cians who know little about the real biology, together with unsubstantiated claims as to how important such theories are, does little to promote the interdisciplinary involvement which is so essential. Mathematical biology research, to be useful and interesting, must be relevant biologically.