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October 1996 Governments that are not committed to alleviating poverty - or that are extremely committed to it - spend less from the central budget on infrastructure. Governments with only limited commitment to alleviating poverty adopt strategies to increase the productivity of the poor by investing in infrastructure. But as their commitment intensifies, their strategy shifts to improving human capital or strengthening the social safety net, and funding for social programs competes with funding for infrastructure. Randolph, Bogetic, and Heffley empirically study factors that influence public investment in transportation and communication infrastructure. Using pooled cross-national and time-series data for 1980-86 for 27 low- and middle-income economies, they assess the influence on public infrastructure spending of a government's objectives (especially its commitment to poverty alleviation), the nature of the domestic economy, and the flow (and composition) of external assistance. Their findings: * Per capita spending on infrastructure responds most strongly to changes in the level of development, the urbanization rate, and the labor force participation rate. * Spending is greater in countries with large foreign sectors and is positively influenced by sectoral imbalances between rural and urban areas (reflected in migration rates). Moreover, as the stock of infrastructure increases, so does per capita spending on it. * If total flows of foreign savings increase, there is a small positive response in per capita spending. The composition of foreign savings matters: when commercial bank flows represent proportionately more of such flows, infrastructure spending is greater. * With higher population densities, consolidated government spending declines. Central government spending increases initially, but decreases as population densities rise. * Central budget spending is positively associated with improved institutional development, whereas consolidated budget spending falls as institutional development improves (when levels of institutional development are low). * The size of the budget deficit appears not to influence central budget spending but is positively associated with consolidated budget spending. * Greater outward orientation is positively associated with increased consolidated budget spending but seems to bear no relationship to central budget spending on infrastructure. * Governments that are not committed to alleviating poverty, or that are extremely committed to it, spend less from the central budget on infrastructure. Governments with only limited commitment to alleviating poverty adopt strategies to increase the productivity of the poor by investing in infrastructure. But as their commitment intensifies, their strategy shifts to improving human capital or strengthening the social safety net, and funding for those social programs competes with funding for developing infrastructure. This paper - a product of the Country Operations Division, Europe and Central Asia, Country Department I - is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze public expenditure issues. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Enhancing Urban Productivity: Determinants of Optimal Expenditure on Infrastructure, Human Resources, and Public Consumption Goods (RPO 677-66).
World Development Report 1994 examines the link between infrastructure and development and explores ways in which developing countries can improve both the provision and the quality of infrastructure services. In recent decades, developing countries have made substantial investments in infrastructure, achieving dramatic gains for households and producers by expanding their access to services such as safe water, sanitation, electric power, telecommunications, and transport. Even more infrastructure investment and expansion are needed in order to extend the reach of services - especially to people living in rural areas and to the poor. But as this report shows, the quantity of investment cannot be the exclusive focus of policy. Improving the quality of infrastructure service also is vital. Both quantity and quality improvements are essential to modernize and diversify production, help countries compete internationally, and accommodate rapid urbanization. The report identifies the basic cause of poor past performance as inadequate institutional incentives for improving the provision of infrastructure. To promote more efficient and responsive service delivery, incentives need to be changed through commercial management, competition, and user involvement. Several trends are helping to improve the performance of infrastructure. First, innovation in technology and in the regulatory management of markets makes more diversity possible in the supply of services. Second, an evaluation of the role of government is leading to a shift from direct government provision of services to increasing private sector provision and recent experience in many countries with public-private partnerships is highlighting new ways to increase efficiency and expand services. Third, increased concern about social and environmental sustainability has heightened public interest in infrastructure design and performance.
The paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a large sample of sub-Saharan African countries during 1981-92. The results indicate that (i) an increase in private investment has a relatively large positive impact on per capita growth; (ii) growth is stimulated by public policies that lower the budget deficit in relation to GDP (without reducing government investment), reduce the rate of inflation, maintain external competitiveness, promote structural reforms, encourage human capital development, and slow population growth; and (iii) convergence of per capita income occurs after controlling for human capital development and public policies.
"Policy-makers often call for expanding public spending on infrastructure, which includes a broad range of investments from roads and bridges to digital networks that will expand access to high-speed broadband. Some point to near-term macro-economic benefits and job creation, others focus on long-term effects on productivity and economic growth. This volume explores the links between infrastructure spending and economic outcomes, as well as key economic issues in the funding and management of infrastructure projects. It draws together research studies that describe the short-run stimulus effects of infrastructure spending, develop new estimates of the stock of U.S. infrastructure capital, and explore the incentive aspects of public-private partnerships (PPPs). A salient issue is the treatment of risk in evaluating publicly-funded infrastructure projects and in connection with PPPs. The goal of the volume is to provide a reference for researchers seeking to expand research on infrastructure issues, and for policy-makers tasked with determining the appropriate level of infrastructure spending"--
This paper analyzes the effects of several policy and other macro-economic variables on the ratio of private investment to GDP in developing countries. Using data for a sample of 23 developing countries over the period 1975-87, the econometric evidence indicates that the rate of private investment is positively related to the real growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, and to a lesser extent the level of per capita GDP, while it is negatively related to domestic inflation, the debt service ratio, the debt-to-GDP ratio, and high real interest rates. There is also some indication that all but the last of these variables had a greater impact before the onset of the debt crisis in 1982, while the debt-to-GDP ratio (a measure of a country’s debt overhang) has become more important since then.
World Bank Discussion Paper No. 318. Analyzes the condition needed for achieving sustainable private sector growth in the Visegrad countries--the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic. The analysis focuses on the legal and regulatory framework and institutional capacity, the privatization of state enterprises, and private sector development.
This paper examines the empirical evidence on the contribution that government and, in particular, capital expenditure make to the growth performance of a sample of developing countries. Using the Denison growth accounting approach, this study finds that social expenditures may have a significant impact on growth in the short run, but infrastructure expenditures may have little influence. While current expenditures for directly productive purposes may exert a positive influence, capital expenditure in these sectors appears to exert a negative influence. Experiments with other explanatory variables confirm the importance of the growth of exports to the overall growth rate.
Public spending on infrastructure plays an important role in promoting economic growth and poverty alleviation. Empirical studies unequivocally show that under-investment in infrastructure limit economic growth. At the same time, numerous other studies have shown that investment in infrastructure can be a highly effective tool in fighting poverty reduction1. In that context, the financing of infrastructure has been a critical element of most economic growth and poverty reduction strategies in developing countries, since the start of this millennium. This book provides a comparative analysis of the aggregate and sectoral implications of higher spending on infrastructure in three very different Asian countries: China, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Particular attention is paid to the role of alternative financing mechanisms for increasing public infrastructure investment, namely distortionary and non-distortionary means of financing. The book will be of interest to scholars and policy-makers concerned with economic growth in developing countries.