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China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
This book will strongly appeal to those affiliated to multinational enterprises: managers, brokers, dealers and investors, as well as academics and researchers specialising in business economics and Asian studies.
This title provides an overall view of industrial geography in the context of contemporary China and investigates the development processes, research paradigms, and achievements of China’s industrial geography, with a particular focus on the post- reform period. The first two chapters introduce the overall background of industrialization and evolving policies of industrial geography in contemporary China. Based on sweeping literature reviews, empirical data analysis, and case studies, the author then examines key aspects of industrial geography and geographical patterns, dynamics, and the impact of industrial development. The following topics are discussed in detail: the geographical distribution and agglomeration of industries; national industrial parks; urbanization and industrialization; regional evolution of industries and interregional networks; firms and industrial organizations; exports, foreign investment, and trade; labour migration; land supply; industrial innovation; environmental issues and regulations; and industrial planning. In providing a full picture of the industrial geography of contemporary China, the title will be an essential reference for scholars and students studying economic geography, industrial geography, and the industrial and economic development of the People’s Republic of China.
Using the 2004 China economic census database, this paper examines the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on the geographic concentration of manufacturing industries, controlling for other determinants of industrial agglomeration. Higher geographic concentration is found consistently in industries where ICT are more widely adopted, and the association is stronger at higher geographic levels. Furthermore, young firms that have adopted ICT, although they are more footloose, contribute to industrial agglomeration. High-tech industries with advanced ICT also tend to agglomerate. Contrary to the prevalent argument that ICT lead to more dispersion, our study suggests that ICT promote industrial agglomeration.
Since its Economic Reform in 1978 China has sustained high rates of economic growth that have translated into ongoing increases in income per capital. On almost any dimension China’s economic miracle has created gains that are remarkable relative to gains that have been observed in other countries and in other time periods. This dissertation seeks to analyze the trends and pattern of China’s high-tech exports as well as the drivers of growth in China’s high-tech export. The first chapter seeks to explain the determinants of China’s high tech exports through the use of a gravity model of trade. For this project, China’s high tech exports from five key sectors are measured between bilateral province exporters and destination country importers. For this reason, identification of the effects of R&D is facilitated by wide variation across provinces in the sector-emphasis of R&D as well as in the relative importance of firm-level R&D funding of R&D effort. To control for basic trade determinants, the new R&D variables are added to a gravity estimation that tracks high tech exports by firms distinguished by ownership type at the sector level for each bilateral province destination country pair. Consistent with traditional use of gravity estimation, the traditional gravity variable perform as expected. More important, the full panel results and estimates from the preferred sample of ordinary export firms all reveal a positive effect of R&D effort on provincial high tech exports. The estimated impact related to the R&D measure that denotes the percentage of firms raising their own R&D funds is stronger than the effect associated with the level of R&D investments at the sector province level. The regression estimates imply that a 1% increase in provincial total R&D investments will increase estimated ordinary exports by 0.24%, while a 1% increase in share of firm raised R&D funds will increase estimated ordinary exports by 1.161%. Moving beyond the full sample estimates, this chapter uncovers notable sources of heterogeneity in the responsiveness to R&D effort. On this dimension, the estimation reveals sizeable differences in the benefits of R&D across sectors as well as differences in the ability of private or domestic Chinese firms to generate high tech exports. To understand how the quality of China’s trade has changed, the second chapter seeks to understand the factors which influenced China’s trade prices, measured by unit values. To motivate this inquiry, the chapter highlights the notable features in China’s trade with an emphasis on export prices for China’s high-tech manufacturing sectors. We characterize trading data in light of China’s provinces and the income levels of income for the destination countries that purchased their exports. Generally, the rank of rich, medium and poor remained relatively stable during our sample period. Only a few importers and exporters changed from poor to medium or from medium to rich or reversed. After we characterize China’s trade with a focus on province exporter and destination importer income, we turn to estimation to look for the factors that explain trade unit values. If one adopts Schott’s (2004) interpretation of unit values as indicators of quality, the results robustly show that human capital, measured by changes in education across provinces and over time, is an important determinant of rising export prices. When we evaluate issues related to technology we arrive at two conclusions. First, China manages to sell products with higher unit values when it exports goods that are characterized as having longer R&D product life cycles through the use of a measure created by Bilir (2014). Second, increased spending on R&D, which is identified through differences in R&D expenditure across provinces and across time, confirms a positive association between R&D spending at the provincial level and the unit values of the provinces exports. In chapter three, we extend our empirical research on evolving path of export sophistication and market competition, and we attempt to draw some policy implication based on the results of our estimation. To implement this project we use comprehensive Chinese provincial data on trade and economic characteristics to investigate the effect of industrial policy instruments and foreign direct investment on three aspects of China’s economy– local economic growth, export sophistication, and market concentration. We find evidence that China’s industrial policy instruments facilitated local economic growth, and promoted export sophistication. However, these instruments did not appear to encourage market competition. Importantly, the results suggest that the efficacy of the policy instruments varied across firms as distinguished by ownership types. For the estimation period, the results show that the allocation of policy resources to local private firms had a stronger impact on the attainment of positive economic outcomes. Furthermore, in terms of policy instrument efficacy, the estimation results indicate that subsidized interest rates had stronger effects than did subsidies or and tax holidays. From a broader policy perspective, these results show how the level and form of policy interventions shape the effectiveness of interventions targeted at improving local economies or the quality of exports.
High tech industry plays a significant role in the economic growth of any city. Cities compete against each other for attracting such high-tech industries. Everyone wants it, but not everyone can get it. After all, there will be some winners and some losers. The consequences of this scenario for unsuccessful cities raise some issues that should be a concern for planners and policy makers. How can a city determine whether is should pursue tech-based economic development, if at all, before investing critical resources. The goal of this study is to help cities assess their potential for attracting hightech industries. A city needs to compare its attributes with specific requirements of High-Tech industry to find its strengths and weaknesses, most of which depend on the geographical location of any city. For this evaluation, knowledge of all the factors which contribute to attract high-tech industry is necessary. Such knowledge would then help a city to prioritize the future development goals and objectives. This study involves collection of factors which attract high-tech industry based on prior research and literature review. The collected factors are then ranked based on expert opinions. In addition, a set of hypotheses are formulated for these factors stating their contribution in attracting high-tech industry. A correlation analysis is conducted to determine the strength of relationship with high-tech status of cities. The results are used to summarize characteristics of high-tech cities. Additionally, the results are tested against the set of hypotheses to determine if the literature findings are supported by statistical tests or not. These findings are used to evaluate the significance of various factors for attracting high-tech industry and the extent to which they influence high-tech industry locations.
The author also put forward policy advices on the themes above, such as the central government should pay more attention to the fairness goals in the market economy framework; some policies should be improved to positively and reasonably guide and regulate firm relocation in China, for example, enterprises from Chinese coastal areas should be encouraged to move to the mid and west areas; the industrialization and urbanization in mid and west areas should be accelerated; the economic development should be geared to the bearing capacity of natural resources and environment; industries and economic activities should be promoted to agglomerate effectively in metropolitan regions. This book provides comprehensive analysis on the relocation of enterprises in China, as well as the situation of China's regional economic development.
Since China's adoption of the “go global” strategy, more and more of China's privately owned enterprises have focused on outward foreign direct investment , and by doing so they have become the major market participants in China's internationalization process. This book presents authoritative academic and professional insights into the determinants of internationalization of China's indigenous privately owned enterprises. The case studies, in-depth interviews and investigations in this book will capture the interest of the readers and provide them with the background material and understanding of the determinants and possible pattern selection for internationalization of China's privately owned enterprises.