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States are motivated to do what they can in the present to prepare for long-term threats to their survival. The possibility of facing an overwhelming threat encourages interstate cooperation in the present, but ensuring long-term commitment among states is non-trivial, especially when the cause for cooperation is distant and ill-defined. Despite the challenges posed by both anarchy and uncertainty, states have developed institutions to enhance long-term cooperation, process uncertainty and create a group of like-minded states ready and willing to come to their defense. Some of these security integration institutions, such as alliances, are well known. Others, such as joint military exercises and defense cooperation agreements, are less commonly analyzed. Two of the papers in this three paper dissertation identify understudied security institutions, weapons coproduction and overseas military basing, and present a mix of data sources and methods to show how states utilize these institutions to increase their security ties. The third paper in the dissertation presents a novel measure of security alignment that aggregates existing data on security cooperation and accurately captures security relationships in the international system. Taken together, the papers in this project increase our understanding of how states act in the present to create long-term security commitment among like-minded states.
This research paper explores the history of U.S. security cooperation programs in Central Asia from 1993 to the present, identifying five distinct phases of development as those programs sought to achieve U.S. objectives in denuclearization and proliferation prevention, democratization and military reform, regional cooperation, and improvement of military capabilities. These security cooperation efforts were limited by a variety of factors, including the lack of political and economic reform in the region, Russian influence through bilateral cooperation agreements and multilateral security institutions, constrained resources, diffuse objectives and multiplying recipients, and U.S. policies that restrained commitment to Central Asia. Each of the programs available to U.S. planners had strengths and weaknesses, but these programs were not always integrated in a fashion to achieve the best results. The linkages between the specific activities and the ultimate objectives have not always been constant and still may not always be clear. As a result, the United States has had mixed results in building relationships, developing capabilities, and providing access. The United States should focus its efforts on Kazakhstan, more closely integrate the existing security cooperation programs within the Defense Department and across the U.S. government, leverage the assistance programs of North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners, and seek to employ a strategy of persistent engagement against a limited number of clearly defined objectives.
This research paper explores the history of US security cooperation programs in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, from 1993 to the present, identifying five distinct phases of development as those programs sought to achieve US objectives in denuclearization and proliferation prevention, democratization and military reform, regional cooperation, and improving military capabilities. The author elaborates on the limiting factors, successes, and a failure associated with those efforts and then makes recommendations for the future of US security cooperation in Central Asia in the future.