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Become a confident leader and use data, experience, and intuition to drive your decisions Agile decision making is imperative as you lead in a data-driven world. Amid streams of data and countless meetings, we make hasty decisions, slow decisions, and often no decisions. Uniquely bridging theory and practice, Decisions Over Decimals breaks this pattern by uniting data intelligence with human judgment to get to action — a sharp approach the authors refer to as Quantitative Intuition (QI). QI raises the power of thinking beyond big data without neglecting it and chasing the perfect decision while appreciating that such a thing can never really exist. Successful decision-makers are fierce interrogators. They square critical thinking with open-mindedness by blending information, intuition, and experience. Balancing these elements is at the heart of Decisions Over Decimals. This book is not only designed to be read - but frequently referenced - as you face innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; the rare resource that provides a set of pragmatic leadership tools to accelerate: Effectively framing the problem for stakeholders Synthesizing intelligence from incomplete information Delivering decisions that stick Strike the right balance between information and intuition and lead the smarter way with the real-world guidance found in Decisions Over Decimals.
Become a confident leader and use data, experience, and intuition to drive your decisions Agile decision making is imperative as you lead in a data-driven world. Amid streams of data and countless meetings, we make hasty decisions, slow decisions, and often no decisions. Uniquely bridging theory and practice, Decisions Over Decimals breaks this pattern by uniting data intelligence with human judgment to get to action — a sharp approach the authors refer to as Quantitative Intuition (QI). QI raises the power of thinking beyond big data without neglecting it and chasing the perfect decision while appreciating that such a thing can never really exist. Successful decision-makers are fierce interrogators. They square critical thinking with open-mindedness by blending information, intuition, and experience. Balancing these elements is at the heart of Decisions Over Decimals. This book is not only designed to be read - but frequently referenced - as you face innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; the rare resource that provides a set of pragmatic leadership tools to accelerate: Effectively framing the problem for stakeholders Synthesizing intelligence from incomplete information Delivering decisions that stick Strike the right balance between information and intuition and lead the smarter way with the real-world guidance found in Decisions Over Decimals.
You're sitting in a windowless conference room. Twenty minutes into the meeting the presenter finally makes it to slide four of a thirty two- slide deck. At least you can read this one, unlike the others, which were crammed with numbers, graphs and charts. You look around, wondering if anyone else is following the presentation. Just about everyone these days suffers from information overload the 24/7 explosion from our computers, smartphones, media, colleagues, and customers. Information is essential to making intelligent decisions, but more often than not, it simply overwhelms us. It's like trying to drink from a fire hose. The question isn't how to stop all those e-mails, meetings, conference calls, and fat reports; that's impossible. The question is what to do with them. How do you find the truly essential nuggets of information and use them with confidence? The solution proposed by Christopher Frank and Paul Magnone sounds deceptively simple: Learn how to ask the right questions at the right time. Whatever field you're in, asking smarter questions will expose you to new information, point you to connections between seemingly unrelated facts, and open new avenues of discussion with your colleagues. The authors explain the seven questions that can help you bring a big- picture perspective to problems that often leave others buried in irrelevant details. And they show through real-life case studies- including Trader Joe's, Starbucks, Kodak, Microsoft, iRobot, and IBM-how their method can have a dramatic impact. It really is possible to convert the fire hose of information into useful insights. Consider a nonbusiness example: the 2010 Icelandic volcano eruption that sent a giant ash cloud toward Europe. Tens of thousands of flights were canceled and five million passengers stranded, leading to billions in economic losses. Europe's best scientists generated oceans of data and carefully modeled the cloud's dispersion pattern. But no one could answer the essential question: Was the concentration of volcanic ash in the air enough to damage a jet engine? Without that key answer, all the carefully gathered facts were useless to the decision makers. Once you adopt the seven questions, you'll start having more productive brainstorming sessions. You'll answer critical questions faster and find unexpected solutions to important problems. And you'll get better at communicating to your colleagues with more clarity and focus, turning down the fire hose that other people have to cope with.
Why do people buy? A behavioral economist explains the science of consumer behavior in “the most important business book to come out in years” (Michael F. Schein, author and columnist for Inc., Forbes, and Psychology Today). What Your Customer Wants and Can’t Tell You explains the neuroscience of consumer behavior. Learn exactly why people buy—and how to use that knowledge to improve pricing, increase sales, create better “brain-friendly” brand messaging, and be a more effective leader. Behavioral economics is the marketing research future of brands and business. This book goes beyond an academic understanding of behavioral economics and into practical applications. Learn how real businesses and business professionals can use science to make their companies better. Business owner, consultant, and behavioral economics expert Melina Palmer helps leaders like you use the psychology of the consumer, innovation, and truly impactful branding to achieve real, bottom-line benefits. Discover information and tools you can actually use to influence consumers. Go beyond data science and learn how the consumer brain works. Dramatically improve your effectiveness as a leader and marketer with: · Real-world examples that bring a concept to life and make it stick · Ideas to help you with problem solving for your business · Ways to hack your brain into coming up with innovative programs, products, and initiatives “A stand-out guide for anyone fascinated by customer behavior and the science of decision-making.” —Madeline Quinlan, cofounder of Salient Behavioral Consultants
Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles--assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility--decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents * Decisions and uncertain events * A numerical measure for uncertainty * The laws of probability * A numerical measure for consequences * The utility of money * Bayes' Theorem * Value of information * Decision trees * The assessment of probabilities and utilities * An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index