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Through theory and case studies, this book details how uncertainty and flexibility can be evaluated to assist in making better investment decisions in companies. It delivers an excellent balance of theory and practice in the area of investment decision making, demonstrates how financial and real options are related, and describes the theoretical underpinnings of both. The author presents case studies from diverse industries, including life sciences, pharmaceuticals, commodities, energy, technology, manufacturing, and financial services. He also looks at how organizations can become successful using a holistic framework that integrates uncertainty and flexibility.
Note: the automatically generated Contents section on this web page makes no sense. Some book pages look weird in the Preview section. The word cloud below is rather misleading. The original PDF e-book is available free for non-commercial use. There is a link to the left, and another one behind the 'Buy/Get...' button. -------------- Subject: Nobody can make well-founded decisions without overview. In complex situations, overview requires diagrams. This short e-book shows how to make them. Step by step, from basic to advanced ones, with many example diagrams. Target audience: Everyone interested. No special knowledge required. Estimated reading time: 25-30 minutes Page layout: Allows easy reading without scrolling, even on very small screens. License: Free for non-commercial use, Creative Commons BY-NC-SA. Commercial use requires separate agreement. Technical information: Original PDF/A file size: 2 666 752 Byte MD5: f116273372e21e430d6d2da6c6733662 (file integrity checksum) Tags/keywords: decision making, decision quality, decision criteria, decision options, option evaluation, visualization, transparency, decision matrix, multi-party decision matrix, uncertainty, uncertainty handling, rating scale, two-step ratings
It’s said that decisions are made in the details. And yet, we make hundreds, even thousands of decisions daily. So how do Christians process all those details and come up with answers that please God? In Decision-Making by the Book, author, lecturer, and radio personality, Haddon W. Robinson, takes his usual clear-eyed, not-a-word-wasted approach, to help you make decisions according to biblical principles—every time.
Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.
Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401(k), everyday decisions—both big and small—have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. As Americans, we assume that more choice means better options and greater satisfaction. But beware of excessive choice: choice overload can make you question the decisions you make before you even make them, it can set you up for unrealistically high expectations, and it can make you blame yourself for any and all failures. In the long run, this can lead to decision-making paralysis, anxiety, and perpetual stress. And, in a culture that tells us that there is no excuse for falling short of perfection when your options are limitless, too much choice can lead to clinical depression. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains at what point choice—the hallmark of individual freedom and self-determination that we so cherish—becomes detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz shows how the dramatic explosion in choice—from the mundane to the profound challenges of balancing career, family, and individual needs—has paradoxically become a problem instead of a solution. Schwartz also shows how our obsession with choice encourages us to seek that which makes us feel worse. By synthesizing current research in the social sciences, Schwartz makes the counter intuitive case that eliminating choices can greatly reduce the stress, anxiety, and busyness of our lives. He offers eleven practical steps on how to limit choices to a manageable number, have the discipline to focus on those that are important and ignore the rest, and ultimately derive greater satisfaction from the choices you have to make.
Companies have more data at their fingertips than ever before. Yet, studies show that most executives and organizations fail to extract real value from it. Challenging the conventional wisdom of data-driven decision-making, marketing professors and behavioral scientists Bart De Langhe and Stefano Puntoni argue that many analytics efforts flounder because data analyses are disconnected from the decisions to be made. In their important book, they offer a new approach they call decision-driven analytics. Counterintuitively, they argue that the key to making good decisions with data is to start by putting data in the background. Drawing from their own research and teaching, as well as real-world business cases, De Langhe and Puntoni offer four pillars of decision-driven analytics and guide you around common mistakes that have held back many organizations from using data for impact. In Decision-Driven Analytics, you will learn how to: + Avoid common pitfalls in data-driven decision-making; + Close the gap between managers and decision-making on one side, and data scientists and data analytics on the other; + Enhance the impact of data analytics on business outcomes; + Think without data to make better decisions; + Prepare for artificial intelligence’s impact on data analytics; and + Evaluate the costs and benefits of decision-driven analytics. A must-read for anyone who wants to harness the power of data for competitive advantage, Decision-Driven Analytics will equip you with the skills and tools you need to more effectively use data for business outcomes and to make better decisions in today’s complex and data-rich world.
Designing and Evaluating E-Managemnet Decision Tools presents the most relevant concepts for designing intelligent decision tools in an Internet-based multimedia environment and assessing the tools using concepts of statistical design of experiments. The design principle is based on the visual interactive decision modeling (VIDEMO) paradigm. Several case studies are discussed in detail, referring to online preference elicitation, collaborative decision making, negotiation and conflict resolution, and marketing decision optimization. (See www.beroggi.net for more info on the book and Visual Interactive Decision Modeling)
Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.
Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices introduces a new concept of embodied choices which take sensorimotor experiences into account when limited time and resources forces a person to make a quick decision. This book combines areas of cognitive psychology and movement science, presenting an integrative approach to understanding human functioning in everyday scenarios. This is the first book focusing on the role of the gut as a second brain, introducing the link to risky behavior. The book's author engages readers by providing real-life experiences and scenarios connecting theory to practice. Discusses the role of gut feelings and the brain-gut behavior connection Demonstrates that behavior influences decision and other people’s perceptions about mood or character Includes research on medical decisions and shopping decisions Illustrates how to train embodied choices
This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into five parts: Technology Policy Planning, Strategic Technology Planning, Technology Assessment, Application Extensions, and Methodology Extensions. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics research and development, education, government planning, agriculture, energy, technology transfer, semiconductor manufacturing, and has influenced policy locally, nationally, and internationally. Moreover, his students developed advanced tools and software applications to further improve and enhance the robustness of the HDM approach. Dr. Kocaoglu has made many contributions to the field of Engineering and Technology Management. During his tenure at Portland State University, he founded the Engineering and Technology Management program, where he served as Program Director and later, Department Chair. He also started the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), which organizes an annual conference in international locations such as Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Thailand, and Japan. His teaching has won awards and resulted in a strong sense of student loyalty among his students even decades later. Through his academic work and research, Dr. Kocaoglu has strongly supported researchers of engineering management and has provided tremendous service to the field. This volume recognizes and celebrates Dr. Kocaoglu’s profound contributions to the field, and will serve as a resource for generations of researchers, practitioners and students.