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Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration By Paul D. Newendorp
Petroleum Economics and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide to E&P Investment Decision-Making, Volume 69, is a practical guide to the economic evaluation, risk evaluation and decision analysis of oil and gas projects through all stages of the asset lifecycle, from exploration to late life opportunities. This book will help readers understand and make decisions with regard to petroleum investment, portfolio analysis, discounting, profitability indicators, decision tree analysis, reserves accounting, exploration and production (E&P) project evaluation, and E&P asset evaluation. - Includes case studies and full color illustrations for practical application - Arranged to reflect lifecycle structure, from exploration through to decommissioning - Demonstrates industry-standard decision-making techniques as applied to petroleum investments in the oil and gas industry
Organizations today face complex decisions and uncertainties that can have a profound impact on their financial stability and strategic direction. Traditional decision-making methods often fall short when it comes to addressing multifaceted issues like financing, product manufacturing, and facility location. These challenges demand a robust framework that quantifies factors, assesses risks, and provides optimal solutions. Without advanced tools and techniques, businesses are at risk of making uninformed decisions that could lead to significant financial losses and missed opportunities. The urgency to equip yourself with these tools is clear. Decision and Prediction Analysis Powered With Operations Research offers a comprehensive solution to these challenges. This book integrates operations research techniques to reframe and solve complex business problems. It provides a detailed exploration of decision analysis tools, such as influence diagrams and decision trees, which help visualize and assess various decision scenarios. By applying these tools, organizations can better understand uncertainties, evaluate risks, and make decisions that maximize expected utility and achieve strategic objectives.
This book presents detailed explanations of how to formulate field development plans for oil and gas discovery. The data and case studies provided here, obtained from the authors’ field experience in the oil and gas industry around the globe, offer a real-world context for the theories and procedures discussed. The book covers all aspects of field development plan processes, from reserve estimations to economic analyses. It shows readers in both the oil and gas industry and in academia how to prepare field development plans in a straightforward way, and with substantially less uncertainty.
This book on hydrocarbon exploration and production is the first volume in the series Developments in Petroleum Science. The chapters are: The Field Life Cycle, Exploration, Drilling Engineering, Safety and The Environment, Reservoir Description, Volumetric Estimation, Field Appraisal, Reservoir Dynamic Behaviour, Well Dynamic Behaviour, Surface Facilities, Production Operations and Maintenance, Project and Contract Management, Petroleum Economics, Managing the Producing Field, and Decommissioning.
Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.
A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.