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The paper examines the causes, consequences, and potential cures of the large current account deficits in the Southern Euro Area (SEA). These were mostly driven by a decline in private saving rates. But it was the European Monetary Union and the Euro, which enabled these countries to maintain investment rates, and thus run larger current account deficits, by improving their access to the international pool of saving. The paper finds that the deficits in SEA in 2008 were larger than can be explained by fundamentals, though the situation varies substantially across countries. It also finds that although the global financial crisis has started to force some unwinding, the current account deficits are expected to remain high in the medium run, though again with substantial variation across countries. The paper argues these large external deficits pose risks to the economy and therefore matter, even in a currency union, and discusses some policy options to reduce them.
We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
This book takes a broad perspective to challenge orthodox views about the role of Euroland in the world economy, providing a comprehensive framework to address important questions for the future of the Euro, including the key question: will the single currency contribute to world economic dynamism or be driven by the vigour and vitality of others?
The first twenty years of the European Central Bank offer a unique insight into how a central bank can navigate macroeconomic insecurity and crisis. This volume examines the structures and decision-making processes behind the complex measures taken by the ECB to tackle some of the toughest economic challenges in the history of modern Europe.
The discussion of global and regional imbalances has put the spotlight on the possible link between current accounts and structural policies. Drawing on standard empirical current account models, the paper finds that the commonly recommended structural factors cannot explain the widening of imbalances prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis. That said, structural factors do help explain some part of long-standing cross-country differences in the current account levels. In particular, countries with stricter credit market regulation, higher taxes on businesses, lower minimum wage (in particular,in slow growing economies) and generous unemployment benefits tend to have higher current account balances than others.
The Eurozone is not a mere currency area. It is also a unique polity whose actors span multiple levels (supranational, national, regional, sectoral) and pursue overlapping economic and political objectives. Current thinking on the Eurozone relies on received categories that struggle to capture these constitutive features. This book addresses this analytical deficit by proposing a new approach to the political economy of the Eurozone, which captures economic and political interdependencies across different levels of decision making and sheds light on largely unexplored problems. The book explores the opportunities afforded by the structure of the Eurozone, and lays the foundations of a political economy that poses new questions and requires new answers. It provides categories that are firmly grounded in the existing configuration of the Eurozone, but are a precondition for overcoming the status quo in analysis and policy.
In recent years the countries of southern Europe have undergone, with varying intensity, a serious and prolonged economic crisis. Most have had to implement comprehensive economic adjustment programmes, including a wide range of structural reforms. Economic Crisis and Structural Reforms in Southern Europe examines these reforms, drawing policy lessons from their successes and failures. This book employs two basic strands of analysis: issues of policy design, and political economy considerations. It considers the choice of timing and sequencing of reforms, the choice of the appropriate policy instruments, the pressure of interest groups and the political calculations involved in reforms. Featuring chapters in which contributors explore both national cases of specific structural reforms, and a comparative approach in order to evaluate similar reforms across countries, this important and topical work explores ongoing issues within the economy. Focusing on the challenges of designing and implementing structural reforms under conditions of crisis, this book will be of interest to policy makers and researchers from national and international organizations as well as academics and members of research institutes interested in the economics and politics of the Eurozone crisis.
The economies of the eurozone countries are plagued by multiple crises, which cast major doubts over the future of the euro. In this engaging new book, leading economist Malcolm Sawyer argues that the entire policy framework of the eurozone was fundamentally flawed from its foundation. He shows how these ‘design faults’ intensified the crisis and are now locking in perpetual self-defeating austerity. Sawyer proposes a bold alternative agenda for reviving the continent’s economic prosperity and saving the euro. He argues, however, that the required solutions are certain to encounter huge obstacles. He therefore concludes that Europe faces a bleak economic future, blighted by low growth, high unemployment and social division. This major contribution to one of the key economic debates of our time will be essential reading for everyone interested in Europe’s future.
This book provides an authoritative source for which models of fiscal federalism are compatible with the constitutional boundaries of the European legal order. It offers an encompassing guide to the leading constitutional case law in all EU Member States.
Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.