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This note develops the foundations of the ideas underlying much of the theory and practice of International Finance, notably the basic 'parity conditions' linking exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates. Specifically, the note develops the ideas of purchasing power parity, speculative efficiency, uncovered interest parity, and the international Fisher effect, and the links among these from a managerial perspective. It includes a brief discussion of the factors driving exchange rate changes in the medium term, and of the three types of exchange rate exposure that cross-border firms face, namely translation exposure, transaction exposure, and economic exposure.
This note reviews the four central parity conditions that underlie most theories regarding the relationship between exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates. The concepts are illustrated through a unified example exploring the relation between the US dollar and the Norwegian krone. The note presents both an intuitive understanding of the relations as well as precise mathematical formulas frequently employed in analysis.ExcerptUVA-F-1572Rev. Oct. 18, 2019Parity Conditions in International MarketsGlobal firms are not the only ones affected by global markets. Even firms with only domestic operations and financing can be dramatically affected by changes in the international landscape associated with, among other things, exchange rate changes, global price changes, and capital market fluctuations.This note presents an overview of the theoretical frameworks that underlie most thinking and discussion about the relations between exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation. All the relations described in this note are based on one premise--that markets will move in response to profit-seeking activities in such a manner as to reach a point where profits are eliminated. When markets are at this zero-profit point and there are no incentives to act, the markets are in equilibrium and deemed to be in "parity." Hence, these basic relations are called parity conditions.Throughout this note, we will consider a single pair of currencies, the US dollar (USD) and the Norwegian krone (NOK). The discussion in this note assumes a familiarity with basic currency terminology and markets; however, a review of these topics is provided in the Appendix. All exchange rates express the relation between two currencies, and both interest and inflation rates are associated with specific currencies. We will introduce notation as concepts are covered. At this point, however, we note that every exchange rate states the value of one currency (we will refer to this as the quoted currency) in terms of another (we will refer to this as the basis currency). We will subscript interest and inflation rates with the letters q and b to indicate whether the rate is for the quoted or basis currencies, respectively.
International transactions among nations and multinational corporations are important and growing due to the openness of economies all over the world. In this follow-up title to Exchange Rates and International Financial Economics, Kallianiotis examines the role of the exchange rate and trade policy in improving the trade account. He discusses the international parity conditions extensively, together with the most popular theory in international finance, the interest rate parity (IRP) theory. International Financial Transactions and Exchange Rates describes these theories and gives practical solutions for multinational businesses, individuals, and nations. The increasing internationalization of businesses, openness of economies, integration of nations, change in the exchange rate system, and lastly, the deregulation of the financial market and institutions around the world have made the study of international finance necessary for all business students and professionals.
This book presents an extensive survey of the theory and empirics of international parity conditions which are critical to our understanding of the linkages between world markets and the movement of interest and exchange rates across countries. The book falls into three parts dealing with the theory, methods of econometric testing and existing empirical evidence. Although it is intended to provide a consensus view on the subject, the authors also make some controversial propositions, particularly on the purchasing power parity conditions.
The book presents all major subjects in international monetary theory, foreign exchange markets, international financial management and investment analysis. The book is relevant to real world problems in the sense that it provides guidance on how to solve policy issues as well as practical management tasks. This in turn helps the reader to gain an understanding of the theory and refines the framework. Various topics are interlinked so the book adopts a systematic treatment of integrated materials relating different theories under various circumstances and combining theory with practice. The text examines issues in international monetary policy and financial management in a practical way, focusing on the identification of the factors and players in foreign exchange markets and the international finance arena. The book can be used in graduate and advanced undergraduate programmes in international or global finance, international monetary economics, and international financial management.
We survey the literature on the two main views of exchange rate determination that have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flex-price, sticky-price and real interest differential formulations) and the portfolio balance approach. We then go on to discuss the extant empirical evidence on these models and conclude by discussing how the future research strategy in the area of exchange rate determination is likely to develop. We also discuss the literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, on exchange rates and ‘news’ and on international parity conditions.
This paper describes and analyzes forward market systems with varying degrees of sophistication, and it assesses them from the viewpoint of a smaller industrial or developing country asking itself how it could institute such a system, or how it could further develop an existing system in a way consistent with its institutional and macroeconomic structure. All industrial countries except Iceland now have forward exchange markets in which the rate is determined by the market. Forward markets that have been liberalized in several countries in the 1980s have matured quickly. There are several variants of market-determined systems which could be envisaged. An auction market could be devised for forward transactions, but is unlikely to be practical, because the supply of forward exchange probably may not be determined in advance sufficiently accurately. As the last stage of its development, the market could be extended from underlying commercial transactions to forward transactions of a purely financial character, a process that is taking place in most of the few industrial countries that have retained regulated forward systems. Development of a forward market is not a panacea for incorrect financial policies. In fact, cultivation of the market will require the adoption and maintenance of realistic financial policies.
Global Corporate Finance: A Focused Approach introduces students to basic principles of international corporate finance. The book stresses practical applications in a user-friendly format and is hence suitable for both undergraduate and graduate level courses in international finance. A self-contained book combining theory and applications, the text can be used in any part of the world as it takes a global viewpoint. Students will be exposed to key tools and techniques of global corporate finance without a complex treatment of theoretical financial concepts.
This book extends recent theories of incomplete markets to investigate empirically the appropriate balance between the market and the state in the trade relations between developed and developing countries. The conclusion is that in an ideal world government intervention in foreign exchange and trade is necessary in developing countries in the early stages and inevitably decreases as development occurs. Rationing of foreign exchange prevents a 'soft currency distortion' that commonly afflicts developing countries and can turn comparative advantage trade into competitive devaluation trade, with severe losses of income and welfare. Yotopoulos finds that the level of underdevelopment narrowly circumscribes and conditions the extent to which free-market, free-trade, laissez-faire can be beneficial, contrary to the mainstream policy paradigm as currently applied. The analysis and tests draw on empirical research from seventy countries and four extended country studies to confirm the usefulness and validity of the theoretical framework.
This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in an attempt to identify the roles of macroeconomic fundamentals and speculative market pressures in the recent crisis, as well as earlier devaluations in adjustable fixed exchange rate systems in the European currency markets. For a sample of five countries, including Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Norway, and Sweden, our empirical analyses show that both economic fundamentals and speculative factors have a significant influence on the probability of devaluations. The recent experience in the European foreign exchange markets suggests that the latest realignments are mainly the result of foreign exchange market tensions amidst the growing conflict between the needs of the domestic economies and the policies needed to maintain fixed exchange rates. Our results confirm that regardless of the source of the deterioration in economic conditions, market participants perceived the existing parities of the currencies in these five countries as inconsistent with their underlying economic fundamentals, thus effectively bringing about either a realignment or a modification of the exchange arrangement.