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This report investigates the potential effects of 12 free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. For this, it quantifies the cumulated sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand, and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights on the evolution of supply, demand, and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) to a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2030. The study confirms that the analysed free trade agreements have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector when considered simultaneously. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry, sugar, and rice sectors.
This volume is the result of research and exchange activities within the European Network of Agricultural and Rural Policy Research Institutes (ENARPRI). It synthesizes various analyses related to EU agricultural policies, trade agreements, and the issue of multifunctionality. The book focuses on the impact of regional, bilateral, and multilateral trade agreements that the EU has concluded or is in the process of negotiating, as well as on the interaction between EU policies and trade agreements, in the context of multifunctionality and sustainable development. Most of the trade agreements examined are extremely complex and impact not only efficiency and growth, but also income and welfare distribution within the EU. Special attention is given to the effects of possible WTO negotiation outcomes on the EU and third countries, as well as on the impact of the EuroMed trade proposals and agreements on trade flows and economic development of the EU's trading partners in the Mediterranean.
In this study, we have analysed the EU’s trade agreements on the basis of trade agreements with different characteristics: The trade agreements of the EU with Mexico ("first generation" trade agreement), South Korea (new generation Deep and Comprehensive Trade Agreement DCFTA) and Switzerland (specific sectorial agreements). The purpose was to assess the economic, social and environmental impacts of the agreements and to identify the main factors that have fostered and impeded the development of EU agri-food trade. To this end, we have collected data on global bilateral trade before and after the trade agreements entered into force on a detailed product level. We have also collected data on the preferential access granted by the trade agreements. We use a triple-difference model that controls for a range of factors that influence bilateral trade between the trading partners, and the model thus estimates the isolated impact of the agreements. We supplement the quantitative analysis with five case studies (Danish pigmeat exports to South Korea, Polish sugar confectionary exports to South Korea, French wine exports to Mexico, EU citrus fruits imports from Mexico and German cheese exports to Switzerland) to get insights into the broader impacts of the agreements on actors of the agri-food supply chain. Overall, the analysis finds that the trade agreements with Mexico, South Korea and Switzerland have increased EU agri-food exports by more than 1 bn. EUR and raised value added in the agri-food sector by 600 mn. EUR. The increased exports have supported almost 20,000 jobs in the agri-food sector, of which 13,700 jobs are in primary agriculture. There have also been benefits to other actors in the agri-food supply chain. Value added in other sectors has increased by more than 400 mn. EUR and an additional 7,700 jobs in the EU have been supported by the agreements. Most of these jobs are in wholesale and retail trade and in other business activities related to agri-food production and export. The trade agreements have also increased EU imports and given EU consumers access to agri-food products at lower prices. When production in the EU increases, CO2 emissions in the EU also increase. For a given level of consumption, this production replaces production in the trading partner or a third country, and the total environmental impact will depend on the environmental efficiency in the EU relative to this country as well as the environmental costs of transportation. The analysis shows that the trade agreements have ensured that EU exporters compete on more equal terms against exporters from third countries. An important lesson from this is that, looking ahead, continuously benchmarking of third countries’ trade negotiations with main EU trading partners and an efficient trade negotiation process with limited delays can lower the risk of foregone trade with other trading partners. Rising protectionism both in the EU and in main trading partners may limit trade in the future and hinder negotiations of new trade agreements. It is therefore important to continuously evaluate the impacts of existing trade agreements and use the results to engage in public debate about the pros and cons of trade liberalisation. It is also important to keep in mind that impacts differ across member states and sectors, and aggregate EU impacts may hide large disparities across individual actors in the EU agri-food supply chain.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is central to both economic and environmental developments in Europe. But with the advent of new environmental legislation and political change in Europe the CAP faces increasing pressure to reform. European Agriculture provides a comprehensive breakdown of the workings of the CAP and its impact on farming in Europe. The author discusses every aspect of European agricultural policy, production and trade, from environmental contraints and the impact of biotechnology, to the role of European farming in the world food supply system. Posing direct questions about the recent 1992 agricultural reform, the 1994 GATT agreement and the reasons for the expensive continuation of the CAP, European Agriculture analyses the economic, political and environmental implications of pursuing present farming policy and provides a provocative commentary on the agricultural future of Europe.
It has always proved difficult to achieve trade liberalization for agricultural products.This book shows how a new Agriculture Agreement in the WTO led to CAP reform, which in turn allowed for greater flexibility in subsequent international trade negotiations.
This book explores the extent to which EU Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) pursue sustainable agriculture in third country parties. It contends that this should be part of a duty for the EU enshrined in the Treaties to promote its fundamental values in its external action. It suggests that the extent to which this occurs in practice, may be reviewed judicially by the Court of Justice of the European Union. Against this background, selected agreements concluded by the EU with developed and developing countries (Canada, South Korea, Ukraine, Chile, SADC countries and Vietnam) are taken as case studies. The author concludes that, in spite of the remarkable progress made hitherto, EU trade policy is still far from being in line with the increasingly strong commitment of the EU to take the lead in the international arena for environmental and climate matters. This work adopts primarily a legal methodology, but it broaches the subject in interdisciplinary terms. It is addressed not only to (EU) policy-makers, but also to scholars of different fields and to the wider public interested in topics that have become of common concern for the future of our planet. With a foreword by Daniel Calleja Crespo, Director General of the European Commission - DG Environment
This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.
Contemporary trade policy is increasingly framed in geo-strategic terms. But how much of that rhetoric is reflected in actual policy choices by the EU or its trading partners? This book provides a first systematic study of the broader international context in which EU trade agreements are conceived, negotiated, and designed. Building on a refined conceptualisation of geo-economics, the book develops a cogent framework that combines insights from scholarship on the design of free trade agreements with ideas from foreign policy analysis. Empirically, the analysis focuses on the relations between the EU and the Asia-Pacific. Following the United States’ pivot to Asia and the EU’s Global Europe strategy, China’s backyard has become the main arena in which global powers’ geo-economic strategies overlap. Building on a series of case-studies, combining the perspectives from the EU and its trading partners, the book shows that the rhetoric of geo-economic competition is yet to catch up with the actual negotiation and design of free trade agreements. This volume will be of great interest to scholars, students and practitioners who want to gain a holistic understanding of contemporary trade negotiations.
This background paper to The State of Food and Agriculture 2023 reviews the methods used, as well as the data required, to estimate the hidden environmental, social and health costs associated with agrifood systems. The studies analysed are based on the true cost accounting approach, which can facilitate improved decision-making by policymakers, businesses, farmers, investors and consumers. The reviewed studies demonstrate that hidden costs of agrifood systems are considerable, and that action is needed at global, national and local levels. To apply true cost accounting at the country level, the methods developed must be downscaled and the data limitations overcome. This review goes through each cost category – environmental, social and health – and proposes approaches to deal with them, with a focus on country-level estimates and analysis, especially in data-scarce countries. Where data are not available or time is limited, methods combining secondary data are suggested. In some cases, the suggestion is to collaborate with research centres.The paper further argues that, when addressing hidden costs in agrifood systems, trade-offs may arise, which may require the use of more complex tools, such as partial and general equilibrium models, to analyse their impacts on different areas. In general, the extent of the compromise will be minimized if there are at least as many policy instruments as there are objectives. For example, if a country seeks to restore fish stocks and address rural poverty, restricting catch alone could increase poverty in the artisanal fishing community. Adding income support, however, could allow both objectives to be met.