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Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, is undergoing a profound transformation that could lead to a variety of outcomes, from the consolidation of democracy to return to authoritarianism or military rule, to radical Islamic rule, or to violent disintegration. The stakes are high, for Indonesia is the key to Southeast Asian security. The authors examine the trends and dynamics that are driving Indonesia's transformation, outline possible strategic futures and their implications for regional stability, and identify options the United States might pursue in the critical challenge of influencing Indonesia's future course. Steps the United States might take now include support for Indonesia's stability and territorial integrity, reestablishment of Indonesian-U.S. military cooperation and interaction, aid in rebuilding a constructive Indonesian role in regional security, and support for development of a regional crisis reaction force. A continued strong U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific region will reinforce the U.S. role as regional balancer.
For most of the past two decades, the U.S. accepted Indonesia's incorporation of East Timor without acknowledging that a valid act of self-determination had taken place. That formulation arose from a 'realist' evaluation that Indonesia was key to U.S. interests in Southeast Asia, that Indonesia's sovereignty over East Timor was a fact not likely to be reversed, and that legitimate human rights concerns would be most effectively addressed within the context of the larger Washington-Jakarta relationship. This year, a U.N.-sponsored referendum brought a 78 percent East Timorese vote for independence. Resulting pressures eventuated in a reluctant Indonesia s acceptance of international peacemakers. While Washington was not central to most of those developments, it was supportive, and at times instrumental, for them. This was an apparent change from the earlier policy. This paper briefly recalls (from the author s memory) the U.S. policy process of the early '90s, fast-forwards to 1999 to describe current players and their influences (based on interviews with participants), and evaluates how well the 'process' has performed this year. It appears that American decision-makers in 1999 were primarily influenced by events and by our Australian ally. It is less clear that Washington overtly considered all U.S. interests. A more U.S.-centered approach may well have come to a very similar outcome regarding East Timor. Still, in general, the U.S. best supports its interests by engaging in a more structured strategic analysis and a longer-term view.
The military is one of the few institutions that cut across the divides of Indonesian society. As it continues to play a critical part in determining Indonesia's future, the military itself is undergoing profound change. The authors of this book examine the role of the military in politics and society since the fall of President Suharto in 1998. They present several strategic scenarios for Indonesia, which have important implications for U.S.-Indonesian relations, and propose goals for Indonesian military reform and elements of a U.S. engagement policy.
Argues for greater openness in the ways we approach human rights and international rights promotion, and in so doing brings some new understanding to old debates.
East Timor's violent transition to independence, which began early in 1999, presented the Australian Government with a significant foreign policy crisis. This crisis was not sudden, totally unexpected or ultimately threatening to Australia's survival. But the crisis consumed the attention of Australian leaders, saw significant national and international resources employed, and led to the largest operational deployment for the Australian Defence Force since the Vietnam War. This crisis also created a significant rupture in the hitherto carefully-managed relationships between Australia and its important neighbor, Indonesia. The events of September 1999 ultimately led to the birth of a new nation and the deaths of many people who might have otherwise expected to enjoy that independence. In this major study, David Connery examines how the Australian Government - at the political and bureaucratic levels - developed and managed national security policy in the face of this crisis. The events, and the policymaking processes that both led and followed, are reconstructed using sixty interviews with key participants. This study identifies certain characteristics of crisis policymaking in Australia that include a dominant executive, secrecy, external actors and complexity.
This book argues that the international community must share responsibility for contributing to the conditions that resulted in violent conflict in Timor-Leste, four years after it declared independence from Indonesia. Its failure to tailor interventions to Timor-Leste’s specific political economy and conflict dynamics distanced the state from its citizens and undermined its capacity to forge a political settlement founded on a robust social contract. At a time in which conflict-affected states are receiving unprecedented attention and peacekeeping operations and humanitarian emergencies are becoming increasingly complex, this book argues that radical changes are urgently required in the way the international community operates in these environments. The findings are rooted in an examination of the mechanisms used by international development actors in Timor-Leste between 1998 and 2006. In bringing together wide-ranging perspectives, the author shows that international actions cannot be separated from the local political and socio-economic context, demonstrating that interventions are never ‘apolitical’ and that peacebuilding must be intentional. Indeed, political settlements premised on a robust social contract should not be taken for granted anywhere. The impact of increasing disenfranchisement, mistrust in institutions and structural inequalities evident in the global North suggest that lessons from peacebuilding in Timor-Leste are relevant far beyond its shores. This book is essential for students and researchers in the fields of development studies, international political economy, peacebuilding and conflict resolution, and for practitioners and policymakers striving to advance peace.