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The project "Credit Card Churning Customer Analysis and Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning with Python" involved a comprehensive analysis and prediction task focused on understanding customer attrition in a credit card churning scenario. The objective was to explore a dataset, visualize the distribution of features, and predict the attrition flag using both machine learning and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques. The project began by loading the dataset containing information about credit card customers, including various features such as customer demographics, transaction details, and account attributes. The dataset was then explored to gain a better understanding of its structure and contents. This included checking the number of records, identifying the available features, and inspecting the data types. To gain insights into the data, exploratory data analysis (EDA) techniques were employed. This involved examining the distribution of different features, identifying any missing values, and understanding the relationships between variables. Visualizations were created to represent the distribution of features. These visualizations helped identify any patterns, outliers, or potential correlations in the data. The target variable for prediction was the attrition flag, which indicated whether a customer had churned or not. The dataset was split into input features (X) and the target variable (y) accordingly. Machine learning algorithms were then applied to predict the attrition flag. Various classifiers such as Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (NN), Gradient Boosting, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting, were utilized. These models were trained using the training dataset and evaluated using appropriate performance metrics. Model evaluation involved measuring the accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score of each classifier. These metrics provided insights into how well the models performed in predicting customer attrition. Additionally, a confusion matrix was created to analyze the true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative predictions. This matrix allowed for a deeper understanding of the classifier's performance and potential areas for improvement. Next, a deep learning approach using an artificial neural network (ANN) was employed for attrition flag prediction. The dataset was preprocessed, including features normalization, one-hot encoding of categorical variables, and splitting into training and testing sets. The ANN model architecture was defined, consisting of an input layer, one or more hidden layers, and an output layer. The number of nodes and activation functions for each layer were determined based on experimentation and best practices. The ANN model was compiled by specifying the loss function, optimizer, and evaluation metrics. Common choices for binary classification problems include binary cross-entropy loss and the Adam optimizer. The model was then trained using the training dataset. The training process involved feeding the input features and target variable through the network, updating the weights and biases using backpropagation, and repeating this process for multiple epochs. During training, the model's performance on both the training and validation sets was monitored. This allowed for the detection of overfitting or underfitting and the adjustment of hyperparameters, such as the learning rate or the number of hidden layers, if necessary. The accuracy and loss values were plotted over the epochs to visualize the training and validation performance of the ANN. These plots provided insights into the model's convergence and potential areas for improvement. After training, the model was used to make predictions on the test dataset. A threshold of 0.5 was applied to the predicted probabilities to classify the predictions as either churned or not churned customers. The accuracy score was calculated by comparing the predicted labels with the true labels from the test dataset. Additionally, a classification report was generated, including metrics such as precision, recall, and F1-score for both churned and not churned customers. To further evaluate the model's performance, a confusion matrix was created. This matrix visualized the true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative predictions, allowing for a more detailed analysis of the model's predictive capabilities. Finally, a custom function was utilized to create a plot comparing the predicted values to the true values for the attrition flag. This plot visualized the accuracy of the model and provided a clear understanding of how well the predictions aligned with the actual values. Through this comprehensive analysis and prediction process, valuable insights were gained regarding customer attrition in credit card churning scenarios. The machine learning and ANN models provided predictions and performance metrics that can be used for decision-making and developing strategies to mitigate attrition. Overall, this project demonstrated the power of machine learning and deep learning techniques in understanding and predicting customer behavior. By leveraging the available data, it was possible to uncover patterns, make accurate predictions, and guide business decisions aimed at retaining customers and reducing attrition in credit card churning scenarios.
PROJECT 1: DEFAULT LOAN PREDICTION BASED ON CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning with Python In finance, default is failure to meet the legal obligations (or conditions) of a loan, for example when a home buyer fails to make a mortgage payment, or when a corporation or government fails to pay a bond which has reached maturity. A national or sovereign default is the failure or refusal of a government to repay its national debt. The dataset used in this project belongs to a Hackathon organized by "Univ.AI". All values were provided at the time of the loan application. Following are the features in the dataset: Income, Age, Experience, Married/Single, House_Ownership, Car_Ownership, Profession, CITY, STATE, CURRENT_JOB_YRS, CURRENT_HOUSE_YRS, and Risk_Flag. The Risk_Flag indicates whether there has been a default in the past or not. The machine learning models used in this project are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Adaboost, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, and CNN 1D. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, ROC, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 2: AIRLINE PASSENGER SATISFACTION Analysis and Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning with Python The dataset used in this project contains an airline passenger satisfaction survey. In this case, you will determine what factors are highly correlated to a satisfied (or dissatisfied) passenger and predict passenger satisfaction. Below are the features in the dataset: Gender: Gender of the passengers (Female, Male); Customer Type: The customer type (Loyal customer, disloyal customer); Age: The actual age of the passengers; Type of Travel: Purpose of the flight of the passengers (Personal Travel, Business Travel); Class: Travel class in the plane of the passengers (Business, Eco, Eco Plus); Flight distance: The flight distance of this journey; Inflight wifi service: Satisfaction level of the inflight wifi service (0:Not Applicable;1-5); Departure/Arrival time convenient: Satisfaction level of Departure/Arrival time convenient; Ease of Online booking: Satisfaction level of online booking; Gate location: Satisfaction level of Gate location; Food and drink: Satisfaction level of Food and drink; Online boarding: Satisfaction level of online boarding; Seat comfort: Satisfaction level of Seat comfort; Inflight entertainment: Satisfaction level of inflight entertainment; On-board service: Satisfaction level of On-board service; Leg room service: Satisfaction level of Leg room service; Baggage handling: Satisfaction level of baggage handling; Check-in service: Satisfaction level of Check-in service; Inflight service: Satisfaction level of inflight service; Cleanliness: Satisfaction level of Cleanliness; Departure Delay in Minutes: Minutes delayed when departure; Arrival Delay in Minutes: Minutes delayed when Arrival; and Satisfaction: Airline satisfaction level (Satisfaction, neutral or dissatisfaction) The machine learning models used in this project are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, and CNN 1D. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, ROC, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 3: CREDIT CARD CHURNING CUSTOMER ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING AND DEEP LEARNING WITH PYTHON The dataset used in this project consists of more than 10,000 customers mentioning their age, salary, marital_status, credit card limit, credit card category, etc. There are 20 features in the dataset. In the dataset, there are only 16.07% of customers who have churned. Thus, it's a bit difficult to train our model to predict churning customers. Following are the features in the dataset: 'Attrition_Flag', 'Customer_Age', 'Gender', 'Dependent_count', 'Education_Level', 'Marital_Status', 'Income_Category', 'Card_Category', 'Months_on_book', 'Total_Relationship_Count', 'Months_Inactive_12_mon', 'Contacts_Count_12_mon', 'Credit_Limit', 'Total_Revolving_Bal', 'Avg_Open_To_Buy', 'Total_Amt_Chng_Q4_Q1', 'Total_Trans_Amt', 'Total_Trans_Ct', 'Total_Ct_Chng_Q4_Q1', and 'Avg_Utilization_Ratio',. The target variable is 'Attrition_Flag'. The machine learning models used in this project are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, and CNN 1D. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, ROC, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 4: MARKETING ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING AND DEEP LEARNING WITH PYTHON This data set was provided to students for their final project in order to test their statistical analysis skills as part of a MSc. in Business Analytics. It can be utilized for EDA, Statistical Analysis, and Visualizations. Following are the features in the dataset: ID = Customer's unique identifier; Year_Birth = Customer's birth year; Education = Customer's education level; Marital_Status = Customer's marital status; Income = Customer's yearly household income; Kidhome = Number of children in customer's household; Teenhome = Number of teenagers in customer's household; Dt_Customer = Date of customer's enrollment with the company; Recency = Number of days since customer's last purchase; MntWines = Amount spent on wine in the last 2 years; MntFruits = Amount spent on fruits in the last 2 years; MntMeatProducts = Amount spent on meat in the last 2 years; MntFishProducts = Amount spent on fish in the last 2 years; MntSweetProducts = Amount spent on sweets in the last 2 years; MntGoldProds = Amount spent on gold in the last 2 years; NumDealsPurchases = Number of purchases made with a discount; NumWebPurchases = Number of purchases made through the company's web site; NumCatalogPurchases = Number of purchases made using a catalogue; NumStorePurchases = Number of purchases made directly in stores; NumWebVisitsMonth = Number of visits to company's web site in the last month; AcceptedCmp3 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 3rd campaign, 0 otherwise; AcceptedCmp4 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 4th campaign, 0 otherwise; AcceptedCmp5 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 5th campaign, 0 otherwise; AcceptedCmp1 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 1st campaign, 0 otherwise; AcceptedCmp2 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 2nd campaign, 0 otherwise; Response = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the last campaign, 0 otherwise; Complain = 1 if customer complained in the last 2 years, 0 otherwise; and Country = Customer's location. The machine and deep learning models used in this project are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, and CNN 1D. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, ROC, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 5: METEOROLOGICAL DATA ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON Meteorological phenomena are described and quantified by the variables of Earth's atmosphere: temperature, air pressure, water vapour, mass flow, and the variations and interactions of these variables, and how they change over time. Different spatial scales are used to describe and predict weather on local, regional, and global levels. The dataset used in this project consists of meteorological data with 96453 total number of data points and with 11 attributes/columns. Following are the columns in the dataset: Formatted Date; Summary; Precip Type; Temperature (C); Apparent Temperature (C); Humidity; Wind Speed (km/h); Wind Bearing (degrees); Visibility (km); Pressure (millibars); and Daily Summary. The machine learning models used in this project are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy.
The proposed book will discuss various aspects of big data Analytics. It will deliberate upon the tools, technology, applications, use cases and research directions in the field. Chapters would be contributed by researchers, scientist and practitioners from various reputed universities and organizations for the benefit of readers.
Apply powerful Data Mining Methods and Models to Leverage your Data for Actionable Results Data Mining Methods and Models provides: * The latest techniques for uncovering hidden nuggets of information * The insight into how the data mining algorithms actually work * The hands-on experience of performing data mining on large data sets Data Mining Methods and Models: * Applies a "white box" methodology, emphasizing an understanding of the model structures underlying the softwareWalks the reader through the various algorithms and provides examples of the operation of the algorithms on actual large data sets, including a detailed case study, "Modeling Response to Direct-Mail Marketing" * Tests the reader's level of understanding of the concepts and methodologies, with over 110 chapter exercises * Demonstrates the Clementine data mining software suite, WEKA open source data mining software, SPSS statistical software, and Minitab statistical software * Includes a companion Web site, www.dataminingconsultant.com, where the data sets used in the book may be downloaded, along with a comprehensive set of data mining resources. Faculty adopters of the book have access to an array of helpful resources, including solutions to all exercises, a PowerPoint(r) presentation of each chapter, sample data mining course projects and accompanying data sets, and multiple-choice chapter quizzes. With its emphasis on learning by doing, this is an excellent textbook for students in business, computer science, and statistics, as well as a problem-solving reference for data analysts and professionals in the field. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available onlne.
The beating heart of any product or service business is returning clients. Don't let your hard-won customers vanish, taking their money with them. In Fighting Churn with Data you'll learn powerful data-driven techniques to maximize customer retention and minimize actions that cause them to stop engaging or unsubscribe altogether. Summary The beating heart of any product or service business is returning clients. Don't let your hard-won customers vanish, taking their money with them. In Fighting Churn with Data you'll learn powerful data-driven techniques to maximize customer retention and minimize actions that cause them to stop engaging or unsubscribe altogether. This hands-on guide is packed with techniques for converting raw data into measurable metrics, testing hypotheses, and presenting findings that are easily understandable to non-technical decision makers. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the technology Keeping customers active and engaged is essential for any business that relies on recurring revenue and repeat sales. Customer turnover—or “churn”—is costly, frustrating, and preventable. By applying the techniques in this book, you can identify the warning signs of churn and learn to catch customers before they leave. About the book Fighting Churn with Data teaches developers and data scientists proven techniques for stopping churn before it happens. Packed with real-world use cases and examples, this book teaches you to convert raw data into measurable behavior metrics, calculate customer lifetime value, and improve churn forecasting with demographic data. By following Zuora Chief Data Scientist Carl Gold’s methods, you’ll reap the benefits of high customer retention. What's inside Calculating churn metrics Identifying user behavior that predicts churn Using churn reduction tactics with customer segmentation Applying churn analysis techniques to other business areas Using AI for accurate churn forecasting About the reader For readers with basic data analysis skills, including Python and SQL. About the author Carl Gold (PhD) is the Chief Data Scientist at Zuora, Inc., the industry-leading subscription management platform. Table of Contents: PART 1 - BUILDING YOUR ARSENAL 1 The world of churn 2 Measuring churn 3 Measuring customers 4 Observing renewal and churn PART 2 - WAGING THE WAR 5 Understanding churn and behavior with metrics 6 Relationships between customer behaviors 7 Segmenting customers with advanced metrics PART 3 - SPECIAL WEAPONS AND TACTICS 8 Forecasting churn 9 Forecast accuracy and machine learning 10 Churn demographics and firmographics 11 Leading the fight against churn
Data Science and Machine Learning are in high demand, as customers are increasingly looking for ways to glean insights from all their data. More customers now realize that Business Intelligence is not enough as the volume, speed and complexity of data now defy traditional analytics tools. While Business Intelligence addresses descriptive and diagnostic analysis, Data Science unlocks new opportunities through predictive and prescriptive analysis. The purpose of this book is to provide a gentle and instructionally organized introduction to the field of data science and machine learning, with a focus on building and deploying predictive models. The book also provides a thorough overview of the Microsoft Azure Machine Learning service using task oriented descriptions and concrete end-to-end examples, sufficient to ensure the reader can immediately begin using this important new service. It describes all aspects of the service from data ingress to applying machine learning and evaluating the resulting model, to deploying the resulting model as a machine learning web service. Finally, this book attempts to have minimal dependencies, so that you can fairly easily pick and choose chapters to read. When dependencies do exist, they are listed at the start and end of the chapter. The simplicity of this new service from Microsoft will help to take Data Science and Machine Learning to a much broader audience than existing products in this space. Learn how you can quickly build and deploy sophisticated predictive models as machine learning web services with the new Azure Machine Learning service from Microsoft.
This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.
This book gathers papers addressing state-of-the-art research in all areas of information and communication technologies and their applications in intelligent computing, cloud storage, data mining and software analysis. It presents the outcomes of the Fifth International Conference on Information and Communication Technology for Intelligent Systems (ICTIS 2021), held in Ahmedabad, India. The book is divided into two volumes. It discusses the fundamentals of various data analysis techniques and algorithms, making it a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners alike.
Gain practical insights into predictive modelling by implementing Predictive Analytics algorithms on public datasets with Python About This Book A step-by-step guide to predictive modeling including lots of tips, tricks, and best practices Get to grips with the basics of Predictive Analytics with Python Learn how to use the popular predictive modeling algorithms such as Linear Regression, Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, and Clustering Who This Book Is For If you wish to learn how to implement Predictive Analytics algorithms using Python libraries, then this is the book for you. If you are familiar with coding in Python (or some other programming/statistical/scripting language) but have never used or read about Predictive Analytics algorithms, this book will also help you. The book will be beneficial to and can be read by any Data Science enthusiasts. Some familiarity with Python will be useful to get the most out of this book, but it is certainly not a prerequisite. What You Will Learn Understand the statistical and mathematical concepts behind Predictive Analytics algorithms and implement Predictive Analytics algorithms using Python libraries Analyze the result parameters arising from the implementation of Predictive Analytics algorithms Write Python modules/functions from scratch to execute segments or the whole of these algorithms Recognize and mitigate various contingencies and issues related to the implementation of Predictive Analytics algorithms Get to know various methods of importing, cleaning, sub-setting, merging, joining, concatenating, exploring, grouping, and plotting data with pandas and numpy Create dummy datasets and simple mathematical simulations using the Python numpy and pandas libraries Understand the best practices while handling datasets in Python and creating predictive models out of them In Detail Social Media and the Internet of Things have resulted in an avalanche of data. Data is powerful but not in its raw form - It needs to be processed and modeled, and Python is one of the most robust tools out there to do so. It has an array of packages for predictive modeling and a suite of IDEs to choose from. Learning to predict who would win, lose, buy, lie, or die with Python is an indispensable skill set to have in this data age. This book is your guide to getting started with Predictive Analytics using Python. You will see how to process data and make predictive models from it. We balance both statistical and mathematical concepts, and implement them in Python using libraries such as pandas, scikit-learn, and numpy. You'll start by getting an understanding of the basics of predictive modeling, then you will see how to cleanse your data of impurities and get it ready it for predictive modeling. You will also learn more about the best predictive modeling algorithms such as Linear Regression, Decision Trees, and Logistic Regression. Finally, you will see the best practices in predictive modeling, as well as the different applications of predictive modeling in the modern world. Style and approach All the concepts in this book been explained and illustrated using a dataset, and in a step-by-step manner. The Python code snippet to implement a method or concept is followed by the output, such as charts, dataset heads, pictures, and so on. The statistical concepts are explained in detail wherever required.