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We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.
A remote mission to the National Accounts Department (NAD) of Saint Lucia supported the development of rebased estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by expenditure. The mission compiled a candidate methodology for all components of the expenditure, covering current and constant price series for both annual and quarterly estimates of GDP. The new estimates will be benchmarked from the last Supply and Use Table from 2016. The method will replace the previous approach which was only compiled annually in current prices – which was last published in 2018.
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate at which prices of consumer goods and services change over time. It is used as a key indicator of economic performance, as well as in the setting of monetary and socio-economic policy such as indexation of wages and social security benefits, purchasing power parities and inflation measures. This manual contains methodological guidelines for statistical offices and other agencies responsible for constructing and calculating CPIs, and also examines underlying economic and statistical concepts involved. Topics covered include: expenditure weights, sampling, price collection, quality adjustment, sampling, price indices calculations, errors and bias, organisation and management, dissemination, index number theory, durables and user costs.
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the fiscal deficit of the Republic of Poland widened sharply in 2001, reflecting both automatic stabilizers and a 1⁄2 percent increase in the structural deficit. State (central government) primary expenditures (excluding one-off transfers) rose relative to GDP by 1 percentage point, notwithstanding cutbacks late in the year. Two factors accounted for this rise: significant increases in transfers and subsidies to households, agricultural and state enterprises, as well as wages; and outcomes for inflation and growth that were far below budget projections.
This paper provides an assessment of real exchange rate measures and their impact on trade performance with special reference to two Pacific island countries, Fiji and Samoa. The analysis shows that the commonly used CPI-based real effective exchange rate (REER) measure provides a useful starting point of assessment, but alternative measures based on other price and cost indices should be used to check the robustness of the results, particularly given the large impact of global commodity prices on small open economies. The paper also offers some illustrations of how to quantify the impact of exchange rate movements on trade, especially in the face of data constraints in small open economies.
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