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Provincial and territorial government officials currently use ICU capacity and hospital utilization numbers as the benchmark to establishing or re-introducing vaccine certifications and/or restrictions. These two categories are lagging indicators. As a result, the healthcare system is impacted and stressed prior to government intervention. To avert increases in the number of Covid-19 ICU cases and hospital utilization (burdening the healthcare system), provincial and territorial governments require leading indicators of future Covid-19 case growth. Government may then choose to apply appropriate restrictions earlier, therefore allowing for improved Covid-19 case containment. The charts provided within this document, provide three to four week lead time over conventional epidemiology modeling. Indicators such as MACD, RSI, Channel Identification, and Head and Shoulder pattern recognition are leading indicators of future changes in case counts. 9,12, and 50 day exponential moving averages are utilized compared against a seven day simple rolling moving average. Addressing the results these indicators provide BEFORE Covid-19 case counts begin to impact ICU capacity and hospital utilization circumvents future healthcare capacity problems and thwarting application of further/re-introduced harmful restrictions. As discussed in the medical disclaimer on the boomslanganalytics.ca website. This information deck and any supplemental information provided is for information purposes only. If you wish to apply any of the material noted in this information deck please seek the guidance of a health care professional.
SARS-Cov-2 was first reported in Wuhan, a town in Hubei Province of China with a population of 11 million in December 2019, following an outbreak of non-pneumonia of a clear cause. The virus has now spread across the globe considerably more than 200 countries and territories, and the world health organization (WHO) described it as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. On the economic front, Covid 19 has led more than 200 countries partially or totally lockdown. This situation disrupted global supply chain, and induced a significant fall in both economic activity and financial asset prices. Canada, being one of the country affected by the Virus with 731 000 Cases, and 18 622 Deaths as at the 21 of January 2020. Recently vaccines have been developed but the contamination wave keeps on increasing every day. On the socioeconomic front, COVID-19 has led more than 200 countries into partial or total lockdown, disrupted global supply chains, and induced a fall in both economic activity and financial asset prices. The impact of Covid 19 is unclear because the public health crisis is still unfolding. There is limited amount of studies concerning this topic, because the crisis is still unfolding. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on Canada's financial markets, case study Canada's Commodity Markets and Canada's Treasury Bills. The author uses extreme bound analysis for market interpretation and sourced data from Bank of Canada and Our World in Data Covid-19, from January 1 to December 31 2020. The result of the study shows that, Total deaths per million (TD) have an impact on the monthly Bank of Canada's commodity price index of energy because of the robust relationship between them. Furthermore, the result also shows that, commodity price index of energy and total deaths per million are determinants to total commodity price index.
It is impossible to reflect on 2020 without discussing Covid-19. The term, literally meaning corona- (CO) virus (VI) disease (D) of 2019, has become synonymous with “the virus”, “corona” and “the pandemic”. The impact of the virus on our lives is unprecedented in modern human history, in terms of scale, depth and resilience. When compared to other epidemics that have plagued the world in recent decades, Covid-19 is often referred to as being much more “deadly” and is associated with advances in technology which scientists have described as “revolutionary”. From politics to economics, spanning families and continents, Covid-19 has unsettled norms: cultural clashes are intensified, politics are even more polarized, and regional tensions and conflicts are on the rise. Global trade patterns and supply chains are increasingly being questioned and redrawn. The world is being atomized, and individuals are forced to accept the “new normal” in their routines. In an attempt to combat the virus and minimize its detrimental effects, countries have undertaken different preventive strategies and containment policies. Some have successfully curbed the spread of Covid-19, while many others remain in limbo, doing their best to respond to outbreaks in cases. To gain a better understanding of how to fight Covid-19, it is imperative to evaluate the success and failures of these approaches. Under what conditions is an approach successful? When should it be avoided? How can this information be used to avoid future pandemics? This volume offers informative comparative case studies that shed light on these key questions. Each country case is perceptively analyzed and includes a detailed timeline, allowing readers to view each response with hindsight and extrapolate the data to better understand what the future holds. Taken as a whole, this collection offers invaluable insight at this critical juncture in the Covid-19 pandemic. “In the ‘post-truth’ era, such careful documentation of the facts is especially welcome.” Dr Tania Burchardt Associate Professor, Department of Social Policy London School of Economics and Political Science “The end is not yet in sight for the pandemic but in these pages the key factors in its development and some possible solutions for the future are laid out in ways that make it indispensable reading.” Prof David S. G. Goodman Professor of China Studies and former Vice President, Academic Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou “This book is an important and groundbreaking effort by social scientists to understand on how states have been managing the crisis.” Kevin Hewison Weldon E. Thornton Distinguished Emeritus Professor University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill “This is exactly the kind of research that will contribute to our fight against Covid-19.” Tak-Wing Ngo University of Macau “A well-researched book on Covid-19 highlighting the value of the meticulous fact-based groundwork by an international team.” Carlson Tong, GBS, JP Former Chairman, Securities and Futures Commission, Hong Kong Chairman, University Grants Committee, Hong Kong
In Canada, provincial governments are responsible for COVID-19 epidemic surveillance. They maintain and disseminate the counts of cases, deaths, recoveries and hospitalizations related to the disease, which are used to trace the evolution of the pandemic nationwide. Information on the demographic characteristics of patients infected with COVID-19 is also gathered but varies across provinces due to the lack of national guidelines for data collection. In this paper, we exploit all available data sources at the provincial and national level, and we provide the first comprehensive assessment of the demographic profile of COVID-19 cases, fatalities, hospitalizations and recoveries at the sub-national level in Canada.
We estimate the impact of mask mandates and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on COVID-19 case growth in Canada, including regulations on businesses and gatherings, school closures, travel and self-isolation, and long-term care homes. We partially account for behavioral responses using Google mobility data. Our identification approach exploits variation in the timing of indoor face mask mandates staggered over two months in the 34 public health regions in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. We find that, in the first few weeks after implementation, mask mandates are associated with a reduction of 25 percent in the weekly number of new COVID-19 cases. Additional analysis with province-level data provides corroborating evidence. Counterfactual policy simulations suggest that mandating indoor masks nationwide in early July could have reduced the weekly number of new cases in Canada by 25 to 40 percent in mid-August, which translates into 700 to 1,100 fewer cases per week.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
We estimate the impact of mask mandates and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on COVID-19 case growth in Canada, including regulations on businesses and gatherings, school closures, travel and self-isolation, and long-term care homes. We partially account for behavioral responses using Google mobility data. Our identification approach exploits variation in the timing of indoor face mask mandates staggered over two months in the 34 public health regions in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. We find that, in the first few weeks after implementation, mask mandates are associated with a reduction of 25 percent in the weekly number of new COVID-19 cases. Additional analysis with province-level data provides corroborating evidence. Counterfactual policy simulations suggest that mandating indoor masks nationwide in early July could have reduced the weekly number of new cases in Canada by 25 to 40 percent in mid-August, which translates into 700 to 1,100 fewer cases per week.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER From Gabrielle Hamilton, bestselling author of Blood, Bones & Butter, comes her eagerly anticipated cookbook debut filled with signature recipes from her celebrated New York City restaurant Prune. NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY PUBLISHERS WEEKLY NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE SEASON BY Time • O: The Oprah Magazine • Bon Appétit • Eater A self-trained cook turned James Beard Award–winning chef, Gabrielle Hamilton opened Prune on New York’s Lower East Side fifteen years ago to great acclaim and lines down the block, both of which continue today. A deeply personal and gracious restaurant, in both menu and philosophy, Prune uses the elements of home cooking and elevates them in unexpected ways. The result is delicious food that satisfies on many levels. Highly original in concept, execution, look, and feel, the Prune cookbook is an inspired replica of the restaurant’s kitchen binders. It is written to Gabrielle’s cooks in her distinctive voice, with as much instruction, encouragement, information, and scolding as you would find if you actually came to work at Prune as a line cook. The recipes have been tried, tasted, and tested dozens if not hundreds of times. Intended for the home cook as well as the kitchen professional, the instructions offer a range of signals for cooks—a head’s up on when you have gone too far, things to watch out for that could trip you up, suggestions on how to traverse certain uncomfortable parts of the journey to ultimately help get you to the final destination, an amazing dish. Complete with more than with more than 250 recipes and 250 color photographs, home cooks will find Prune’s most requested recipes—Grilled Head-on Shrimp with Anchovy Butter, Bread Heels and Pan Drippings Salad, Tongue and Octopus with Salsa Verde and Mimosa’d Egg, Roasted Capon on Garlic Crouton, Prune’s famous Bloody Mary (and all 10 variations). Plus, among other items, a chapter entitled “Garbage”—smart ways to repurpose foods that might have hit the garbage or stockpot in other restaurant kitchens but are turned into appetizing bites and notions at Prune. Featured here are the recipes, approach, philosophy, evolution, and nuances that make them distinctively Prune’s. Unconventional and honest, in both tone and content, this book is a welcome expression of the cookbook as we know it. Praise for Prune “Fresh, fascinating . . . entirely pleasurable . . . Since 1999, when the chef Gabrielle Hamilton put Triscuits and canned sardines on the first menu of her East Village bistro, Prune, she has nonchalantly broken countless rules of the food world. The rule that a successful restaurant must breed an empire. The rule that chefs who happen to be women should unconditionally support one another. The rule that great chefs don’t make great writers (with her memoir, Blood, Bones & Butter). And now, the rule that restaurant food has to be simplified and prettied up for home cooks in order to produce a useful, irresistible cookbook. . . . [Prune] is the closest thing to the bulging loose-leaf binder, stuck in a corner of almost every restaurant kitchen, ever to be printed and bound between cloth covers. (These happen to be a beautiful deep, dark magenta.)”—The New York Times “One of the most brilliantly minimalist cookbooks in recent memory . . . at once conveys the thrill of restaurant cooking and the wisdom of the author, while making for a charged reading experience.”—Publishers Weekly (starred review)
This open access book discusses the socio-political context of the COVID-19 crisis and questions the management of the pandemic emergency with special reference to how this affected the governance of migration and asylum. The book offers critical insights on the impact of the pandemic on migrant workers in different world regions including North America, Europe and Asia. The book addresses several categories of migrants including medical staff, farm labourers, construction workers, care and domestic workers and international students. It looks at border closures for non-citizens, disruption for temporary migrants as well as at special arrangements made for essential (migrant) workers such as doctors or nurses as well as farmworkers, ‘shipped’ to destination with special flights to make sure emergency wards are staffed, and harvests are picked up and the food processing chain continues to function. The book illustrates how the pandemic forces us to rethink notions like membership, citizenship, belonging, but also solidarity, human rights, community, essential services or ‘essential’ workers alongside an intersectional perspective including ethnicity, gender and race.
Objectives: Mathematical modelling played an important role in the public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The diverse epidemic trajectories and modelling approaches adopted by Canadian provinces provide a unique opportunity to understand factors that shaped modelling strategies. This study aims to summarize and analyze provincial COVID-19 modelling efforts across Canada.Methods: We identified the main modelling teams with government mandates to model SARS- COV-2 in each province through referrals and membership in Canadian modelling networks. We included dynamic models used actively before December 2021. Information on models, data sources, and knowledge translation process were collected using standardized instruments. Results: We obtained information on models from 6 provinces. For provinces with sustained community transmission, modelling focused on projecting epidemic indicators, healthcare demands, and evaluating impacts of proposed interventions. In provinces able to mitigate community transmission, models emphasized quantifying case importation risks. Most models were compartmental and deterministic, with horizons for projections of a few weeks. Models were continuously updated or replaced by new ones entirely, adapting to the changing local epidemics and requests from public health. Surveillance datasets for cases and hospitalizations, as well as serological studies were the main data sources for model calibration. Knowledge translation structure with decision-makers differed markedly between provinces.Conclusion: Provincial modelling efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic were tailored to local contexts: chosen strategy (suppression/mitigation), epidemiological trajectories, and available resources. Strengthening of Canadian modelling capacity, developing and sustaining collaborations between modellers and governments, and earlier access to linked and timely surveillance data could help improve pandemic preparedness.