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The Korean authorities having taken decisive and proactive fiscal measures to help stem the fallout from the current global economic and financial crisis, with the size of the fiscal stimulus well-above the average response of other G20 economies. In this context, a key question is how effective fiscal policy is as a stabilization tool, especially considering the high openness of Korea's economy. Results based on a macroeconomic model calibrated for Korea provide a strong case for using counter-cyclical fiscal policy, especially if measures appropriately focus on spending with a direct demand impact such as investment and targeted transfers. It also demonstrates the importance a complementary monetary response and the benefits to an open economy such as Korea's of global coordination of fiscal stimulus.
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
The effects of fiscal policy measures, both taxes and public spending, adopted by developing countries in response to the 2009 global crisis are still uncertain. This book discusses them using an analytical framework that allows for distilling possible implications on growth and social welfare.
The Republic of Korea today is a highly industrialized, global leader in innovation and technology. It is the 10th largest economy in the world and has a per capita income approaching the average of OECD countries. In the 1950s, however, it was one of the world’s poorest countries, with decidedly bleak prospects. Its transformation has made Korea a well-known case study of successful development. Innovative Korea: Leveraging Innovation and Technology for Development summarizes the sources of Korea’s remarkable growth and the policies and institutional reforms that made it possible. The report focuses on Korea’s successful transition from a middle-income to a high-income economy. Korea escaped from the “middle-income trap†? by fundamentally transforming its growth paradigm to a more private-sector-led model emphasizing market competition, innovation, and technology. Compared to the previous emphasis on large fi rms and industries, the government became more focused on promoting small and medium enterprises and technology entrepreneurs. Exports expanded significantly through greater integration in global value chains. Already-high levels of human capital development were complemented by an expanded social safety net and a more integrated approach to education and training. Korea succeeded by focusing on the foundations of long-run growth, building global capabilities in innovation and technology, and adapting and evolving its growth paradigm to promote new sources of growth. Innovative Korea, jointly prepared by the World Bank and the Korea Development Institute, provides useful insights on Korea’s development story and practical lessons for public policy making.
The Asian model of export-led growth served it well in the post-war period, but prolonged sluggish growth of the developed economies following the global financial crisis, together with growing inequality and rising environmental problems, point to the need for a new growth model. The purpose of this book is to describe the challenges facing Asian economies in the post-global financial crisis environment and to identify structural issues and policies that can help guide Asian policymakers to expand the growth potential of domestic and regional demand in coming years, and thereby create a basis for balanced, sustainable, and inclusive long-term growth. These issues and policies span a variety of dimensions, including macroeconomic policy (monetary, fiscal, and foreign currency management), real sector issues (trade and industrial structure), infrastructure development, labor market and social policy, financial sector reform and regulation, and regional cooperation and architecture. Key recommendations to achieve these goals include measures to: deepen social protection to support social resilience; increase infrastructure investment to create a “seamless Asia”; enhance productivity in the services sector; establish a region-wide free trade agreement to encourage intraregional trade in goods and services and investment through economies of scale and dynamic efficiency of a larger market; promote a shift to a low-carbon society and support green growth; and deepen and integrate financial markets to facilitate the recycling of Asia’s high savings for investment within the region.
Lessons in Sustainable Development from Japan and South Korea provides a concise overview of sustainable development in Japan and South Korea. Hsu, Naoi, and Zhang focus on environment, energy, health, technology, biodiversity, production, governance, well-being, livelihood, regulation, property rights, and minerals as indicators of sustainable development. Japan has greatly improved its environment since the industrialization process ended in the 1970s. The nation also has excellent health care and transportation systems. However, Japan continues to struggle with gender inequality and traffic congestion. Poverty and inequality have remained challenges since the 1990s. Similarly, South Korea is continuing to improve its environment, as well as its health care system, but struggles with gender inequality, poverty, and inequality. The countries can benefit from better social policies, as well as from a partnership in improving energy self-sufficiency, including enhancement of renewable energy technologies.
This paper surveys fiscal policy in developing countries from the point of view of long-run growth. The first section reviews existing methodologies to estimate the effects of fiscal policy shocks and of systematic fiscal policy, with time series or with cross-sectional methods, and their applicability to developing countries. The second section surveys optimal fiscal policy in developing countries, by considering the role of the intertemporal government budget, and sustainability and solvency. It also reviews the fuzzy debate on "fiscal space" and "macroeconomic space" - and the usefulness (or lack thereof) of these terms for policy analysis. The third section asks what theory tells us about the optimal cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing countries. It shows that it very much depends on the assumptions about the interactions between credit market imperfections at the individual, firms, or government level, and on the supply of external funds to the country. Different sets of assumptions lead to different implications about optimal cyclical behavior. The available evidence on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy, and possible reasons for the observed prevalence of a procyclical behavior in developing countries, is also reviewed. If one agrees that fiscal policy is indeed less countercyclical than we think is optimal, the issue is how to correct the problem. One obvious question is why government do not self-insure, i.e. why they do not accumulate assets in upturns and decumulate them in downturns. This leads to the analysis of fiscal rules and stabilization funds, in the fourth section. The last section concludes with what the author considers important research and policy questions in each part.
This book is an authoritative account of the economic and political roots of the 2008 financial crisis. It examines why it was triggered in the United States, why it morphed into the Great Recession, and why the contagion spread with such ferocity around the globe. It also examines how and why economies - including the Eurozone, Russia, China, India, East Asia, and the Middle East - have been impacted and explores their response to the unprecedented challenges of the crisis and the effectiveness of their policy measures. Global Financial Contagion specifically looks at how the Obama administration's policy missteps have contributed to America's huge debt and slow recovery, why the Eurozone's response to its existential crisis has become a never-ending saga, and why the G-20's efforts to create a new international financial architecture may fall short. This book will long be regarded as the standard account of the crisis and its aftermath.
Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.