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Cost estimating relationships based on the observed (reported) cost and weight (full load displacement) of U.S. Navy ships are derived for the purpose of applying these cost estimating relationships to ships in the fleets of both the U.S. and USSR. This application results in broad, general comparisons that, in the aggregate, provide useful trend comparisons. These cost estimating relationships produce varying results on a class basis, but within each group or category of ships the class overestimates tend to be offset by class underestimates to yield a relatively small category error. This paper updates major portions of IDA Paper P-1530, Simple Relationships for Estimating Procurement Cost of U.S. Navy Ship Categories, dated March 1982.
A common first step in estimating costs of naval ship categories is to use a linear relationship based on ship displacement. Such estimates represent rough initial approximations. This process can be used, however, with better accuracy to estimate the cost of procurement of aggregations of naval ships and classes. Cost estimating relationships (CERs) are developed in this paper for such applications.
With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost model which can be used to determine the annual O&S costs of U.S. Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships based on known (or assumed) physical characteristics and manpower expectations. Source data for the cost model is obtained from the Navy Visibility and Management of O&S Costs (VAMOSC) database, a historical cost database maintained by the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA). Through standard regression and data analysis techniques, cost estimating relationships are developed for three major cost drivers: ship light displacement, ship overall length, and ship manpower. The formulated parametric cost model is a top-level and fairly reliable representation of average annual O&S cost, and it can be used by the DOD cost community to perform component cost analyses or independent cost estimates.
This is an analysis of existing feedback in the Fleet Modernization Program (FMP) planning and design process using the FFG-7 class of ships as a case study. This analysis attempts to relate the engineering drawing revision rate (inverse measure of drawing quality) and the number of ships affected by those drawing revisions (measure of availability concurrence) to the cost growth attributable to the FMP portion of U.S. Navy ship availabilities. Due to the lack of actual cost data, budget estimates were used as a surrogate and unfortunately firm relationships could not be established. However, the methodology developed has potential for application to any large ship class which may experience numerous concurrent availabilities, as actual cost data become available. It is meant to be a tool for the engineering design agent to assess the financial impact of the quality of engineering design products on the installing activities and to assess the potential value of policy changes which improve the quality of those products. Keywords: Data bases, Theses, Regression statistics. (KR).
This is an analysis of existing feedback in the Fleet Modernization Program (FMP) planning and design process using the FFG-7 class of ships as a case study. This analysis attempts to relate the engineering drawing revision rate (inverse measure of drawing quality) and the number of ships affected by those drawing revisions (measure of availability concurrence) to the cost growth attributable to the FMP portion of U.S. Navy ship availabilities. Due to the lack of actual cost data, budget estimates were used as a surrogate and unfortunately firm relationships could not be established. However, the methodology developed has potential for application to any large ship class which may experience numerous concurrent availabilities, as actual cost data become available. It is meant to be a tool for the engineering design agent to assess the financial impact of the quality of engineering design products on the installing activities and to assess the potential value of policy changes which improve the quality of those products. Keywords: Data bases, Theses, Regression statistics. (KR).
In light of recent military budget cuts, there has been a recent focus on determining methods to reduce the cost of Navy ships. A RAND National Defense Research Institute study showed many sources of cost escalation for Navy ships. Among them included characteristic complexity of modem Naval ships, which contributed to half of customer driven factors. This paper focuses on improving the current parametric cost estimating method used as referenced in NAVSEA's Cost Estimating Handbook. Currently, weight is used as the most common variable for determining cost in the parametric method because it's a consistent physical property and most readily available. Optimizing ship design based on weight may increase density and complexity because ship size is minimized. This paper will introduce electric power density and outfit density as additional variables to the parametric cost estimating equation and will show how this can improve the early stage cost estimating relationships of Navy ships.
The study addresses the problem of estimating the development, procurement, and installation costs of surface ship electronic warfare equipment of the future. The Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) were developed using the following factors: year of development, weight, volume, sensitivity, power output, gain, complexity and dummy variables for active equipment, equipment designed for large ships and one for those designed for small ships. Cost estimates are made for three systems presently under development by Raytheon Company and Hughes Aircraft Company under a design-to-price program.
When attempting to predict the acquisition costs of U.S. Navy surface ships, current models cannot produce a repeatable answer when the details of the acquisition program are not well defined. This thesis formulates a parametric model that predicts the average procurement cost of a conventional U.S. Navy surface ship based upon known (or assumed) physical and performance characteristics. The source data for the cost model is obtained from U.S. Weapons Systems Costs, a tabulation of annual procurement costs for major system programs, published by Data Search Associates. Standard regression techniques return cost estimating relationships able to predict average procurement cost from ship light displacement, ship overall length, ship propulsion shaft horsepower or number of propulsion engines. The formulated parametric cost model is approximate and appropriate only for rough order of magnitude studies, but can be used by the DoD cost community to produce justifiable estimates when other models do not have sufficient information to generate an answer.
This study provides parametric O&S cost models for future US Navy aircraft acquisition programs based on physical and performance parameters. The proposed parametric cost models provide decision makers with a tool for developing rough-order-of-magnitude annual O&S cost estimates for future US Navy aircraft acquisition programs. The historic aircraft cost data was provided by the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA) in a spreadsheet format and the data were extracted from the Navy Visibility and Maintenance of Operating and Support Cost (VAMOSC) data warehouse. After validating the assumption that the average annual O&S cost for any aircraft type/model/series is constant from year to year, cost estimating relationships are developed. The first model developed is based on multivariate regression. In this case, forward stepwise regression was used to find the model with the best fit. Since the multivariate regression model turns out to be impractical, having more than 30 variables in the equation, a tree-based model is presented as an alternative. Additionally, single variable cost estimating relationships are formulated based on the physical and performance parameters length, weight, and thrust.