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The concept of dependence permeates the Earth and its inhabitants in a most profound manner. Examples of interdependent meteorological phenomena in nature and interdependence in the medical, social, and political aspects of our existence, not to mention the economic structures, are too numerous to be cited individually. Moreover, the dependence is obviously not deterministic but of a stochastic nature. However, it seems that none of the departments of statistics, engineering, economics and mathematics in the academic institutions throughout the world offer courses dealing with dependence concepts and measures.This book can thus be viewed as an attempt to remedy the situation, and it has been written for a graduate course or a seminar on correlation and dependence concepts and measures. A modest background in mathematical statistics and probability and integral calculus is required. The book is not a full-scale expedition up another statistical Alp. Rather, it is a tour over a somewhat neglected but important terrain. The chapter on correlation is written for a layman.
The concept of dependence permeates the Earth and its inhabitants in a most profound manner. Examples of interdependent meteorological phenomena in nature and interdependence in the medical, social, and political aspects of our existence, not to mention the economic structures, are too numerous to be cited individually. Moreover, the dependence is obviously not deterministic but of a stochastic nature. However, it seems that none of the departments of statistics, engineering, economics and mathematics in the academic institutions throughout the world offer courses dealing with dependence concepts and measures.This book can thus be viewed as an attempt to remedy the situation, and it has been written for a graduate course or a seminar on correlation and dependence concepts and measures. A modest background in mathematical statistics and probability and integral calculus is required. The book is not a full-scale expedition up another statistical Alp. Rather, it is a tour over a somewhat neglected but important terrain. The chapter on correlation is written for a layman.
The use of derivative products in risk management has spread from commodities, stocks and fixed income items, to such virtual commodities as energy, weather and bandwidth. All this can give rise to so-called volatility and there has been a consequent development in formal risk management techniques to cover all types of risk: market, credit, liquidity, etc. One of these techniques, Value at Risk, was developed specifically to help manage market risk over short periods. Its success led, somewhat controversially, to its take up and extension to credit risk over longer time-scales. This extension, ultimately not successful, led to the collapse of a number of institutions. The present book, which was originally published in 2002, by some of the leading figures in risk management, examines the complex issues that concern the stability of the global financial system by presenting a mix of theory and practice.
1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generation algorithm and number of equivalence classes / H. Joe, R.M. Cooke and D. Kurowicka -- 11. Optimal truncation of vines / D. Kurowicka -- 12. Bayesian inference for D-vines : Estimation and model selection / C. Czado and A. Min -- 13. Analysis of Australian electricity loads using joint Bayesian inference of D-vines with autoregressive margins / C. Czado, F. Gartner and A. Min -- 14. Non-parametric Bayesian belief nets versus vines / A. Hanea -- 15. Modeling dependence between financial returns using pair-copula constructions / K. Aas and D. Berg -- 16. Dynamic D-vine model / A. Heinen and A. Valdesogo -- 17. Summary and future directions / D. Kurowicka
This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
Avoid downturn vulnerability by managing correlation dependency Asymmetric Dependence in Finance examines the risks and benefits of asset correlation, and provides effective strategies for more profitable portfolio management. Beginning with a thorough explanation of the extent and nature of asymmetric dependence in the financial markets, this book delves into the practical measures fund managers and investors can implement to boost fund performance. From managing asymmetric dependence using Copulas, to mitigating asymmetric dependence risk in real estate, credit and CTA markets, the discussion presents a coherent survey of the state-of-the-art tools available for measuring and managing this difficult but critical issue. Many funds suffered significant losses during recent downturns, despite having a seemingly well-diversified portfolio. Empirical evidence shows that the relation between assets is much richer than previously thought, and correlation between returns is dependent on the state of the market; this book explains this asymmetric dependence and provides authoritative guidance on mitigating the risks. Examine an options-based approach to limiting your portfolio's downside risk Manage asymmetric dependence in larger portfolios and alternate asset classes Get up to speed on alternative portfolio performance management methods Improve fund performance by applying appropriate models and quantitative techniques Correlations between assets increase markedly during market downturns, leading to diversification failure at the very moment it is needed most. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2006 hedge-fund crisis provide vivid examples, and many investors still bear the scars of heavy losses from their well-managed, well-diversified portfolios. Asymmetric Dependence in Finance shows you what went wrong, and how it can be corrected and managed before the next big threat using the latest methods and models from leading research in quantitative finance.
Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
The concept of dependence permeates the Earth and its inhabitants in a most profound manner. Examples of interdependent meteorological phenomena in nature and interdependence in the medical, social, and political aspects of our existence, not to mention the economic structures, are too numerous to be cited individually. Moreover, the dependence is obviously not deterministic but of a stochastic nature. However, it seems that none of the departments of statistics, engineering, economics and mathematics in the academic institutions throughout the world offer courses dealing with dependence concepts and measures . This book can thus be viewed as an attempt to remedy the situation, and it has been written for a graduate course or a seminar on correlation and dependence concepts and measures . A modest background in mathematical statistics and probability and integral calculus is required. The book is not a full-scale expedition up another statistical Alp. Rather, it is a tour over a somewhat neglected but important terrain. The chapter on correlation is written for a layman. Contents: Notations and Definitions; Correlation and Dependence: An Introspection; Concepts of Dependence and Stochastic Ordering; Copulas; FarlieOCoGumbelOCoMorgenstern Models of Dependence; Global Versus Local Dependence between Random Variables. Readership: Researchers and practitioners in the field of applied probability, statistics, biostatistics, industrial engineering and reliability."
Along with a review of general developments relating to bivariate distributions, this volume also covers copulas, a subject which has grown immensely in recent years. In addition, it examines conditionally specified distributions and skewed distributions.
This is a succinct guide to the application and modelling of dependence models or copulas in the financial markets. First applied to credit risk modelling, copulas are now widely used across a range of derivatives transactions, asset pricing techniques and risk models and are a core part of the financial engineer's toolkit.