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An IMF paper reviewing the policy responses of Indonesia, Korea and Thailand to the 1997 Asian crisis, comparing the actions of these three countries with those of Malaysia and the Philippines. Although all judgements are still tentative, important lessons can be learned from the experiences of the last two years.
Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.
This paper reviews macroeconomic developments during the first year of the crisis in east Asia and draws some preliminary policy lessons. The crisis is rooted in the interaction of large capital inflows and weak private and public sector governance. At the same time, macroeconomic adjustment in these countries has resulted in some surprising outcomes, including severe economic contractions, low inflation, and rapid external adjustment. The lessons for crisis resolution include the importance of tight monetary policy early on for exchange rate stabilization, flexible fiscal policy, and comprehensive structural reform. Crises are avoided by prudent macroeconomic policies, diligent bank supervision, transparent data dissemination, strong governance, and forward-looking policymaking, even in good times.
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
This exciting sequel to East Asia in Crisis offers a completely up-to-date assessment of the progress of East Asian recovery and provides a detailed review of the experience of the region's economies.
East Asia: The Road to Recovery carefully analyzes the events that led to the current economic crisis in East Asia, the tremendous effects the crisis has had on the Asian economies, and prospects for the region's future. Chapters in the book cover the region's trade and competitiveness; the financial sector at the center of the crisis; the corporate sector's financial performance and governance; the social crisis resulting from the financial crash; protection of the environment as well as the people; and policies for sustainable recovery. This book not only discusses how this catastrophe could ever have taken place, but more importantly, what can be done to ensure that it won't happen again.
The new second edition of Debt Restructuring provides detailed legal analysis of international corporate, banking, and sovereign debt restructuring, from the perspective of both creditors and debtors. It sets out practical guidance to help practitioners, policy-makers and academics to understand current developments in debt restructuring, and provides solutions for creditors holding distressed debt and debtor options in a distressed scenario. The Corporate Debt section includes a number of very significant changes such as the UK Supreme Court decision in Eurosail and the disapproval of the "point of no return" test for balance sheet insolvency or the endorsement of the Cheyne Finance decision on cashflow. The changes in treatment of schemes of arrangement since with the decision in Rodenstock are reflected as are the Recast European Insolvency Regulation (EIR) and the Supreme Court decision in Rubin. In the US chapter the new edition considers the limitations on bankruptcy court jurisdiction in Stern v. Marshall and, in the RadLax case, the right of secured creditors to credit bid in a sale of their collateral under a chapter 11 plan. Other significant case law includes consideration of the various safe harbour provisions of the Bankruptcy Code relating to derivative and other financial instruments and cases concerning the effect of foreign court orders in the US. In the Bank Resolution section, the UK part also has been substantially amended to reflect the new system of macro and micro prudential oversight with the establishment of the PRA, FCA, FPC, and the FSCS. Additionally it reflects changes introduced by the Financial Services Act 2012 and by the Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013. Additionally there is a new chapter in this part on the EU framework on the resolution of banks and financial institutions which analyses and explains initiatives such as SRM, and the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive. The US chapter reflects changes in Fannie and Freddie conservatorships, the FDIC's SPE strategy under Dodd-Frank, the proposed GLAC requirements, and resolution plan filings. In the Sovereign Debt section, there is detailed coverage of the New York litigation on the pari passu litigation and its interpretation in sovereign debt contracts. Also, this section of the book analyses the adoption of single-limb CACs in the aftermath of the Greek restructuring as well as the proposal for creditor engagement clauses. It also provides full analysis of the EU architecture implemented to prevent a sovereign debt crisis, including the creation of new stabilization mechanisms (EFSF and ESM), and the challenges presented to the single-currency area.