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The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.
The essential resource for navigating the growing direct loan market Private Debt: Opportunities in Corporate Direct Lending provides investors with a single, comprehensive resource for understanding this asset class amidst an environment of tremendous growth. Traditionally a niche asset class pre-crisis, corporate direct lending has become an increasingly important allocation for institutional investors—assets managed by Business Development Company structures, which represent 25% of the asset class, have experienced over 600% growth since 2008 to become a $91 billion market. Middle market direct lending has traditionally been relegated to commercial banks, but onerous Dodd-Frank regulation has opened the opportunity for private asset managers to replace banks as corporate lenders; as direct loans have thus far escaped the low rates that decimate yield, this asset class has become an increasingly attractive option for institutional and retail investors. This book dissects direct loans as a class, providing the critical background information needed in order to work effectively with these assets. Understand direct lending as an asset class, and the different types of loans available Examine the opportunities, potential risks, and historical yield Delve into various loan investment vehicles, including the Business Development Company structure Learn how to structure a direct loan portfolio, and where it fits within your total portfolio The rapid rise of direct lending left a knowledge gap surrounding these nontraditional assets, leaving many investors ill-equipped to take full advantage of ever-increasing growth. This book provides a uniquely comprehensive guide to corporate direct lending, acting as both crash course and desk reference to facilitate smart investment decision making.
An authoritative guide to the new economics of our crisis-filled century. Published in collaboration with the Institute for New Economic Thinking. The 2008 financial crisis was a seismic event that laid bare how financial institutions’ instabilities can have devastating effects on societies and economies. COVID-19 brought similar financial devastation at the beginning of 2020 and once more massive interventions by central banks were needed to heed off the collapse of the financial system. All of which begs the question: why is our financial system so fragile and vulnerable that it needs government support so often? For a generation of economists who have risen to prominence since 2008, these events have defined not only how they view financial instability, but financial markets more broadly. Leveraged brings together these voices to take stock of what we have learned about the costs and causes of financial fragility and to offer a new canonical framework for understanding it. Their message: the origins of financial instability in modern economies run deeper than the technical debates around banking regulation, countercyclical capital buffers, or living wills for financial institutions. Leveraged offers a fundamentally new picture of how financial institutions and societies coexist, for better or worse. The essays here mark a new starting point for research in financial economics. As we muddle through the effects of a second financial crisis in this young century, Leveraged provides a road map and a research agenda for the future.
This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.
The law of borrowings embraces many different areas of law: contract, company law, trusts, security, insolvency, tax, financial services and regulation. Corporate Borrowing: Law and Practice brings together all of these elements in a practical and concise single volume. It defines the most effective ways of raising debt finance- from bank loan agreements to MTN programmes- and examines the specific legal problems of security and prospectus requirements under the Prospectus Directive. It examines the issues relating to the various types of trustees, attracting lenders and the statutory provisions regarding invitational material, and the tax implications of borrowings by companies.
Using data on syndicated loan issuances by emerging market firms, we find that an increase in the external debt of emerging market governments significantly raises the borrowing costs of the domestic corporate sector. This finding suggests that a higher level of public external debt "crowds out" foreign credit to the private sector by increasing the risk of a sovereign debt crisis and thereby making exposure to corporate sector debt less desirable. The effect is stronger in countries with weak creditor rights. The results highlight the potential costs of fiscal expansions for the domestic corporate sector even when debt is issued in foreign markets.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.