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Throughout the history of economics, a variety of analytical tools have been borrowed from the so-called exact sciences. As Schoe?er (1955) puts it: “They have taken their mathematics and their ded- tive techniques from physics, their statistics from genetics and agr- omy, their systems of classi?cation from taxonomy and chemistry, their model-construction techniques from astronomy and mechanics, and their methods of analysis of the consequences of actions from en- neering”. The possibility of similarities of structure in mathematical models of economic and physical systems has been an important f- tor in the development of neoclassical theory. To treat the state of an economy as an equilibrium, analogous to the equilibrium of a mech- ical system has been a key concept in economics ever since it became a mathematically formalized science. Adopting a Newtonian paradigm neoclassical economics often is based on three fundamental concepts. Firstly, the representative agent who is a scale model of the whole society with extraordinary capacities, particularly concerning her - pability of information processing and computation. Of course, this is a problematic reduction as agents are both heterogeneous and bou- edly rational and limited in their cognitive capabilities. Secondly, it often con?ned itself to study systems in a state of equilibrium. But this concept is not adequate to describe and to support phenomena in perpetual motion.
In this book I develop a theory of complexity for economics and manage ment sciences. This book is addressed to the mathematically or analytically oriented economist, psychologist or management scientist. It could also be of interest to engineers, computer scientists, biologists, physicists and ecologists who have a constant desire to go beyond the bounds of their respective disciplines. The unifying theme is: we live in a complex world, but how can we cope with complexity? If the book has made the reader curious, and if he looks at modelling, problem recognition and problem solving within his field of competence in a more "complex" way, it will have achieved its goal. The starting point is the recognition that complexity is a well-defined concept in mathematics (e.g. in topological dynamics), computer science, information theory and artificial intelligence. But it is a rather diffuse concept in other fields, sometimes it has only descriptive value or even worse, it is only used in a colloquial sense. The systematic investigation of complexity phenomena has reached a mature status within computer science. Indices of computer size, capacity and performance root ultimately in John von Neumann's paradigmatic model of a machine, though other 1 roots point to McCulloch and Pitts, not to forget Alan Turing. Offsprings of this development include: -complexity of formal systems and recursiveness; -cellular automata and the theory of self-reproducing machines; -theory of program or computational complexity; -theory of sequential machines; -problem solving, cognitive science, pattern recognition and decision processes.
Throughout the history of economics, a variety of analytical tools have been borrowed from the so-called exact sciences. As Schoe?er (1955) puts it: “They have taken their mathematics and their ded- tive techniques from physics, their statistics from genetics and agr- omy, their systems of classi?cation from taxonomy and chemistry, their model-construction techniques from astronomy and mechanics, and their methods of analysis of the consequences of actions from en- neering”. The possibility of similarities of structure in mathematical models of economic and physical systems has been an important f- tor in the development of neoclassical theory. To treat the state of an economy as an equilibrium, analogous to the equilibrium of a mech- ical system has been a key concept in economics ever since it became a mathematically formalized science. Adopting a Newtonian paradigm neoclassical economics often is based on three fundamental concepts. Firstly, the representative agent who is a scale model of the whole society with extraordinary capacities, particularly concerning her - pability of information processing and computation. Of course, this is a problematic reduction as agents are both heterogeneous and bou- edly rational and limited in their cognitive capabilities. Secondly, it often con?ned itself to study systems in a state of equilibrium. But this concept is not adequate to describe and to support phenomena in perpetual motion.
Historical chapters show how understanding the workings of complex systems allowed statesmen to devise the Concert of Europe and how the collapse of the Concert in the Crimean War was triggered by the tsar's failure to comprehend the indirect impact his strategies would have on British public opinion. Another chapter highlights the feedback processes between domestic politics and the international monetary system that led to the rise and fall of the gold standard and to the creation of the European monetary system. The diplomacy of the Moroccan crisis of 1905 is used to show that conventional wisdom places unwarranted weight on a state's reputation for standing firm in the interconnected international system. The discussions also explore the systemic causes of World War II: Contributors examine how the international financial system unwittingly helped destroy Weimar democracy and offer a challenging reinterpretation of the workings of the balance of power in the 1930s.
This book illustrates how the treatment of complexity in analytical frameworks shapes economic studies. It explores the ways economists make sense of our economic environment and where their differences in interpretations of economic issues and policy proposals are rooted. Schwardt examines developments in economies and the role of the public sector over the last few centuries. Taking a theoretical approach and addressing different analytical frameworks, a basic distinction is introduced between top-down approaches, where assumptions about the economic environment are formulated at the outset; and bottom-up approaches, where an economic environment emerges from the interactions of the individual agents. By recognising the validity of alternate perspectives on economic issues, Schwardt proposes an improved foundation for economics research and policy.
Contents 11. 2. 2. Four Main Areas of Dispute 247 11. 2. 3. Summary . . . 248 11. 3. Making Sense of the Issues . . 248 11. 3. 1. Introduction . . . . 248 11. 3. 2. The Scientific Approach 248 11. 3. 3. Science and Matters of Society . 249 11. 3. 4. Summary . 251 11. 4. Tying It All Together . . . . 251 11. 4. 1. Introduction . . . . 251 11. 4. 2. A Unifying Framework 251 11. 4. 3. Critical Systems Thinking 253 11. 4. 4. Summary 254 11. 5. Conclusion 254 Questions . . . 255 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 INDEX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267 Chapter One SYSTEMS Origin and Evolution, Terms and Concepts 1. 1. INTRODUCTION We start this book with Theme A (see Figure P. I in the Preface), which aims to develop an essential and fundamental understanding of systems science. So, what is systems science? When asked to explain what systems science is all about, many systems scientists are confronted with a rather daunting task. The discipline tends to be presented and understood in a fragmented way and very few people hold an overview understanding of the subject matter, while also having sufficient in-depth competence in many and broad-ranging subject areas where the ideas are used. Indeed, it was precisely this difficulty that identified the need for a comprehensive well-documented account such as is presented here in Dealing with Complexity.
Recognizing that complexity calls for innovative, conceptual, and methodological solutions, Dealing with Complexity in Development Evaluation by Michael Bamberger, Jos Vaessen, and Estelle Raimondo offers practical guidance to policymakers, managers, and evaluation practitioners on how to design and implement complexity-responsive evaluations that can be undertaken in the real world of time, budget, data, and political constraints. Introductory chapters present comprehensive, non-technical overviews of the most common evaluation tools and methodologies, and additional content addresses more cutting-edge material. The book also includes six case study chapters to illustrate examples of various evaluation contexts from around the world.
How ideas in complexity can be used to develop more effective public policy Complexity science—made possible by modern analytical and computational advances—is changing the way we think about social systems and social theory. Unfortunately, economists' policy models have not kept up and are stuck in either a market fundamentalist or government control narrative. While these standard narratives are useful in some cases, they are damaging in others, directing thinking away from creative, innovative policy solutions. Complexity and the Art of Public Policy outlines a new, more flexible policy narrative, which envisions society as a complex evolving system that is uncontrollable but can be influenced. David Colander and Roland Kupers describe how economists and society became locked into the current policy framework, and lay out fresh alternatives for framing policy questions. Offering original solutions to stubborn problems, the complexity narrative builds on broader philosophical traditions, such as those in the work of John Stuart Mill, to suggest initiatives that the authors call "activist laissez-faire" policies. Colander and Kupers develop innovative bottom-up solutions that, through new institutional structures such as for-benefit corporations, channel individuals’ social instincts into solving societal problems, making profits a tool for change rather than a goal. They argue that a central role for government in this complexity framework is to foster an ecostructure within which diverse forms of social entrepreneurship can emerge and blossom.
The Challenge of Sustainability: Corporate Governance in a Complicated World reviews the evolution of five types of corporate governance and their different sustainability objectives. It discusses the challenges for boards in achieving sustainability from an environmental, economic, employment, and social perspective and introduces the concept of a political tragedy of the commons if boards do what is in the best interests of their profitability only, without considering their responsibilities and unintended consequences for their stakeholders. It explains how volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity complicate making sustainable decisions. This book explores ways of helping prevent such negative outcomes. John Zinkin asserts the director’s need to reconcile volatility with vision, uncertainty with understanding, complexity with courage and commitment, and ambiguity with adaptability. To prevent a potential political tragedy of the commons, the book suggests new decision-making processes; treating employees differently; and makes the case for reforming capitalism. It is aimed at managers, board members and all those who influence them, including shareholder activists, corporate legal personnel, politicians, activists and general readers interested in applying some of these suggestions in their roles as stakeholders, managers and directors.
Education for a viable future has never been more important than in our era of climate change, fake news, self-illusions, and political upheaval. Whether humanity will have a dignified future hangs in the balance. The urgency of finding sound solutions to a number of complex problems is obvious. We can’t really allow ourselves to get it wrong, but the temptation to fall for easy, convenient answers is considerable. This book focuses on emerging insights from various fields which allow us to collectively build evidence-based and wise solutions. This requires us to clarify how to arrive at a sound understanding of reality, which belief-systems and ideologies impede this understanding, and which issues need to be addressed as a matter of urgency. We cannot solve the climate crisis or any other pressing problems besetting humanity by using mental models which are demonstrably flawed. We ignore important findings and insights in fields unfamiliar to us at our peril. Whatever our professional field, we need to self-critically reflect on the conclusions presented in this book in order to increase the quality and efficacy of our educational interventions for a better world.