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Private capital flows to developing countries have increased dramatically. This book identifies key concerns about the sustainability and volatility of these flows, and makes a number of recommendations for national macroeconomics management, including crisis prevention measures. In addition there is an innovative proposal for the orderly workout of sovereign debt
As a result of the Asian crisis, methods of coping with volatile international capital markets have received considerable attention from observers and policymakers. It has been argued that the imposition by Chile of a nonremunerated reserve requirement on external borrowing played a useful role in the smooth liberalization of its capital account by allowing Chile to deal effectively with short-term capital inflows and thus to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks, and that such measures should be adopted by other countries. In light of this, this paper reviews Chile’s experience in managing capital flows and draws lessons for policymakers.
This paper reviews the experiences of a number of European countries in coping with capital inflows. It describes the nature of the inflows, their implications for macroeconomic and financial stability, and the policy responses used to cope with them. The experiences suggest that as countries become more integrated with international financial markets, there is little room to regulate capital flows effectively. The most effective ways to deal with capital inflows would be to deepen the financial markets, strengthen financial system supervision and regulation, where needed, and improve the capacity to design and implement sound macroeconomic and financial sector policies. These actions will help increase the absorption capacity and resilience of the economies and financial systems to the risks associated with the inflows.
This timely book examines how the countries of East Asia coped with the vast pool of international capital that flowed into the region during the early 1990s. East Asia appeared to be doing well. But, as this book was in preparation in 1997, a currency crisis sent capital fleeing and catapulted the East Asian economies into turmoil. Country-specific updates describe events since July 1997, how government authorities addressed the crisis, and what lessons can be learned.
This paper reviews the experiences of a number of European countries in coping with capital inflows. It describes the nature of the inflows, their implications for macroeconomic and financial stability, and the policy responses used to cope with them. The experiences suggest that as countries become more integrated with international financial markets, there is little room to regulate capital flows effectively. The most effective ways to deal with capital inflows would be to deepen the financial markets, strengthen financial system supervision and regulation, where needed, and improve the capacity to design and implement sound macroeconomic and financial sector policies. These actions will help increase the absorption capacity and resilience of the economies and financial systems to the risks associated with the inflows
This paper examines country experiences with the use and liberalization of capital controls to develop a deeper understanding of the role of capital controls in coping with volatile capital flows, as well as the issues surrounding their liberalization. Detailed analyses of country cases aim to shed light on the motivations to limit capital flows; the role the controls may have played in coping with particular situations, including in financial crises and in limiting short-term inflows; the nature and design of the controls; and their effectivenes and potential costs. The paper also examines the link between prudential policies and capital controls and illstrates the ways in which better prudential practices and accelerated financial reforms could address the risks in cross-border capital transactions.
A comprehensive examination of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. While always episodic in nature, capital flows to emerging market economies have been especially volatile since the global financial crisis. After peaking at $680 billion in 2007, flows to emerging markets turned negative at the onset of crisis in 2008, then rebounded only to recede again during the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade in 2011. Since then, flows have continued to swing wildly, leaving emerging market policy makers wondering whether they can put in place policies during the inflow phase that will soften the blow when flows subsequently recede. This book offers the first comprehensive treatment of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. The authors, all IMF experts, explain that, in the spirit of liberalization and deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s, many emerging market governments eliminated capital inflow controls along with outflow controls. By 2012, however, capital inflow controls were again acknowledged as legitimate policy tools. Focusing on the macroeconomic and financial-stability risks associated with capital flows, the authors combine theoretical and empirical analysis to consider the interaction between monetary, exchange rate, macroprudential, and capital control policies to mitigate these risks. They examine the effectiveness of various policy tools, discuss the practical considerations and multilateral implications of their use, and provide concrete policy advice for dealing with capital inflows.
Private capital flows to Latin America have increased dramatically since 1989. This book examines the possible causes and consequences of this new and unforeseen wave of investment from the perspectives of both the borrower and the lender. The authors first analyze direct investment, securities investment (both bonds and shares), and bank lending by investors in the United States, Europe, and Japan, as well as the regulations affecting those investors. They differentiate among the scale, features, and motivations of those investors and lenders. The authors then turn to the features of capital flows, their macroeconomic impact, and policy responses in three recipient countries: Argentina, Chile, and Mexico. Those policy responses fundamentally relate to attempts to moderate the impact of capital inflows on exchange rates, to reduce the monetary impact of foreign exchange operations, and to moderate short-term capital inflows.
Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? We revisit the Lucas paradox and explore the role of capital account restrictions in shaping capital flows at various stages of economic development. We find that, when accounting for the degree of capital account openness, the prediction of the neoclassical theory is confirmed: less developed countries tend to experience net capital inflows and more developed countries tend to experience net capital outflows, conditional of various countries’ characteristics. The findings are driven by foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, and to some extent by loans to the private sector.
This book is the first major text to examine crisis and its implications for the United States. The author discusses the nature and roots of this crisis, and examines the "shrinking of America" from a position of financial and economic dominance.