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Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
This book examines Croatia's economic and political transformation over the last 30 years. It brings together the best political scientists, macroeconomists and public finance experts from Croatia to provide an in-depth analysis of the Croatian policy-making context and the impact of Europeanization upon its domestic institutional framework. The second part of the book scrutinizes the political economy context and Croatia's long-term macroeconomic under-performance, especially in comparison to other transition economies. The final part explores sectoral public policies, including cohesion policy, education, health, pensions, and local government. The book offers a unique blend of Croatia's political economy framework and public policy analysis.
RMB: Towards Internationalization takes an in-depth look at the exchange rate regime of China's currency, the RMB, including the arrangements, related policies and management, and corresponding policy recommendations. This is the first book to apply the theories of fictitious economy, complexity science and the principles of international finance to analyze the RMB exchange rate regime. For readers interested in China's economy in general and RMB internationalization in particular, this book provides an entirely new analytical framework on the history and evolution of RMB exchange regime and on its future development.
The crisis is prompting a reconsideration of capital flows and the policies that affect them. A breakdown in the domestic stability of a large country can spill over into stress in other countries and even to the global system as a whole. The activities of global institutions and markets—some regulated and some not—can bear on the riskiness of flows. Thus, national policies affecting capital flows can transmit multilaterally. This transmission has not been fully appreciated by national policymakers. Further, they may not have incentives to take full account of the cross-border effects of their policies. Looking ahead, the upward trend in the volume of capital flows can be expected to continue, making it ever more important to address the associated cross-border risks. This paper aims to draw greater attention to the multilateral aspects of policies affecting capital flows. Previous work by the Fund has focused on the policies of recipient countries, mainly emerging market economies (EMEs), and addressed the circumstances in which capital flow management measures (CFMs) would be appropriate. This paper provides a complementary assessment of regulatory and supervisory policies of advanced economies, as well as large advanced economy monetary policy. Moreover, it addresses the multilateral transmission of CFMs.
The case studies document the regulatory and supervisory dimension of episodes during the recent crisis involving capital flows that generated systemic stress. Source country regulation and supervision is the main focus, although recipient country policies also were important in some cases and are thus covered as well. Three of the case studies are motivated by systemic stress that arose from flows between advanced economies. Strong demand by foreign investors for U.S. financial products helped drive gross flows between the United States and other countries, especially Europe, and induced the U.S. financial sector to develop products that transformed their risky assets into highly-rated securities. In turn, large European banks came to depend on short-term liquidity provided from the U.S. These two-way capital flows created a complex web among markets and institutions, some regulated and some not. Against this background, case studies were prepared for European banks and U.S. money market mutual funds (MMMFs) and for German banks and U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). Another important case is that of the near failure of the American International Group (AIG), which turned out to have complex and systemically cross-border linkages with other global institutions and markets.
This paper argues that, in improving the efficient allocation of resources, financial sector development could dampen the appreciation effect of capital inflows. Using dynamic panel data techniques, the paper finds that the exchange rate appreciation effect of FDI inflows is indeed attenuated when financial and capital markets are larger and more active. The main implication of these results is that one of the main dangers associated with large capital inflows in emerging markets-the destabilization of macroeconomic management due to a sizeable appreciation of the real exchange rate-can be mitigated partly by developing a deep financial sector.
A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorptionreducing effect, as a tighter fiscal stance acts as a brake on capital flows; and (ii) an unconventional absorption-boosting effect, as a tighter fiscal stance increases investor confidence in the country. The empirical results suggest that push factors (low returns in flow-originating countries), rather than pull factors (high returns in flow-destination countries), drove most of the private capital flows to emerging Europe. And active countercyclical fiscal policy once the fiscal stance is adjusted for the automatic effects on the fiscal position of both internal and external imbalances acted as a brake on capital inflows. However, the empirical results also suggest that, even abstracting from political feasibility and fiscal policy lag considerations, countercyclical fiscal policy alone is unlikely to be an effective policy tool to put an effective brake on sudden capital flow surges.
This article reviews the European Systematic Risk Board (ESRB), its role, approach, outputs, and effects in the European Union. The ESRB is the reason for macroprudential oversight of financial systems. Macroprudential policy is used to identify and reduce financial risks and limit financial imbalances. This policy is for both upturns and downturns of economic cycles. The role of the ESRB should be further enhanced to cover the entire financial system and institutions.
From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe is a comprehensive study of the European Union financial system. It provides an overview of the issues central to securing a safer financial system for the European Union and looks at the responses to the global financial crisis, both at the macro level—the pendulum of financial integration and fragmentation—and at the micro level—the institutional reforms that are taking place to address the crisis. The emerging financial sector management infrastructure, including the proposed Single Supervisory Mechanism and other elements of a banking union for the euro area, are also discussed in detail.
The question of how India should adapt monetary policy to ongoing financial globalization has gained prominence with the recent surge in capital inflows. This paper documents the degree to which India has become financially globalized, both in absolute terms and relative to emerging and developed countries. We find that despite a relatively low degree of openness, India's domestic monetary conditions are highly influenced by global factors. We then review the experiences of countries that have adapted to financial globalization, drawing lessons for India. While we find no strong relationship between the degree of stability in monetary conditions and the broad monetary policy regime, our findings suggest that improvements in monetary operations and communication?sometimes prompted by a shift to an IT regime?have helped stabilize broader monetary conditions. In addition, the experience of countries which used non-standard instruments suggests that room to regulate capital flows effectively through capital controls diminishes as financial integration increases.