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Continuous-time econometrics is no longer an esoteric subject although most still regard it as such, so much so that it is hardly mentioned in standard textbooks on econometrics. Thanks to the work done in the last 20 years, both the theoretical and the applied side are by now well developed. Methods of estimation have been theoretically elaborated and practically implemented through computer programs. Continuous-time macroeconometric models for different countries have been constructed, estimated and used. Being myself involved in these developments, it was with great pleasure that I accepted the invitation to organize a session on continuous-time econometrics in the context of the International Symposium on Economic Modelling (jointly organized by the University of Urbino and the book series International Studies in Economic Modelling, and co-sponsored by the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche). The reaction of 'continuists' from all over the world was so enthusiastic that I was able to arrange two sessions, one on the theory and the other on the applications. The symposium was held in Urbino on 23-25 July 1990. The papers presented in Urbino have been revised in the light of the discussion at the symposium and the referees' comments. Hence, what is published here should become another standard reference in the field of continuous-time econometrics.
An introduction to economic applications of the theory of continuous-time finance that strikes a balance between mathematical rigor and economic interpretation of financial market regularities. This book introduces the economic applications of the theory of continuous-time finance, with the goal of enabling the construction of realistic models, particularly those involving incomplete markets. Indeed, most recent applications of continuous-time finance aim to capture the imperfections and dysfunctions of financial markets—characteristics that became especially apparent during the market turmoil that started in 2008. The book begins by using discrete time to illustrate the basic mechanisms and introduce such notions as completeness, redundant pricing, and no arbitrage. It develops the continuous-time analog of those mechanisms and introduces the powerful tools of stochastic calculus. Going beyond other textbooks, the book then focuses on the study of markets in which some form of incompleteness, volatility, heterogeneity, friction, or behavioral subtlety arises. After presenting solutions methods for control problems and related partial differential equations, the text examines portfolio optimization and equilibrium in incomplete markets, interest rate and fixed-income modeling, and stochastic volatility. Finally, it presents models where investors form different beliefs or suffer frictions, form habits, or have recursive utilities, studying the effects not only on optimal portfolio choices but also on equilibrium, or the price of primitive securities. The book strikes a balance between mathematical rigor and the need for economic interpretation of financial market regularities, although with an emphasis on the latter.
In recent years there has been a significant increase of interest in continuous-time Principal-Agent models, or contract theory, and their applications. Continuous-time models provide a powerful and elegant framework for solving stochastic optimization problems of finding the optimal contracts between two parties, under various assumptions on the information they have access to, and the effect they have on the underlying "profit/loss" values. This monograph surveys recent results of the theory in a systematic way, using the approach of the so-called Stochastic Maximum Principle, in models driven by Brownian Motion. Optimal contracts are characterized via a system of Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations. In a number of interesting special cases these can be solved explicitly, enabling derivation of many qualitative economic conclusions.
This monograph presents a continuous time macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom incorporating stochastic trends. It describes the model in detail to permit a rigorous mathematical analysis of its steady-state and stability properties, thus providing a valuable check on the capacity of the model to generate plausible long-run behaviour.
Continuous-Time Models in Corporate Finance synthesizes four decades of research to show how stochastic calculus can be used in corporate finance. Combining mathematical rigor with economic intuition, Santiago Moreno-Bromberg and Jean-Charles Rochet analyze corporate decisions such as dividend distribution, the issuance of securities, and capital structure and default. They pay particular attention to financial intermediaries, including banks and insurance companies. The authors begin by recalling the ways that option-pricing techniques can be employed for the pricing of corporate debt and equity. They then present the dynamic model of the trade-off between taxes and bankruptcy costs and derive implications for optimal capital structure. The core chapter introduces the workhorse liquidity-management model—where liquidity and risk management decisions are made in order to minimize the costs of external finance. This model is used to study corporate finance decisions and specific features of banks and insurance companies. The book concludes by presenting the dynamic agency model, where financial frictions stem from the lack of interest alignment between a firm's manager and its financiers. The appendix contains an overview of the main mathematical tools used throughout the book. Requiring some familiarity with stochastic calculus methods, Continuous-Time Models in Corporate Finance will be useful for students, researchers, and professionals who want to develop dynamic models of firms' financial decisions.
This is the first book dedicated to direct continuous-time model identification for 15 years. It cuts down on time spent hunting through journals by providing an overview of much recent research in an increasingly busy field. The CONTSID toolbox discussed in the final chapter gives an overview of developments and practical examples in which MATLAB® can be used for direct time-domain identification of continuous-time systems. This is a valuable reference for a broad audience.
This unique book provides an overview of continuous time modeling in the behavioral and related sciences. It argues that the use of discrete time models for processes that are in fact evolving in continuous time produces problems that make their application in practice highly questionable. One main issue is the dependence of discrete time parameter estimates on the chosen time interval, which leads to incomparability of results across different observation intervals. Continuous time modeling by means of differential equations offers a powerful approach for studying dynamic phenomena, yet the use of this approach in the behavioral and related sciences such as psychology, sociology, economics and medicine, is still rare. This is unfortunate, because in these fields often only a few discrete time (sampled) observations are available for analysis (e.g., daily, weekly, yearly, etc.). However, as emphasized by Rex Bergstrom, the pioneer of continuous-time modeling in econometrics, neither human beings nor the economy cease to exist in between observations. In 16 chapters, the book addresses a vast range of topics in continuous time modeling, from approaches that closely mimic traditional linear discrete time models to highly nonlinear state space modeling techniques. Each chapter describes the type of research questions and data that the approach is most suitable for, provides detailed statistical explanations of the models, and includes one or more applied examples. To allow readers to implement the various techniques directly, accompanying computer code is made available online. The book is intended as a reference work for students and scientists working with longitudinal data who have a Master's- or early PhD-level knowledge of statistics.
Since Charles Spearman published his seminal paper on factor analysis in 1904 and Karl Joresk ̈ og replaced the observed variables in an econometric structural equation model by latent factors in 1970, causal modelling by means of latent variables has become the standard in the social and behavioural sciences. Indeed, the central va- ables that social and behavioural theories deal with, can hardly ever be identi?ed as observed variables. Statistical modelling has to take account of measurement - rors and invalidities in the observed variables and so address the underlying latent variables. Moreover, during the past decades it has been widely agreed on that serious causal modelling should be based on longitudinal data. It is especially in the ?eld of longitudinal research and analysis, including panel research, that progress has been made in recent years. Many comprehensive panel data sets as, for example, on human development and voting behaviour have become available for analysis. The number of publications based on longitudinal data has increased immensely. Papers with causal claims based on cross-sectional data only experience rejection just for that reason.
Modeling and Simulation have become endeavors central to all disciplines of science and engineering. They are used in the analysis of physical systems where they help us gain a better understanding of the functioning of our physical world. They are also important to the design of new engineering systems where they enable us to predict the behavior of a system before it is ever actually built. Modeling and simulation are the only techniques available that allow us to analyze arbitrarily non-linear systems accurately and under varying experimental conditions. Continuous System Modeling introduces the student to an important subclass of these techniques. They deal with the analysis of systems described through a set of ordinary or partial differential equations or through a set of difference equations. This volume introduces concepts of modeling physical systems through a set of differential and/or difference equations. The purpose is twofold: it enhances the scientific understanding of our physical world by codifying (organizing) knowledge about this world, and it supports engineering design by allowing us to assess the consequences of a particular design alternative before it is actually built. This text has a flavor of the mathematical discipline of dynamical systems, and is strongly oriented towards Newtonian physical science.