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This study assesses the impacts of climate risks and development alternatives on water and agriculture in the Indus basin of Pakistan. It analyzes inter-relationships among the climate, water, and agriculture sectors and provides a systems modeling framework for these purposes.
Due to inadequate rainfall, groundwater has acquired a vital role in the development of Pakistan's agricultural economy. However, a lack of awareness concerning the use of groundwater, either by itself or combined with canal water, has added large amounts of salt to the soil. As a result, large tracts of irrigated lands are already salinized, while many others are under threat. This report presents the results of a modeling study carried out to evaluate the long-term effects of a different quality of irrigation water on root zone salinity. The simulations were performed for the Rechna Doab (sub basin of the Indus Basin) in Pakistan, by using 15 years of actual rainfall and climatic data.
This working paper takes stock of Pakistan's water resource availability, delineating water supply system and its sources including precipitation and river flows, and the impact of increasing climatic variability on the water supply system. In particular, the paper focuses on the current water usage and requirements in the agricultural sector, and how changing climatic conditions will affect the consumption patterns. With inflows expected to become more variable in the coming years, the severity of climatic extremities will become more pronounced, driving up water demands in addition to the demand increase from a rising population and urbanization. Over extraction of groundwater resources is also disturbing the water calculus and pushing the country towards a critical demand-supply gap.
This volume calls upon over a dozen Indus observers to imagine a scenario for the Indus basin in which transboundary cooperation over water resources overcomes the insecurity arising from water dependence and scarcity. From diverse perspectives, its essays examine the potential benefits to be gained from revisiting the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, as well as from mounting joint efforts to increase water supply, to combat climate change, to develop hydroelectric power, and to improve water management. The Indus basin is shared by four countries (Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan). The basin’s significance stems in part simply from the importance of these countries, three of them among the planet’s most populous states, one of them boasting the world’s second largest economy, and three of them members of the exclusive nuclear weapons club. However, the basin’s significance stems also from the great importance of the Indus waters themselves – due especially to the region’s massive dependence on irrigated agriculture as well as to the menace of climate change and advancing water scarcity. The “Industan” this volume imagines is a definite departure from business as usual responses to the Indus basin’s emerging fresh water crisis. The objective is to kindle serious discussion of the cooperation needed to confront what many water experts believe is developing into one of the planet’s most gravely threatened river basins. It is thus both assessment of the current state of play in regard to water security in the Indus basin and recommendation about where to go from here.
ThisThis report discusses the nature and causes of secondary salinization, reviews strategies developed and tested within IBIS to mitigate salinization, and identifies areas requiring further investigation.