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This paper reviews the evolution of certain price and nonprice competitiveness indicators in Chile and concludes that the pecuniary loss of competitiveness associated with the appreciation of the peso since the late 1980s has been broadly offset by productivity gains and adjustments in factor intensity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, there may be limited room for further advances from that point, which gives new prominence to certain policy issues such as structural reforms to increase productivity, a reassessment of the tax treatment of the mining sector, and a rebalancing of the macroeconomic policy mix to dampen speculative capital inflows.
This paper reviews the evolution of certain price and nonprice competitiveness indicators in Chile and concludes that the pecuniary loss of competitiveness associated with the appreciation of the peso since the late 1980s has been broadly offset by productivity gains and adjustments in factor intensity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, there may be limited room for further advances from that point, which gives new prominence to certain policy issues such as structural reforms to increase productivity, a reassessment of the tax treatment of the mining sector, and a rebalancing of the macroeconomic policy mix to dampen speculative capital inflows.
This publication presents an analysis of the evolution of the competitiveness in the traded goods sectors in six Latin American countries. It finds that the competitiveness of the nontraditional traded goods sector has evolved in different ways among these countries during recent years. Since the mid-1990s, it has stabilized in Argentina while improving in Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Results for Brazil are ambiguous.
We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment when the domestic currency weakens, in line with the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. However, in other emerging market and developing economies, as well as some advanced economies with a low degree of structural economic complexity, corporate investment increases when the domestic currency strengthens. This result is consistent with Diaz Alejandro (1963)—in economies where capital goods are mostly imported, a stronger real exchange rate reduces investment costs for domestic firms.
Chile’s pension system came under close scrutiny in recent years. This paper takes stock of the adequacy of the system and highlights its challenges. Chile’s defined contribution system was quite influential when introduced, and was taken as an example by other countries. However, it is now delivering low replacement rates relative to OECD peers, as its parameters did not adapt over time to changing demographics and global returns, while informality persists in the labor market. In the absence of reforms, the system’s inability to deliver adequate outcomes for a large share of participants will continue to magnify, as demographic trends and low global interest rates will continue to reduce replacement rates. In addition, recent legislation allowing for pension savings withdrawals to counter the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, is projected to further reduce replacement rates and increase fiscal costs. A substantial improvement in replacement rates is feasible, via a reform that raises contribution rates and the retirement age, coupled with policies that increases workers’ contribution density.
This paper presents international evidence on the determinants of trade dynamics. It provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. A comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries.
This paper attempts to provide a perspective on real exchange rate developments following the inception of the EMS. The focus is on structural determinants of real exchange rates, notably the behavior of tradables and nontradable prices and productivity. It is found that changes in the relative price of tradable goods in terms of nontradables account for a sizable fraction of real exchange rate dynamics during the EMS period. Sectoral productivity growth differential help explain the behavior of the relative price of tradable goods, especially in the long run. There is also some evidence that the EMS has extended on relative price behavior.