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This paper studies how global and local factors drive local currency (LC) sovereign yields in four Asia-Pacific (AP) countries - China, Korea, Singapore and Indonesia - through the lens of a cross-country term structure model. The analysis distinguishes between the currency risk component of the yields, measured as spreads of LC AP yields over US dollar-denominated AP yields, and the credit risk component, measured as spreads of US dollar-denominated AP yields over US Treasury yields.Full Publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3383273" Asia-Pacific Fixed Income Markets: Evolving Structure, Participation and Pricing.
Papers in this volume were prepared for BOK-BIS Conference on "Asia-Pacific Fixed Income Markets: Evolving Structure, Participation and Pricing" held in Seoul, Korea on 19-20 November 2018.While the full publication can be downloaded using the above link, individual contributions are available separately."http://ssrn.com/abstract=3387141" The Term Structures of Global Yields (Keynote)"http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390918" The Global Impact of Risk-Off Shocks "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390919" Comments on 'The Global Impact of Risk-Off Shocks' "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390920" Determinants of Asia-Pacific Government Bond Yields "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390922" Comments on 'Determinants of Asia-Pacific Government Bond Yields' "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390923" Measuring Corporate Bond Liquidity in Emerging Market Economies: Price- vs Quantity-Based Measures "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390941" Comments on 'Measuring Corporate Bond Liquidity in Emerging Markets: Price- vs Quantity-Based Measures' "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390946" The Rise of Benchmark Bonds in Emerging Asia "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390948" Comments on 'The Rise of Benchmark Bonds in Emerging Asia' Review "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390950" Local Currency Bond Returns in Emerging Market Economies and the Role of Foreign Investors "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390955" Comments on 'Local Currency Bond Returns in Emerging Market Economies and the Role of Foreign Investors' "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390957" Corporate Bond Use in Asia and the United States "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390963" Comments on 'Corporate Bond Use in Asia and the United States' "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390965" The Role of Different Institutional Investors in Asia-Pacific Bond Markets during the Taper Tantrum "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390969" Comments on 'The Role of Different Institutional Investors in Asia-Pacific Bond Markets During the Taper Tantrum' "http://ssrn.com/abstract=3390971" Emerging Market Bond Funds: Flow-Performance Relationship and Long-Term Institutional Investors.
The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in late 2002 and 2003 challenged the global public health community to confront a novel epidemic that spread rapidly from its origins in southern China until it had reached more than 25 other countries within a matter of months. In addition to the number of patients infected with the SARS virus, the disease had profound economic and political repercussions in many of the affected regions. Recent reports of isolated new SARS cases and a fear that the disease could reemerge and spread have put public health officials on high alert for any indications of possible new outbreaks. This report examines the response to SARS by public health systems in individual countries, the biology of the SARS coronavirus and related coronaviruses in animals, the economic and political fallout of the SARS epidemic, quarantine law and other public health measures that apply to combating infectious diseases, and the role of international organizations and scientific cooperation in halting the spread of SARS. The report provides an illuminating survey of findings from the epidemic, along with an assessment of what might be needed in order to contain any future outbreaks of SARS or other emerging infections.
What determines the ability of low-income developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) that issued sovereign bonds at least once during the period 1995-2013 as well as those that did not. We find that an EMDE is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, and has stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. With regard to global factors, the results show that sovereign bond spreads are reduced in periods of lower market volatility.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Social justice is a matter of life and death. It affects the way people live, their consequent chance of illness, and their risk of premature death. We watch in wonder as life expectancy and good health continue to increase in parts of the world and in alarm as they fail to improve in others.
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.
We analyze the relationship between global and country-specific factors and emerging market debt spreads from three different angles. First, we aim to disentangle the effect of global and country-specific developments, and find that while both country-specific and global developments are important in the long-run, global factors are main determinants of spreads in the short-run. Second, we investigate whether and how the strength of fundamentals is related to the sensitivity of spreads to global factors. Countries with stronger fundamentals tend to have lower sensitivity to changes in global risk aversion. Third, we decompose changes in spreads and analyze the behavior of explained and unexplained components over different periods. To do so, we break down fitted changes in spreads into the contribution of country-specific and global factors, as well as decompose changes in the residual into the correction of initial misalignment and an increase/decrease in misalignment. We find that changes in spreads follow periods of tightening/widening, which are well-explained by the model; and the dynamics of the components of the unexplained residual follow all the major developments that impact market sentiment. In particular, we find that in the periods of severe marketstress, such as during the intensive phase of the Eurozone debt crisis, global factors tend to drive changes in the spreads and the misalignment tends to increase in magnitude and its relative share in actual spreads.