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This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
Provides students with a solid foundation in climate science, with which to understand global warming, natural climate variations, and climate models. As climate models are one of our primary tools for predicting and adapting to climate change, it is vital we appreciate their strengths and limitations. Also key is understanding what aspects of climate science are well understood and where quantitative uncertainties arise. This textbook will inform the future users of climate models and the decision-makers of tomorrow by providing the depth they need, while requiring no background in atmospheric science and only basic calculus and physics. Developed from a course that the author teaches at UCLA, material has been extensively class-tested and with online resources of colour figures, Powerpoint slides, and problem sets, this is a complete package for students across all sciences wishing to gain a solid grounding in climate science.
This edited collection of works by leading climate scientists and philosophers introduces readers to issues in the foundations, evaluation, confirmation, and application of climate models. It engages with important topics directly affecting public policy, including the role of doubt, the use of satellite data, and the robustness of models. Climate Modelling provides an early and significant contribution to the burgeoning Philosophy of Climate Science field that will help to shape our understanding of these topics in both philosophy and the wider scientific context. It offers insight into the reasons we should believe what climate models say about the world but addresses the issues that inform how reliable and well-confirmed these models are. This book will be of interest to students of climate science, philosophy of science, and of particular relevance to policy makers who depend on the models that forecast future states of the climate and ocean in order to make public policy decisions.
As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition explains the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book assists the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. The accompanying CD contains: A suite of resources for those wishing to learn more about climate modelling. A range of model visualisations. Data from climate models for use in the classroom. Windows and Macintosh programs for an Energy Balance Model. Selected figures from the book for inclusion in presentations and lectures. Suitable for 3rd/4th year undergraduates taking courses in climate modelling, economic forecasting, computer science, environmental science, geography and oceanography. Also of relevance to researchers and professionals working in related disciplines with climate models or who need accessible technical background to climate modelling predictions.
This book sets forth the physical, mathematical, and numerical foundations of computer models used to understand and predict the global ocean climate system. Aimed at students and researchers of ocean and climate science who seek to understand the physical content of ocean model equations and numerical methods for their solution, it is largely general in formulation and employs modern mathematical techniques. It also highlights certain areas of cutting-edge research. Stephen Griffies presents material that spans a broad spectrum of issues critical for modern ocean climate models. Topics are organized into parts consisting of related chapters, with each part largely self-contained. Early chapters focus on the basic equations arising from classical mechanics and thermodynamics used to rationalize ocean fluid dynamics. These equations are then cast into a form appropriate for numerical models of finite grid resolution. Basic discretization methods are described for commonly used classes of ocean climate models. The book proceeds to focus on the parameterization of phenomena occurring at scales unresolved by the ocean model, which represents a large part of modern oceanographic research. The final part provides a tutorial on the tensor methods that are used throughout the book, in a general and elegant fashion, to formulate the equations.
In response to a request from Congress, Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years assesses the state of scientific efforts to reconstruct surface temperature records for Earth during approximately the last 2,000 years and the implications of these efforts for our understanding of global climate change. Because widespread, reliable temperature records are available only for the last 150 years, scientists estimate temperatures in the more distant past by analyzing "proxy evidence," which includes tree rings, corals, ocean and lake sediments, cave deposits, ice cores, boreholes, and glaciers. Starting in the late 1990s, scientists began using sophisticated methods to combine proxy evidence from many different locations in an effort to estimate surface temperature changes during the last few hundred to few thousand years. This book is an important resource in helping to understand the intricacies of global climate change.
A collection of articles written by mathematicians and physicists, designed to describe the state of the art in climate models with stochastic input. Mathematicians will benefit from a survey of simple models, while physicists will encounter mathematically relevant techniques at work.
A three-tier approach is presented: (i) fundamental dynamical concepts of climate processes, (ii) their mathematical formulation based on balance equations, and (iii) the necessary numerical techniques to solve these equations. This book showcases the global energy balance of the climate system and feedback processes that determine the climate sensitivity, initial-boundary value problems, energy transport in the climate system, large-scale ocean circulation and abrupt climate change.
Energy Balance Climate Models Written by renowned experts in the field, this first book to focus exclusively on energy balance climate models provides a concise overview of the topic. It covers all major aspects, from the simplest zero-dimensional models, proceeding to horizontally and vertically resolved models. The text begins with global average models, which are explored in terms of their elementary forms yielding the global average temperature, right up to the incorporation of feedback mechanisms and some analytical properties of interest. The eff ect of stochastic forcing is then used to introduce natural variability in the models before turning to the concept of stability theory. Other one dimensional or zonally averaged models are subsequently presented, along with various applications, including chapters on paleoclimatology, the inception of continental glaciations, detection of signals in the climate system, and optimal estimation of large scale quantities from point scale data. Throughout the book, the authors work on two mathematical levels: qualitative physical expositions of the subject material plus optional mathematical sections that include derivations and treatments of the equations along with some proofs of stability theorems. A must-have introduction for policy makers, environmental agencies, and NGOs, as well as climatologists, molecular physicists, and meteorologists.
An introduction to the complex world of climate models that explains why we should trust their predictions despite the uncertainties.