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China’s rise will be long-term punitive for the rest of Asia. Across all aspects of Asian geopolitics and economics, China’s ascendency to regional hegemonic status will result in the decline of its neighbours’ political independence, economic dynamism and future growth potential. Any short-term benefits of China’s growth, such as increased trade, will be transitory. The longer-term implications of its emergence as the regional hegemon will be greater economic and financial dependencies and vulnerabilities, the large-scale shift of business activity to within its boundaries and its increasing geopolitical influence across the region. The challenge for China’s neighbours is how to respond to these evolving dynamics, especially as their strategic options are increasingly limited and few of the potential future scenarios are long-term positive. China’s rise, therefore, be Asia’s decline.
China's rapid military and economic growth has fuelled a steady stream of analysis and debate about the PRC's motivations and objectives regarding the United States. Yet until now, there has not been a sustained, single-authored assessment in English of China's expanding influence in Asia in the post-Cold War period. Respected analyst Robert G. Sutter draws on his extensive experience in the region to explore the current debate on China's rise and its meaning for U.S. interests by examining in detail China's current and historical relations with the key countries of Asia. He finds a range of motivations underlying China's recent initiatives. Some incline Chinese policy to be cooperative with the United States, others to be competitive and confrontational. Sutter's nuanced study shows that U.S. power and influence continue to dominate Asia and play a critical role in determining China's cooperative or confrontational approach. He argues that the Bush administration's policies of firmness and cooperation have encouraged China to stay on a generally constructive track in the region.
Executive Summary:Foreign policy makers in the United States should not be misled by prevailing media and scholarly assessments that exaggerate China?s influence in Asia relative to that of the United States. In particular, it would be a mistake for the Bush administration to give in to recent congressional, media, and interest group pressures that employ overstated assessments of China?s increasing power in order to push for tough U.S. government policies to confront and compete with China. This study shows that overt U.S. competition with China for influence is unwelcome in Asia, counterproductive for U.S. interests in the region, and unwarranted given the limited challenge posed by China?s rise. Prevailing assessments and commentaries about China?s rise in Asia are unbalanced, emphasizing China?s strengths and the United States? weaknesses. With few exceptions, they give inadequate attention to Chinese weaknesses and U.S. strengths. This study demonstrates that China?s recent success in Asia rests heavily on a fairly narrow foundation?that is, generally adroit Chinese diplomacy and intra-Asian trade that is less significant than the reported figures of annual trade between China and its neighbors would suggest. China?s willingness and ability to lead in Asia is undermined notably by many domestic preoccupations, nationalistic ambitions at odds with Asian neighbors, and economic complications posed by China?s rise as many countries in Asia are left further behind.Moreover, Chinese leaders and officials continue to follow policies that do not require either China or its neighboring countries to make significant changes, sacrifices, or commitments for one another that they would not ordinarily make. Thus, China?s Asian approach focuses on ?easy? things?the ?low-hanging fruit??and avoids costly commitments or major risk. By contrast, U.S. leadership in Asia, though challenged by unpopular policies in Southwest Asia and Korea, along with insufficient attention in dealing with Asian governments, remains strong in undertaking responsibilities and providing needed security and economic benefits to Asian states. The United States continues to show influence in Asia in concrete ways, notably by influencing Asian governments to do things they would not be inclined to do.Predictions of an emerging order in Asia led by a rising China that will marginalize the United States illustrate how far many of the predominate, unbalanced media and scholarly assessments have gone. They reflect a poor understanding of the ambitions of Asian governments, the resilience of U.S. power and leadership, and the actual status of China?s influence relative to that of the United States in Asian states around China?s periphery. To some extent, a rising China that generally accommodates its neighbors benefits from the fluid post-Cold War Asian order, as various Asian governments seek to broaden international options with various powers in a continuing round of hedging and maneuvering for advantage. But as China rises in influence in Asia, this study shows that these same neighboring governments hedge and maneuver against possible Chinese dominance. In this process, they quietly seek closer ties with one another and particularly with the region?s dominant power, the United States. America?s advantages in this situation are strong. The United States has a proven record of being able and willing to commit significant resources and prestige to protect allies and friends. The United States is very powerful?a superpower?but it is far away from Asia and has none of the territorial and few of the other ambitions that characterize Asian powers. Thus it is less distrusted by Asian governments in comparison with how these governments view one another, including China. As a result, most Asian governments?including China and all the major powers in Asia?give higher priority to relations with the United States than to relations with any power in Asia.In addition to being Asia?s economic partner of choice and acknowledged security guarantor, the United States has a leadership position in Asia that rests on a determined U.S. administration prepared to confront adversaries and opponents. This position gives pause to Asian governments seeking to challenge or displace the United States. The analysis in this monograph demonstrates that even hard-line Chinese critics of U.S. ?hegemony? in Asian and world affairs have been compelled in recent years to adopt alow posture in dealings with the United States, choosing to wait as China builds comprehensive national power over the coming decades.Chinese leaders are often frustrated by U.S. policies and power, and desirous over the long term to see their periphery free of constricting U.S. great power involvement. However, they show little sign of deviating from efforts to expand influence in selected ways that tend to avoid directly challenging the United States. Thus, for the most part, China?s rise in Asia does not come at the expense of U.S. interests and is not a part of a zerosum game resulting in the automatic decline of U.S. influence.To enhance its position in Asia, Washington should focus on repairing negative features of recent U.S. policy in Asia related to the fallout of its actions in Iraq, the Middle East, and Korea; U.S. unilateralism in international politics; and inattentiveness to the concerns of Asian governments over economic development, nation building, and multilateral cooperation. This recommendation requires adjustments, not a wholesale revamping of U.S. policies. Backed by continued, careful management of U.S. security commitments and economic relations with regional governments, they will enhance the leading role of the United States in Asian affairs. The prevailing tendency of Asian governments to hedge in the post- Cold War environment seems likely to continue to pose challenges for U.S. management of alliance and other relations with Asian governments seeking more independence and freedom of action, inclining some to seek closer ties with China, among others. Policymakers in the United States should not overreact to such maneuvers, recognizing that such hedging continues to provide a prominent role for the United States as the region?s well-recognized security stabilizer and economic partner of choice. In particular, Chinese government leaders found that their overt efforts in the late 1990s to compel Asian governments to choose between a rising China and the United States failed in the face of Asian governments? long unwillingness to do so. The government should learn from this experience in seeking to advance its leadership in Asia without the overt competition with China that would try to force Asian governments to make such a choice, probably with negative implications for U.S. leadership in Asia.
China's protracted boom and political transformation is a major episode in the history of global political economy. Beginning in the late 1970s, China experienced a quarter century of extraordinary growth that raised every indicator of material welfare, lifted several hundred million out of poverty, and rocketed China from near autarky to regional and even global prominence. These striking developments transformed China into a major U.S. trade and investment partner, a regional military power, and a major influence on national economies and cross-national interchange throughout the Pacific region. Beijing has emerged as a voice for East Asian economic interests and an arbiter in regional and even global diplomacy-from the Asian financial crisis to the North Korean nuclear talks. China's accession to the World Trade Organization promises to accentuate these trends.The contributors to this volume provide a multifaceted examination of China in the areas of economics, trade, investment, politics, diplomacy, technology, and security, affording a greater understanding of what relevant policies the United States must develop. This book offers a counterweight to overwrought concerns about the emerging "Chinese threat" and makes the case for viewing China as a force for stability in the twenty-first century.
This edited volume offers diverse and comprehensive views of China's rise and its implications to the East Asian region and beyond. The economic growth of China, initially started in the late-1970s with domestic and rural reforms, has been increasingly driven by China's industrialization and integration into the regional and global markets. The gro
Despite the growing internal social unrest and disparity of economic development, the People’s Republic of China is the third largest world economy and the second largest defense spender. Showing no clear signs of slowing down, China’s rise is seen as both an opportunity and a challenge by the major world powers. This book examines every aspect of Beijing's strategies, ranging from political, economic and social challenges, to the Taiwan and Hong Kong issues, to the implications of these strategies in terms of China's place within the Asia Pacific, and indeed within the world system. Written by a stellar line-up of international contributors the book will appeal to students and scholars of Chinese politics, foreign policy, political economy and social policy, and China-watchers alike.
“A standout . . . a balanced, informative, and highly intelligent guide to dealing with China.”—Fareed Zakaria Many see China as a rival superpower to the United States and imagine the country’s rise to be a threat to U.S. leadership in Asia and beyond. Thomas J. Christensen argues against this zero-sum vision. Instead, he describes a new paradigm in which the real challenge lies in dissuading China from regional aggression while encouraging the country to contribute to the global order. Drawing on decades of scholarship and experience as a senior diplomat, Christensen offers a compelling new assessment of U.S.-China relations that is essential reading for anyone interested in the future of the globalized world. The China Challenge shows why China is nowhere near powerful enough to be considered a global “peer competitor” of the United States, but it is already strong enough to destabilize East Asia and to influence economic and political affairs worldwide. Despite China’s impressive achievements, the Chinese Communist Party faces enormous challenges. Christensen shows how nationalism and the threat of domestic instability influence the party’s decisions on issues like maritime sovereignty disputes, global financial management, control of the Internet, climate change, and policies toward Taiwan and Hong Kong. China benefits enormously from the current global order and has no intention of overthrowing it; but that is not enough. China’s active cooperation is essential to global governance. Never before has a developing country like China been asked to contribute so much to ensure international stability. If China obstructs international efforts to confront nuclear proliferation, civil conflicts, financial instability, and climate change, those efforts will falter, but even if China merely declines to support such efforts, the problems will grow vastly more complicated. Analyzing U.S.-China policy since the end of the Cold War, Christensen articulates a balanced strategic approach that explains why we should aim not to block China’s rise but rather to help shape its choices so as to deter regional aggression and encourage China’s active participation in international initiatives that benefit both nations.
Honorable Mention, 2024 T.V. Paul Best Book in Global International Relations, Global International Relations Section, International Studies Association Conventional wisdom holds that China’s rise is disrupting the global balance of power in unpredictable ways. However, China has often deferred to the consensus of smaller neighboring countries on regional security rather than running roughshod over them. Why and when does China exercise restraint—and how does this aspect of Chinese statecraft challenge the assumptions of international relations theory? In Power and Restraint in China’s Rise, Chin-Hao Huang argues that a rising power’s aspirations for acceptance provide a key rationale for refraining from coercive measures. He analyzes Chinese foreign policy conduct in the South China Sea, showing how complying with regional norms and accepting constraints improves external perceptions of China and advances other states’ recognition of China as a legitimate power. Huang details how member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have taken a collective approach to defusing tension in maritime disputes, incentivizing China to support regional security initiatives that it had previously resisted. Drawing on this empirical analysis, Huang develops new theoretical perspectives on why great powers eschew coercion in favor of restraint when they seek legitimacy. His framework explains why a dominant state with rising ambitions takes the views and interests of small states into account, as well as how collective action can induce change in a major power’s behavior. Offering new insight into the causes and consequences of change in recent Chinese foreign policy, this book has significant implications for the future of engagement with China.
The phenomenal growth of Chinese economic and military power in the first decade of the 21st century has drawn world-wide attention. Perceptions of China's rise have shifted from seeing China as a threat to a more mixed view, where China is seen as playing a key role in economic recovery, taking an increasingly responsible role in world affairs, and contributing significantly to scientific and technological advances. This book argues that China will only become a truly global power when its rising power status is accepted, or at least tolerated, by other major powers and China’s neighbours. Filling a major gap in the existing literature, it presents a comprehensive overview of how China's rise is perceived in a wide range of countries and regions – these include China's neighbours, other world powers, the parts of China not part of mainland China - Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau - and regions of the world where China is having an unexpected impact, such as the Middle East. It also examines changing perceptions of China in the western media. Overall, the book demonstrates that whilst many countries and regions are much more positive about China's rise than they were before, considerable nervousness and concern persists.