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This book includes a series of reports that mainly discuss the Middle Income Trap against the backdrop of population ageing in China. It also offers practical suggestions on how to avoid it properly. Concretely, it argues that the government should accelerate the transition of economic development modes, resolve concentrated social conflicts, promote a balanced rural and urban development during the process of urbanization, and mitigate the effects of population ageing by fostering strengths and avoiding weaknesses. As for the challenges posed by population ageing in China, it puts forward five core suggestions tailored to China’s unique situation. Assessing a number of real-world challenges, the general report and the special reports combine theory and empirical findings, using primary data for their analyses. Given the wealth of essential information it provides, the book offers a valuable reference resource for decision-makers.
This book includes a series of reports that mainly discuss the Middle Income Trap against the backdrop of population ageing in China. It also offers practical suggestions on how to avoid it properly. Concretely, it argues that the government should accelerate the transition of economic development modes, resolve concentrated social conflicts, promote a balanced rural and urban development during the process of urbanization, and mitigate the effects of population ageing by fostering strengths and avoiding weaknesses. As for the challenges posed by population ageing in China, it puts forward five core suggestions tailored to China's unique situation. Assessing a number of real-world challenges, the general report and the special reports combine theory and empirical findings, using primary data for their analyses. Given the wealth of essential information it provides, the book offers a valuable reference resource for decision-makers.
Population aging is perhaps the single biggest economic and social obstacle confronting AsiaÕs future. The region-wide demographic transition towards an older population is fundamentally reshaping the demographic landscape, and is giving rise to two key socio-economic challenges. This timely book provides an in-depth analysis of these challenges and presents concrete policy options for tackling them. First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are then presented. These include Asia-wide policy options Ð relevant to the entire region Ð such as building up strong national pension systems, whilst other policy options are more relevant to sub-groups of countries. This stimulating and informative book will be of great interest to academics, students and researchers with an interest in Asian studies, economics generally, and more specifically, public sector economics.
We present three conditions for a demography-driven middle-income trap and show that many economies in East, South, and Southeast Asia satisfy all of them. The conditions are (1) support ratio--the ratio of workers to consumers--matters for economic growth, (2) economic development accompanies more investment in human capital and lower fertility due to the quantity-quality trade-off, and (3) current low level of fertility corresponds to too low support ratios for keeping up with the frontier economies in the long run. The panel analyses for 178 countries, among which 30 are ADB developing member economies, show that (i) and (ii) are satisfied for Asia with higher elasticity than others. As for (iii), we set up a dynamic model for simulations, showing that about two-thirds of ADB members have unsustainable level of support ratios, implying possibilities of a middle-income trap due to demographic headwinds in the future.
The economic success of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the last three decades has brought with it new challenges. With a per capita gross national income of $4,930 in 2011, the PRC has just passed the threshold of upper-middle-income status and it still has a long way to go before becoming a high-income country. But with rising wages and population aging, growth will have to be increasingly driven by productivity improvement through innovation and industrial upgrading---the PRC needs to move from a lowcost to a high-value economy. Moreover, rapid growth has exposed several structural problems, in particular, economic imbalances, rising inequality, resource constraints, and environmental degradation. If not addressed, these problems could hinder PRC's efforts in moving toward a high-value economy and increase the risk of getting caught in what is increasingly known as the "middle-income trap."
This open access book explores one of the most fiercely debated issues in China: if and how China will surpass the middle income trap that has plagued many developing countries for years. This book gives readers a clear picture of China today and acts as a reference for other developing countries. China is facing many setbacks and experiencing an economic slowdown in recent years due to some serious issues, and income inequality is one such issue deferring China’s development potential by creating a middle income trap. This book thoroughly investigates both the unpromising factors and favorable conditions for China to overcome the trap. It illustrates that traps may be encountered at any stage of development and argues that political stability is the prerequisite to creating a favorable environment for economic development and addressing this “middle income trap”. Written by one of China's central planners, this book offers precious insights into the industrial policies that are transforming China and the world and will be of interest to China scholars, economists and political scientists.
An East Asian Renaissance, by a World Bank team led by Chief Economist for East Asia & Pacific, Dr Homi Kharas and Economic Adviser, Dr Indermit Gill is the first comprehensive analysis of the new forces and challenges at play in the region since the Bank's seminal report of 1993, The East Asian Miracle. The report argues that regional flows of goods, finance and technology are helping even smaller East Asian countries reap the benefits of economies of scale and that this regional integration must be encouraged. But it also points out that these measures have to be supported by actions at the domestic level to ease the stresses and strains that rapid economic growth leaves in its wake. East Asia must now turn to the urgent domestic challenges of inequality, social cohesion, corruption and environmental degradation arising from its economic success.
'While there already exists a crowded body of publications addressing the effect of an aging population on the economy, this monograph is most outstanding in presenting a global, in-depth analysis of the implications thereby generated for 23 developed and developing countries. . . Scholars, researchers, and practitioners everywhere will benefit immensely from this comprehensive work.' – H.I. Liebling, Choice 'Ron Lee and Andrew Mason's Population Aging and the Generational Economy is a demographic and economic tour-de-force. Their collaborative, intercontinental. . . study of aging, consumption, labor supply, saving, and private and public transfers is the place to go to understand global aging and its myriad and significant economic challenges and opportunities.' – Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston University, US 'The culmination of. . . work by Lee, Mason, and their collaborators from around the world to extend Samuelson's framework to accommodate realistic demography, empirical measurement of age-specific earnings, consumption, tax payments, and benefit receipts, the studies. . . demonstrate the power of this integrated economic-demographic framework to advance our understanding of critical public policy challenges faced by countries at different stages of demographic transition and population aging.' – Robert Willis, University of Michigan, US 'Lee and Mason have done scholars and practitioners a magnificent service by undertaking this comprehensive, compelling, and supremely innovative examination of the economic consequences of changes in population age structure. The book is a bona fide crystal ball. It will be a MUST READ for the next decade!' – David Bloom, Harvard School of Public Health, US 'Population Aging and the Generational Economy provides an encompassing account of what we know about population aging and the impact that this process will have on our economies. It does not confine itself to the advanced industrial countries, where aging has already been largely studied, but adopts a truly global perspective. I am sure it will become a key reference for researchers, students and those involved in policy-making in areas that are affected by population aging.' – Giuliano Bonoli, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (IDHEAP), Switzerland Over coming decades, changes in population age structure will have profound implications for the macroeconomy, influencing economic growth, generational equity, human capital, saving and investment, and the sustainability of public and private transfer systems. How the future unfolds will depend on key actors in the generational economy: governments, families, financial institutions, and others. This path-breaking book provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic effects of changes in population age structure across the globe. The result of a substantial seven-year research project involving over 50 economists and demographers from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States, the book draws on a new and comprehensive conceptual framework – National Transfer Accounts – to quantify the economic lifecycle and economic flows across generations. It presents comprehensive estimates of both public and private economic flows between generations, and emphasizes the global nature of changes in population age structure that are affecting rich and poor countries alike. This unique and informative book will prove an invaluable reference tool for a wide-ranging audience encompassing students, researchers, and academics in fields such as demography, aging, public finance, economic development, macroeconomics, gerontology, and national income accounting; for policy-makers and advisers focusing on areas of the public sector such as education, health, pensions, other social security programs, tax policy, and public debt; and for policy analysts at international agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the UN.
China's extraordinarily rapid economic growth since 1978, driven by market-oriented reforms, has set world records and continued unabated, despite predictions of an inevitable slowdown. In The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?, renowned China scholar Nicholas R. Lardy argues that China's future growth prospects could be equally bright but are shadowed by the specter of resurgent state dominance, which has begun to diminish the vital role of the market and private firms in China's economy. Lardy's book arrives in timely fashion as a sequel to his pathbreaking Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China, published by PIIE in 2014. This book mobilizes new data to trace how President Xi Jinping has consistently championed state-owned or controlled enterprises, encouraging local political leaders and financial institutions to prop up ailing, underperforming companies that are a drag on China's potential. As with his previous book, Lardy's perspective departs from conventional wisdom, especially in its contention that China could achieve a high growth rate for the next two decades—if it reverses course and returns to the path of market-oriented reforms.