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This report analyzes international and domestic factors that will affect China's approach to nuclear deterrence, how those drivers may evolve over the next 15 years, and what impact they are likely to have.
"China's approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first nuclear test in 1964. Key elements are its no-first-use policy and reliance on a small force of nuclear weapons capable of executing retaliatory strikes if China is attacked. China has recently accelerated nuclear force building and modernization, and both international and domestic factors are likely to drive faster modernization in the future. Chinese nuclear planners are concerned by strategic developments in the United States, especially the deployment of missile defenses. Within the region, Beijing is also an actor in complex multilateral security dynamics that now include several nuclear states, and the improving nuclear capabilities of China's neighbors, especially India, are a growing concern for Beijing. Constituencies for nuclear weapons have gained in bureaucratic standing within the People's Liberation Army (PLA). With few, if any, firewalls between China's conventional and nuclear missile forces, new technologies developed for the former are already being applied to the latter, a trend that will almost certainly continue. Given these changes, China is likely to increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence, accelerate nuclear force modernization, and make adjustments (although not wholesale changes) to policy"--Publisher's description.
This report finds that China's strategic-deterrence concepts are evolving in response to a changing assessment of its external security environment and a growing emphasis on protecting its emerging interests in space and cyberspace.
?Provides cutting-edge empirical research on a difficult strategic question, while also situating the issue within a nuanced discussion of recent Chinese history and intellectual traditions. China?s Nuclear Future contributes much to a new understanding of China?s nuclear policy past, present, and future.? ?Andrew Oros, Washington CollegeIn the face of significant changes in the contemporary geopolitical environment, China?s longstanding policy of maintaining a minimal nuclear stockpile may also be shifting. China?s Nuclear Future provides a comprehensive overview of both the evolution of China?s nuclear policy and the strategic implications of current developments.The authors examine a full range of issues, from China?s rising economic fortunes to the impact of the U.S.-led war on terror. Their assessment of the drivers and constraints that are transforming China?s nuclear posture is key to understanding not only the country?s possible nuclear futures, but also the broader issue of its role in world politics.Paul J. Bolt is professor of political science at the U.S. Air Force Academy. Albert S. Willner, Colonel, U.S. Army, taught in the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy in 2000-2004; at present, he is pending assignment as the Chief of the Liaison Affairs Section at the American Institute in Taiwan. Contents: China?s Nuclear Future in a Changing Environment?the Editors. Culture, Strategy, and Security?C.A. Cleary. Evolving Nuclear Doctrine?E.S. Medeiros. Strategic Force Modernization?P.C. Saunders and J. Yuan. Beijing?s Perceptions of U.S. Intentions?R.N. Montaperto. The Potential Flashpoint: Taiwan?T. Wai. Alternative Futures?B. Roberts.
Kinas nukleare strategi analyseres på baggrund af kinesiske strategiske traditioner. Hensigten er at give en forståelse af Kinas særlige nukleare forestillinger som verdens trediestørste nuklearmagt.
This inside look at the history and politics of China's changing nuclear posture is based on extensive analysis of Chinese and Western documents and interviews conducted in China. The new data, future scenarios, and unique perspective make it essential reading for any assessment of China's nuclear future. A Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Book
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is in the process of improving its nuclear forces as part of a larger modernization program. The ongoing modernization e ort seems to include major new nuclear weapons programs, including new intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and even a new bomber. The Chinese think about deterrence di erently than do American policy- makers, given their radically di erent set of historical and cultural circumstances. China’s approach to deterrence is about dissuasion and coercion. Deterrence is not focused on preventing actions in a given domain or with certain types of weapons (e.g., space or cyber capabilities), but about achieving certain political goals. It is essen- tial that the United States also maintain a modern nuclear arsenal in order to ensure that the Chinese do not miscalculate either American capabilities or resolve.
"This volume brings together an international group of distinguished scholars to provide a fresh assessment of China's strategic military capabilities, doctrines, and perceptions in light of rapidly advancing technologies, an expanding and modernizing nuclear arsenal, and increased great-power competition with the United States. China's strategic weapons are its expanding nuclear arsenal and emerging conventional weapons systems such as hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite missiles. China's strategic arsenal is important because of how it affects the dynamics of US-China relations and the relationship between China and its neighbors. Without a doubt China's strategic arsenal is growing in size and sophistication, but this book also examines key uncertainties. Will China's new capabilities and confidence lead it to be more assertive or take more risks? Will China's nuclear traditions (i.e., no first use) change as the strategic balance improves? Will China's approach to military competition in the domains of cyberspace and outer space be guided by a notion of strategic stability or not? Will there be a strategic arms race with the United States? The goal of this book is to update our understanding of these issues and to make predictions about how these dynamics may play out"--
China�s nuclear arsenal has long been an enigma. The arsenal has historically been small, based almost exclusively on land-based ballistic missiles, maintained at a low level of alert, and married to a no-first-use doctrine � all choices that would seem to invite attack in a crisis. Chinese leaders, when they have spoken about nuclear weapons, have articulated ideas that sound odd to the Western ear. Mao Zedong�s oft-quoted remark that �nuclear weapons are a paper tiger� seems to be bluster or madness. China�s nuclear forces are now too important to remain a mystery. Yet Westerners continue to disagree about basic factual information concerning one of the world�s most important nuclear-weapons states. This Adelphi book documents and explains the evolution of China�s nuclear forces in terms of historical, bureaucratic and ideological factors. There is a strategic logic at work, but that logic is mediated through politics, bureaucracy and ideology. The simplest explanation is that Chinese leaders, taken as a whole, have tended to place relatively little emphasis on the sort of technical details that dominated US discussions regarding deterrence. Such profound differences in thinking about nuclear weapons could lead to catastrophic misunderstanding in the event of a military crisis between Beijing and Washington.
While the world’s attention is focused on the nuclearization of North Korea and Iran and the nuclear brinkmanship between India and Pakistan, China is believed to have doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal, making it “the forgotten nuclear power,” as described in Foreign Affairs. Susan Turner Haynes analyzes China’s buildup and its diversification of increasingly mobile, precise, and sophisticated nuclear weapons. Haynes provides context and clarity on this complex global issue through an analysis of extensive primary source research and lends insight into questions about why China is the only nuclear weapon state recognized under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that continues to pursue qualitative and quantitative advancements to its nuclear force. As the gap between China’s nuclear force and the forces of the nuclear superpowers narrows against the expressed interest of many nuclear and nonnuclear states, Chinese Nuclear Proliferation offers policy prescriptions to curtail China’s nuclear growth and to assuage fears that the “American world order” presents a direct threat to China’s national security. Presenting technical concepts with minimal jargon in a straightforward style, this book will be of use to casual China watchers and military experts alike.