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As a result of soaring energy demand from a staggering pace of economic expansion and the related growth of energy-intensive industry, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest contributor to CO2 emissions in 2007. At the same time, China has taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity by setting both a short-term energy intensity reduction goal for 2006 to 2010 as well as a long-term carbon intensity reduction goal for 2020. This study presents a China Energy Outlook through 2050 that assesses the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its intensity reduction goals. Over the past few years, LBNL has established and significantly enhanced its China End-Use Energy Model which is based on the diffusion of end-use technologies and other physical drivers of energy demand. This model presents an important new approach for helping understand China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies through scenario analysis. A baseline ('Continued Improvement Scenario') and an alternative energy efficiency scenario ('Accelerated Improvement Scenario') have been developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to control energy demand growth and mitigate emissions. In addition, this analysis also evaluated China's long-term domestic energy supply in order to gauge the potential challenge China may face in meeting long-term demand for energy. It is a common belief that China's CO2 emissions will continue to grow throughout this century and will dominate global emissions. The findings from this research suggest that this will not necessarily be the case because saturation in ownership of appliances, construction of residential and commercial floor area, roadways, railways, fertilizer use, and urbanization will peak around 2030 with slowing population growth. The baseline and alternative scenarios also demonstrate that China's 2020 goals can be met and underscore the significant role that policy-driven energy efficiency improvements will play in carbon mitigation along with a decarbonized power supply through greater renewable and non-fossil fuel generation.
As a result of soaring energy demand from a staggering pace of economic expansion and the related growth of energy-intensive industry, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest contributor to CO2 emissions in 2007. At the same time, China has taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity by setting both a short-term energy intensity reduction goal for 2006 to 2010 as well as a long-term carbon intensity reduction goal for 2020. This book presents a China Energy Outlook through 2050 that assesses the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its intensity reduction goals.
This outlook highlights climate-safe investment options until 2050, policies for transition and specific regional challenges. It also explores options to eventually cut emissions to zero.
As a result of soaring energy demand from a staggering pace of economic growth and the related growth of energy-intensive industry, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest contributor to CO2 emissions in 2007. At the same time, China has taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity by setting both short-term energy intensity reduction goal for 2006 to 2010 as well as long-term carbon intensity reduction goal for 2020. This study focuses on a China Energy Outlook through 2050 that assesses the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its intensity reduction goals. In the past years, LBNL has established and significantly enhanced the China End-Use Energy Model based on the diffusion of end-use technologies and other physical drivers of energy demand. This model presents an important new approach for helping understand China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies through scenario analysis. A baseline ('Continued Improvement Scenario') and an alternative energy efficiency scenario ('Accelerated Improvement Scenario') have been developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to control energy demand growth and mitigate emissions. It is a common belief that China's CO2 emissions will continue to grow throughout this century and will dominate global emissions. The findings from this research suggest that this will not likely be the case because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, railways, fertilizer use, and urbanization will peak around 2030 with slowing population growth. The baseline and alternative scenarios also demonstrate that the 2020 goals can be met and underscore the significant role that policy-driven energy efficiency improvements will play in carbon mitigation along with a decarbonized power supply through greater renewable and non-fossil fuel generation.
The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specific section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO2 savings potential back to the underlying strategies and combination of efficiency and abatement policy instruments represented by each scenario, this analysis also had other important but often overlooked findings.
This pioneering book provides a comprehensive, rigorous and in-depth analysis of China's energy and environmental policy for the transition towards a low-carbon economy. This unique book focuses on concrete, constructive and realistic solutions to China's unprecedented environmental pollution and rising greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and energy security as a result of steeply rising oil imports. It provides an up-to-date factual analysis of China's efforts and commitments to improve energy efficiency, to cut pollutants and to increase the use of renewable energy to create a low-carbon economy. The author explores many of the policies and measures that China has put in place to save energy and reduce emissions, as well as examines new policies and measures in order for China to be successful. Energy and Environmental Policy in China will prove to be of great value to practitioners and policymakers, as well as to academies and students in the areas of economics, environmental studies, Asian studies, regional and urban studies, law, political science and sociology.
This book discusses the prospects for China achieving radical reductions in carbon emissions, within the context of the current economic and political landscape. With a particular focus on technologies such as such as wind power, solar power and electric vehicles, Toke examines the way in which China is transitioning to a state of stable energy consumption via a service-based economy and heavy investment in non-fossil energy sources. The book concludes that China may be set to reduce its carbon emissions by around two-thirds by 2050.
This Brief identifies various aspects of energy challenges faced by the Chinese central/local governments, and also provides an opportunity to study how best to achieve green growth and a low-carbon transition in a developing country like China. The progress of China’s carbon mitigation policies also has significant impacts on the on-going international climate change negotiations. Therefore, both policy- makers and decision-makers in China and other countries can benefit from studying the challenges and opportunities in China’s energy development.