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Originally called the Trans-Pacific Partnership until the USA withdrew in 2017, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is an ambitious and wide-ranging free trade agreement between eleven Pacific countries. Far from faltering after US withdrawal, several more countries have since applied to join, including China, Taiwan and the United Kingdom. Some observers see in this a contest between China and the USA for wider influence through an attempt to control or re-write the rules of international trade; at a minimum accession by any of the three would have a major impact on the CPTPP as originally envisaged. This edited volume considers the three applications, the motivations for the three to join, and the likely responses of existing members. The implications for cross-Strait tension between China and Taiwan are fully considered, as is the ability or willingness of the USA to influence the outcome of the applications.
Taiwan "is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war that involves the United States, China, and probably other major powers," warn Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history. In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. "The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence-without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan." "We do not think it is politically or militarily realistic to count on a U.S. military defeat of various kinds of Chinese assaults on Taiwan, uncoordinated with allies. Nor is it realistic to presume that, after such a frustrating clash, the United States would or should simply escalate to some sort of wide-scale war against China with comprehensive blockades or strikes against targets on the Chinese mainland." "If U.S. campaign plans postulate such unrealistic scenarios," the authors add, "they will likely be rejected by an American president and by the U.S. Congress." But, they observe, "the resulting U.S. paralysis would not be the result of presidential weakness or timidity. It might arise because the most powerful country in the world did not have credible options prepared for the most dangerous military crisis looming in front of it." Proposing "a realistic strategic objective for Taiwan, and the associated policy prescriptions, to sustain the political balance that has kept the peace for the last fifty years," the authors urge the Joe Biden administration to affirm that it is not trying to change Taiwan's status; work with its allies, especially Japan, to prepare new plans that could challenge Chinese military moves against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, yet put the burden of widening a war on China; and visibly plan, beforehand, for the disruption and mobilization that could follow a wider war, but without assuming that such a war would or should escalate to the Chinese, Japanese, or American homelands. "The horrendous global consequences of a war between the United States and China, most likely over Taiwan, should preoccupy the Biden team, beginning with the president," the authors conclude.
This book provides an analysis of the global trading system and its implications. The author uses network theory to examine the sustainability of the free trade system and its future. The book attempts to find out what the future of free trade could be and how the global trading system would unfold. The book assesses four main waves of challenges to free trade and open society: the COVID-19 pandemic, the US–China trade war, economic nationalism, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. While some of these challenges have been casting their shadows on the global economic system for some time, others are relatively novel, and their full effects are yet to be seen. This book also looks at the challenges they would present to multilateralism and global trade development. This book will interest those who wish to have a better understanding of the US–China trade war and the challenges to the global trading system.
"The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a free trade agreement involving major countries across the Asia Pacific region. The trade pact, which entered into force on 30 December 2018, is considered by many to be the “gold standard”, given its ambitious scope and depth. This volume offers multi-dimensional insights into the CPTPP and its impact on Southeast Asia. It begins with broad analyses covering the historical, economic and geopolitical aspects of the CPTPP. Subsequent chapters focus on the nature and implications of three key path-breaking provisions in the trade agreement, namely investor-state dispute settlement, intellectual property rights and state-owned enterprises. The effect of the CPTPP on Southeast Asia in terms of regional production networks is also examined from the perspective of Japanese multinational enterprises. The potential economic impact of the agreement is analysed for member countries (Vietnam and Malaysia) as well as countries that aspire to join the CPTPP in the future (Indonesia and Thailand). The world trading system is in disarray: the World Trade Organization has been weakened, perhaps terminally; the world’s two economic superpowers are locked in deep, politicized disputes; the forces of populism and nationalism are everywhere complicating the return to a more liberal, rules-based order. These trends are challenging one of the building blocks of ASEAN economic development, namely these countries’ outward-looking trade and investment policies. With impeccable timing this important volume by a group of eminent authors assesses these issues with reference to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The CPTPP excludes the three largest traders—China, the EU and the US—but it is a welcome second-best initiative that may have broader, positive ripple effects. This is the volume to read to gain a deeper understanding of the many complex issues at play." -- Hal Hill, H.W. Arndt Professor Emeritus of Southeast Asian Economies, College of Asia & the Pacific, Australian National University
"China's accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 was hailed as the natural conclusion of a long march that started with the reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping in the 1970s. However, China's participation in the WTO since joining has been anything but smooth, and its self-proclaimed "socialist market economy" system has alienated many of its global trading partners - as recent tensions with the United States exemplify. Prevailing diplomatic attitudes tend to focus on two diametrically opposing approaches to dealing with the emerging problems: the first is to demand that China completely overhaul its economic regime; the second is to stay idle and accept that the WTO must accommodate different economic regimes, no matter how idiosyncratic and incompatible. In this book, Mavroidis and Sapir propose a third approach. They point out that, while the WTO (as well as its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade [GATT]) has previously managed the accession of socialist countries or of big trading nations, it has never before dealt with a country as large or as powerful as China. Therefore, in order to simultaneously uphold its core principles and accommodate China's unique geopolitical position, the authors argue that the WTO needs to translate some of its implicit legal understanding into explicit treaty language. Focusing on two core complaints - that Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) benefit from unfair trade advantages, and that domestic companies (both private as well as SOEs) impose forced technology transfer on foreign companies as a condition for accessing the Chinese market - they lay out their specific proposals for successful legislative amendment"--.
The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2021 provides insight into key regional strategic, geopolitical, economic, military and security topics. Among the topics explored are: US−China decoupling and its regional security implications; Japan’s security policy and China; India’s emerging grand strategy; Southeast Asia amid rising great-power rivalry; Australia’s new regional security posture; NATO’s evolving approach to China; The United Kingdom’s ‘tilt’ to the Indo-Pacific; and Emerging technologies and future conflict in the Asia-Pacific. Authors include leading regional analysts and academics Kanti Bajpai, Gordon Flake, Franz-Stefan Gady, Prashanth Parameswaran, Alessio Patalano, Samir Puri, Sarah Raine, Tan See Seng, Drew Thompson, Ashley Townshend, Joanne Wallis and Robert Ward.
This book presents a post-COVID glimpse at how top Chinese policymakers and intellectuals understand China's future in global international relations, reviewing the global economy, China’s economy, society and diplomacy, and the international situation. Ten researchers review China’s diplomacy and give their outlooks in the book. Topics discussed include: the new round of technological revolution and Industrial Revolution, the role of WTO in developing countries, the ups and downs of the Sino-US and Sino-American rivalry, the functioning of the UN General Assembly from a Chinese perspective, China’s role in restoring the world after COVID-19 pandemic, and the Beijing-led Belt and Road Initiative. This book will be of interest to development economists, scholars of politics and international relations, and scholars of comparative politics.
This interdisciplinary book analyses the regional economic integration and its institutionalisation that has been pursued in East Asia since the late 1990s and its far-reaching impact for the entire region and beyond. It presents the specificity and evolution of East Asia’s economic integration as well as its outcomes in the form of an impressive number of FTAs concluded by East Asian countries. The book also addresses the region’s institutionalised regionalism of the 21st century, embodied by the recent establishment of two mega-regional institutions for trade and investment facilitation – Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), analysing their economic potential and impact on East Asian economies as well as on regions, including Europe. Additionally, the book offers a comprehensive analysis of integration theories, providing political and economic theories of integration and related conceptual discussions, which may help understand the uniqueness of the East Asian model of integration. The book will be useful for students and researchers in economics, international relations and political science, as well as government administrations and private businesses developing long-term strategic plans towards the region of East Asia.
This book is the first comprehensive exploration of the impact Brexit might have on both Britain’s and the EU’s role in a rising East Asia. From the internationalization of the renminbi to Hong Kong's fraught political status quo, and from former British colonies exploring their place in the world to America's place in East Asia in the Trump era, the EU plays an influential role in Asia today. However, much of this derives from Britain’s role and interests, even as Asian models were explicitly cited as models for post-Brexit Britain, particularly the Singaporean model. This book will be of value to scholars, policymakers, and journalists seeking to understand what role the EU and Britain will play in the Asian century.
This edited volume addresses geo-economic strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, exploring both the theoretical and thematic contours of this concept and issue-specific dynamics in the areas of finance, trade, energy, and technology competition. Chapters focus on the impact of renewed great power competition between Washington and Beijing in the Indo-Pacific region across these four areas. Each addresses central concerns for the future of the global economic order and offers a lens to understand interstate competition in light of the geopolitical shifts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Written by an international panel of experts, this volume provides a cohesive view of the region's most pressing issues. As such, it will be relevant to scholars specializing in Indo-Pacific domestic politics and foreign policy, U.S. foreign policy, middle powers, China-U.S. relations, China-EU relations, Asia-Pacific developments, international security, international political economy, and emerging markets.