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The China- India military confrontation in the High Himalayas as a consequence of Chinas military occupation of Tibet in 1950 and the unprovoked Chinese invasion of India in end-1962 has in 2015 graduated from a boundary dispute to an intense geopolitical tussle in Asias geopolitical rivalries. Tibet in realistic terms better and more precisely described as China Occupied Tibet has emerged as Chinas Core Issue and drives Chinas intractability in resolution of the China-inflicted boundary dispute and territorial grab of large tracts of Indian Territory. Though officially unstated, but equally true, Tibet is also a Core Issue for India, strategically. Tibet is civilisationally, culturally and spiritually more closely linked to India than China. The dimensions of China-India military confrontation stand radically transformed in the 21st Century with the insertion of the nuclear and maritime dimensions diluting Chinas coercive capabilities against India. The 21st Century is likely to witness an intense Cold War between China and India which most likely could be subsumed in the evolving Cold War II between China and the United States. Contextually, the United States can no longer afford to continue as passive spectator of the China-India military confrontation in the 21st Century. Evolving geopolitical compulsions and imperatives would ultimately force the United States to dispense with its strategic ambiguities on China and Pakistan and push the United States to stand-by India in the intensifying China-India military confrontation. Such a game-changer would ensure that the United States not only stands on the right side of history but also ensures the continued strategic embedment in Indo Pacific Asia of the United States, with Indias strategic support. Dr Subhash Kapila
Xi Jinping has made his ambitions for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) perfectly clear, there is no mystery what he wants, first, that China should become a "great maritime power" and secondly, that the PLA "become a world-class armed force by 2050." He wants this latter objective to be largely completed by 2035. China as a Twenty-First-Century Naval Power focuses on China's navy and how it is being transformed to satisfy the "world class" goal. Beginning with an exploration of why China is seeking to become such a major maritime power, author Michael McDevitt first explores the strategic rationale behind Xi's two objectives. China's reliance on foreign trade and overseas interests such as China's Belt and Road strategy. In turn this has created concerns within the senior levels of China's military about the vulnerability of its overseas interests and maritime life-lines. is a major theme. McDevitt dubs this China's "sea lane anxiety" and traces how this has required the PLA Navy to evolve from a "near seas"-focused navy to one that has global reach; a "blue water navy." He details how quickly this transformation has taken place, thanks to a patient step-by-step approach and abundant funding. The more than 10 years of anti-piracy patrols in the far reaches of the Indian Ocean has acted as a learning curve accelerator to "blue water" status. McDevitt then explores the PLA Navy's role in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. He provides a detailed assessment of what the PLAN will be expected to do if Beijing chooses to attack Taiwan potentially triggering combat with America's "first responders" in East Asia, especially the U.S. Seventh Fleet and U.S. Fifth Air Force. He conducts a close exploration of how the PLA Navy fits into China's campaign plan aimed at keeping reinforcing U.S. forces at arm's length (what the Pentagon calls anti-access and area denial [A2/AD]) if war has broken out over Taiwan, or because of attacks on U.S. allies and friends that live in the shadow of China. McDevitt does not know how Xi defines "world class" but the evidence from the past 15 years of building a blue water force has already made the PLA Navy the second largest globally capable navy in the world. This book concludes with a forecast of what Xi's vision of a "world-class navy" might look like in the next fifteen years when the 2035 deadline is reached.
NATIONAL BESTSELLER | NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR. From an eminent international security scholar, an urgent examination of the conditions that could produce a catastrophic conflict between the United States and China—and how it might be prevented. China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve. At the time of publication, an unstoppable China approached an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promised to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case was looking grim—it still is. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war. In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today. SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON)* AMAZON “Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.” — President Joe Biden “[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — Boston Globe “[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— New York Times Book Review
In this lucid, informative, and insightful book, a leading expert on the subject decodes the complex history of India-China relations and argues that the path ahead is a difficult one that could see more military confrontations, including violent border clashes.
This edited volume explores and analyses strategic thinking, military reform and adaptation in an era of Asian growth, European austerity and US rebalancing. A significant shift in policy, strategy and military affairs is underway in both Asia and Europe, with the former gaining increasing prominence in the domain of global security. At the same time, the world’s powers are now faced with an array of diverse challenges. The resurgence of great power politics in both Europe and Asia, along with the long term threats of terrorism, piracy and sustained geopolitical instability has placed great strain on militaries and security institutions operating with constrained budgets and wary public support. The volume covers a wide range of case studies, including the transformation of China’s military in the 21st century, the internal and external challenges facing India, Russia’s military modernization program and the USA’s reassessment of its strategic interests. In doing so, the book provides the reader with the opportunity to conceptualize how strategic thinking, military reform, operational adaptation and technological integration have interacted with the challenges outlined above. With contributions by leading scholars and practitioners from Europe and Asia, this book provides a valuable contribution to the understanding of strategic and operational thinking and adjustment across the world. This book will be of much interest to students of military and strategic studies, security studies, defence studies, Asian politics, Russian politics, US foreign policy and IR in general.
This book deals with the evolution, current status and potential of U.S.-India strategic cooperation. From very modest beginnings, the U.S.-India strategic partnership has developed significantly over the last decade. In considerable part, this growth has stemmed from overlapping concerns about the rise and assertiveness of the People’s Republic of China, as well as the instability of Pakistan. Despite the emergence of this partnership, significant differences remain, some of which stem from Cold War legacies, others from divergent global strategic interests and institutional design. In spite of these areas of discord, the overall trajectory of the relationship appears promising. Increased cooperation and closer policy coordination underscore a deepening of the relationship, while fundamental differences in national approaches to strategic challenges demand flexibility and compromise in the future.
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
This book looks at the emerging power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region and locates India and its interests within the overarching geostrategic framework. With US and China emerging as leading players within the region, the book analyses the challenges to India’s foreign policy in the face of new alliances, counter-alliances, and great power equations that have formed after the Cold War. It discusses important issues such as China’s strategic forays in the Indian Ocean, the balance of power between countries, India’s Act East opportunities, Russia’s re-engagement in the region, the South China Sea dispute, India’s maritime strategy, and the conundrum of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue facing India. A comprehensive study of the changing geopolitical and geostrategic environment of the Indo-Pacific region, the book will be an essential read for scholars and researchers of international relations, global politics, foreign policy, maritime studies, Chinese studies, South Asian studies, geopolitics, and strategic studies.