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The pandemic hit the Chilean economy while it was recovering from the 2019 social unrest. The authorities’ swift and strong economic policy efforts and Chile’s very strong institutional frameworks helped buffer the economic and social consequences. The ongoing economic recovery continues to be supported by ample policy stimulus, a rapid vaccination process, well-anchored inflation expectations, a resilient export base, and continued market confidence.
Following the overheating in 2021–22, the economy is approaching the end of its adjustment cycle towards more sustainable growth and lower inflation in a challenging external environment. The authorities are implementing very strong policies to preserve macroeconomic stability. The government has reform ambitions to raise tax revenues, reduce inequality, reform pensions and health care, and foster a green economy but is encountering strong resistance in a fragmented Congress.
Peru’s very strong macroeconomic policies and institutional policy frameworks have helped anchor strong growth and stability over the past several years and navigate the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The confluence of a sound inflation-targeting regime, flexible exchange rate, credible fiscal framework, reflected in very low public debt, and sound financial sector supervision and regulation have allowed the country to deploy a robust policy response to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the pandemic while sustaining strong access to international capital markets. Following the worst economic contraction in 30 years, economic activity is expected to rebound this year as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out, and the pandemic is gradually brought under control. Real GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by 2022, supported by improved terms-of-trade and a pick-up in domestic demand. The second round of presidential elections is scheduled for June 6.
COVID-19 has taken a severe toll on Colombia’s society and economy—including over 60,000 deaths and over 5 million jobs temporarily lost in Colombia’s largest recession on record. A gradual but uneven recovery led by private domestic demand and manufacturing is underway, but services continue to be weak. While the economy had remained resilient before the pandemic owing to very strong policy frameworks, economic activity is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.
The imbalances built during the pandemic have been largely resolved shifting priorities to supporting stronger, more inclusive and greener medium-term growth. The near-term outlook has improved, primarily due to higher copper prices and prospects for increased lithium production. In this context, policies are focused on creating conditions to add dynamism to the economy such as expediting investment permits while continuing with reforms to increase tax revenue and reduce inequality. The authorities remain fully committed to maintaining very strong policies and policy frameworks.
The Chilean economy has rapidly recovered from the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, thanks to an impressive vaccination campaign and effective policy support. The authorities will continue leveraging on Chile’s very strong fundamentals and policy frameworks to safeguard the recovery, preserve macroeconomic stability, and boost inclusive and green growth.
This paper discusses Poland’s performance under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement. In recent years, Poland’s macroeconomic policies have focused on further strengthening fundamentals and institutional frameworks. Fiscal consolidation has led to an exit from the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Monetary policy has been eased to help lift inflation. Financial sector supervision has been strengthened with a new macroprudential framework. Reserves are broadly adequate against standard metrics. The new government has pledged to maintain prudent policies, including gradual fiscal consolidation over the medium term, and to ensure the continued stability of the banking system. In the period ahead, it will be important to identify specific growth-friendly measures to underpin the fiscal adjustment and reduce implementation risk.
Peru’s long track record of very strong economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks allowed the country to deploy a robust policy response to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and a subsequent successful withdrawal, while preserving macroeconomic stability and sustaining ample access to international capital markets. GDP growth slowed in 2022, falling below potential as the policy stimulus was withdrawn, the external backdrop turned more challenging, and political instability weighed on private investment. Growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023 and to converge gradually to potential over the medium term. Inflation rose in line with international trends but is expected to fall towards the upper end of the target range by year-end. The macroeconomic policy mix is broadly appropriate.
Colombia’s very strong track record of macroeconomic policy management, underpinned by robust fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, has reduced vulnerabilities in recent years and helped weather the global financial crisis. The authorities’ policy focus has shifted from supporting the recovery through appropriate countercyclical measures to rebuilding policy buffers through fiscal consolidation, the normalization of monetary policy, and a strengthening of the reserve position.
Economic activity is decelerating, and inflation pressures are receding. The fiscal deficit is expected to register a substantial increase in 2024. Mexico maintains sizable buffers, a strong external position, and effective financial oversight. A range of supply-side reforms will be needed to catalyze lasting higher growth.